1. Military Deception and Counter Deception IW-120 College of Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education

2. INFORMATION SUPERIORITY INFORMATION OPERATIONS AFDD 2-5 Successfully executed Information Operations achieve information superiority ISR Precision Nav & Position Other Info Collection/ Dissemination Activities PAO Weather INFORMATION-in-WARFARE exploitgain INFORMATION WARFARE DEFENSIVE COUNTERINFORMATION OFFENSIVE COUNTERINFORMATION Counter- Intelligence Information Assurance OPSEC Counter- Propaganda Counter- Deception Electronic Protect CNDPAO PSYOP Physical Attack Military Deception Electronic Warfare PAO CNA defend attack

3. Overview l Deception -- “the lie” l Deception in nature l Deception & the individual l Military deception – Deception in practice – Levels of military deception l Counter-deception

4. Deception: “To deceive..” “mislead by a false appearance or statement” The Random House College Dictionary

5. Some Statistics “LYING: A WAY OF LIFE” THE DAY AMERICA TOLD THE TRUTH (PRENTICE HALL)...OVER 90% LIE ROUTINELY (SAY WHAT OTHERS WANT TO HEAR) TO: – PARENTS86%ABOUT FEELINGS81% – FRIENDS75%INCOME43% – SIBLINGS73%SEX40% – SPOUSES69%

6. Mark Twain suggested that, “When in doubt, tell the truth. It will confound your enemies and astound your friends.” "Though fraud in other activities may be detestable, in the management of war it is laudable and glorious, and he who overcomes the enemy by fraud is as much to be praised as he who does so by force." --Machiavelli

7. Deception in Nature

8. Deception and the Individual

9. Target Assessment PAST BEHAVIOR OTHER VARIABLES DECISION MAKING STRUCTURE PSYCHOLOGICAL BIASES CULTURAL IMPACT INFLUENCES THAT AFFECT PERCEPTIONS

10. Military Deception … actions executed to deliberately mislead adversary military decision makers as to friendly military capabilities, intentions, and operations, thereby causing the adversary to take specific actions (or inactions) that will contribute to the accomplishment of the friendly mission. All warfare is based on deception. Sun Tzu, The Art of War, 500BC AFDD 2-5

11. Deