1. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 1Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“ Contents: Overview: The Idea Susceptibility - Bottom-up perspective - Top-down perspective Environmental Stress: Water GAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

2. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 2Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen „Security Diagrams“ - Team Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination) Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Aike Müller Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Richard Klein, Dr. Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Sabine Campe Torsten Grothmann Dr. Frank Biermann Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

3. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 3Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Susceptibility Environmental stress What are Security Diagrams? Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary No crises event Crises event High probability of crises Low probability of crises

4. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 4Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Advantages of Security Diagrams Combine concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility and crisis in a single model. Treat the impacts of climate change as the probability of occurrence of an event  expresses uncertainty. Give compact presentation of large amount of complex historical data. Provide a way to understand the future based on insights from the past. Can be used to generate global maps of “hot spot countries”  frequently at risk. Can be used to generate scenarios of future risk to countries. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

5. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 5Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Disadvantages of Security Diagrams Cannot substitute for detailed studies of risk and adaptation in different countries or regions. Cannot provide enough information for designing detailed adaptation strategies. Based on concepts (stress, susceptibility and crisis) that are …  poorly-defined;  difficult to quantify;  do not take full advantage of research in the social sciences. In this project, we focus on this last paragraph. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

6. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 6Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Goal of Project To improve the method of Security Diagrams in order to better understand the relationship between extreme climate events and risks to society … … by improving the definitions of the three inputs to these diagrams: environmental stress susceptibility crisis Focus: Climate-related water shortages. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

7. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 7Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Expected Results Interdisciplinary Cooperation – Coupling between approaches from the social and natural sciences Further development of the concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility, crisis … and therefore the improvement of the “Security Diagram” method. … and with this improvement, a better understanding of the relationship between extreme climate events and risks to society. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

8. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 8Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Procedure 1.Select indicators and data protocol according to concepts 2.Collect data from case study regions: Southern Portugal (Adelphi Research) Volga region, Russia (CESR Kassel) Region of India (PIK) 3.Pool data in top-down, bottom-up data base: Top-down – regional “averages”, central statistics Bottom up – population groups, population survey 4.Use fuzzy set theory to quantify … environmental stress susceptibility crisis From 3 perspectives … environmental psychology/sociology political science economic 5.Compare results from different perspectives; generate new security diagrams Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

9. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 9Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Fuzzy set theory … … is a mathematical tool to quantify uncertain, fuzzy inputs. … starts with a theory based conceptual model that identifies - influence factors and - relationships between these factors (inference). … can be used to compare different perspectives and different indicators with one methodology. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

10. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 10Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Environ- mental stress Exposure Degree of being affected Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Conception Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Environmental psychology Political Capacity & Willingness Political science Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Economic Susceptibility Social Susceptibility Economic Dependency Agriculture Infrastructure Income Social Services Health & Education Demographic Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

11. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 11Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Environ- mental stress Exposure Degree of being affected Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Conception Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Environmental psychology Political Capacity & Willingness Political science Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Economic Susceptibility Social Susceptibility Economic Dependency Agriculture Infrastructure Income Social Services Health & Education Demographic Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

12. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 12Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Costs/Barriers Response Efficacy Self Efficacy Coping Appraisal = Competence Action: adaptive or not adaptive Severity Probability Fear/personal concern Appraisal of Threat = Motivation External Factors Perception based appraisal process Degree of being affecte d Values Action Theory: “Protection Motivation” Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

13. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 13Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Procedure Explorative questionnaires, partly qualitative/quantitative: - Threat appraisal: Threatened values, consequences, past experiences - Coping appraisal: Barriers, resources, possible actions - Sociodemographic factors: Dependency ratio, dependency from agricultural sector Questionnaire development and pre-tests in cooperation with local partners Survey with 52 households (rural and urban), 17 experts Quantitative model: structural equation analysis Fuzzy system for calculation of “susceptibility” Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

14. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 14Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Moderate Actions “at place” Dependency Ratio Anticipation of Negative Consequences Coping Appraisal = Competence Actions of Crisis e.g. migration Appraisal of Threat = Motivation “Easy” Actions e.g. technical solutions Threatened Values Past Experience Barriers Financial Resources Agricultural Resources Overall Ability + + + + - + + - - - The Quantitative Model: Action in the Centre + Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

15. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 15Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Susceptibility from Top-down Perspectives Regional Susceptibility is assessed from a - political science perspective and an - economic perspective 1.Step: Development of a conceptual model (Theory, Assumptions, Hypotheses, Operationalization) 2.Step: Data collection in cooperation with local partners 3.Step: Data Analysis and Fuzzy Set Application 4.Step: Discussion of preliminary results with the project group 5.Refining of the models and second Data Analysis Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

16. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 16Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Environ- mental stress Exposure Degree of being affected Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Conception Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Environmental psychology Political Capacity & Willingness Political science Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Economic Susceptibility Social Susceptibility Economic Dependency Agriculture Infrastructure Income Social Services Health & Education Demographic Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

17. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 17Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Stress Factors from the environing system Degrees of Susceptibility Economic Situation & Sector Susceptibility Social Stability & Social Imbalance Endangerment of Pattern Reproduction Political Capacity & Political Willingness PolSus EcoSus SocSus CulSus Endangerment of a system‘s subfunctions Political Science: “Functional Differentiation of Societies” Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

18. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 18Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Relative State Capacity Relative Willingness PolSus Action obstacles (as Degrees of Conflict Involvement) Resource Availability (as Tax Revenue) Obstacles to Inter. (as Degrees of corruption) Social Intervention (Health Expenditures) Illustration: The Political Dimension Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary Database: I Poldim willingness capacity

19. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 19Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Environ- mental stress Exposure Degree of being affected Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Conception Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Environmental psychology Political Capacity & Willingness Political science Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Economic Susceptibility Social Susceptibility Economic Dependency Agriculture Infrastructure Income Social Services Health & Education Demographic Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

20. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 20Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Economic Indicators Legend: Social Indicators Economy: Economic and Social Theories LocalNationalRegional Social Services: 1. Education expenditure 2. Health expenditure 3. Emergency programs Demographic: 1. Life expectancy at birth 2. Infant mortality rate 3. Population Dependency: 1. External debt 2. Net com’l. energy imports 3. Trade balance Infrastructure: 1. Hydroelectric power 2. Irrigation Agriculture: 1. Size of agriculture sector 2. Agricultural employees 3. Added value of agr. Workers Health & Education: 1. Number of doctors 2. Immunisations 3. Illiteracy Income: 1. Tax Revenue 2. GDP per capita 3. Income distribution Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

21. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 21Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Local Income/cap. Health Education Mortality Life expectancy population Regional Agriculture Infrastructure Public investment National Debt Trade Susceptibility Index External Debt Energy imports Trade balance Size agriculture Labour force Value added Hydroelectric Irrigation Number of doctors Immunisations Illiteracy Education expen. Health expen. Tax Revenue GDP per capita Gini coefficient Number of doctors Immunisations Illiteracy Dependency Human Well-being & Development Theory Agriculture Infrastructure Income Social Services Health & Education Demographic Economic Growth & Development Theory Social Susceptibility Economic Susceptibility Illustration: The Economic Dimension Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

22. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 22Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen The quantification of water stress – the model WaterGAP WaterGAP is … a global water use and availability model, that computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge, at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. WaterGAP is … based on the best global data sets currently available and calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations which represent about 50% of the global land area. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

23. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 23Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Model overview climate drainage direction land cover slope hydrogeology permafrost Global Hydrology Model water availability surface runoff groundwater recharge river discharge Global Water Use Model withdrawal and consumptive water use irrigation, livestock, domestic, industry climate irrigates areas livestock population national estimates of domestic and industrial use water stress discharge reduction Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

24. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 24Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Indicators of water resources Annual fresh water withdrawals as % of water resources Water availability per capita Percentage of area under stress (WTA > 0,4) Percentage of population under stress Deviation of water availability from long time average Bernhard Lehner water stress index Annual groundwater recharge Actual Evapotranspiration Standard precipitation index Palmer drought severity index Used indicators Water stress index selection of best addition maximum of all statistical approach fuzzy set theory Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

25. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 25Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen The Question of Crises Definitions Working Definition: Crisis: an unstable and crucial time or state of affairs in which decisive change is impending, especially one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome. In respect to the environment this means that the undesirable outcome is brought on by environmental stress and extraordinary emergency measures to counteract are required. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

26. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 26Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Collection of Crises Indicators: Progress up to now Sources for a quantification : Global databases (EM-DAT) Insights from the bottom up questionnaires Insights from Emergency Plans Media Analysis Identification of alternative sources: - Contact to local authorities, companies - Identification of specific deviations of a long-term trend (crop yield, unemployment) Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

27. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 27Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Barriers (Question 6) Not agrarian resources (Question 13) Agrarian resources (Question 13) Dependency from agriculture (Question 14) Technical measures (Question 5) „At place“ measures (Question 5) Suscep- tibility Appraisal of coping capacity Appraisal of threat The Method: Fuzzy Set Theory Experience with drought (Question 1, 2) Threatened values (Question 4) Dependency from agriculture (Question 14) Emotions related to drought (Question 8) Dependency ratio (Question 11) Likeliness of negative consequences (Question 3) Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary Conceptual model

28. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 28Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Output variable Suscep- tibility Appraisal of coping capacity Appraisal of threat Input variables Inference (Rulesystem) Inference (Rule- system) if … and … then … Calculation procedure Fuzzification LowMediumHigh LowMediumHigh Defuzzification Very low Medium Very high LowHigh Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

29. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 29Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Example of fuzzyfication Appraisal of threat Example: Input value of Appraisal of threat = 0,2 Result: Membership of input value to category High = 0,0 and Membership of input value to category Medium = 0,2 and Membership of input value to category Low = 0,8 0,2 0,8 LowMediumHigh Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

30. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 30Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Example of inference and defuzzyfication Appraisal of threat high = 0,0 medium = 0,2 low = 0,8 Appraisal of coping capacity high = 0,0 medium = 0,4 low = 0,6 Inference (Rulesystem) Rule 1: If threat is low and coping is low then susceptibility is very high. Susceptibility [very high] = min (threat [Low]; coping [Low]) = min (0,8; 0,6) = 0,6 Rule 2: If threat is low and coping is medium then susceptibility is high. Susceptibility [high] = min (threat [low]; coping [medium]) = min (0,8; 0,4) = 0,4 … Rule 9: … Very low Medium Very high LowHigh 0,6 0,4 0,8 Susceptibility = 0,8 Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

31. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 31Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Advantages of fuzzy set theory Theory based procedure Unique result of uncertain, fuzzy input No subjective thresholds Use of indicators of different types and scale Disadvantages of fuzzy set theory Difficult to describe and reproduce Subjectivity Complexity when using many variables Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

32. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 32Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Summary 1. Select indicators and data protocol according to concepts 2. Collect data from case study regions: - Southern Portugal (Adelphi Research) - Volga region, Russia (CESR Kassel) - Region of India (PIK) 3.Pool data in top-down, bottom-up data base: - Top-down – regional “averages”, central statistics - Bottom up – population groups, population survey 4.Use fuzzy set theory to quantify … - environmental stress - susceptibility - crisis From 3 perspectives … - environmental psychology/sociology - political science -economic 5.Compare results from different perspectives; generate new security diagrams Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary

33. Frank EierdanzFrank Eierdanz (Center for Environmental Systems Research, Kassel); Dennis Tänzler (Adelphi Research, Berlin)Slide 33Dennis Tänzler Security Diagrams Improving a New Approach to Assessing the Risk of Extreme Climate Events on Society DEKLIM C 19.11.2002 Bremen Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary Thank you very much! Questions?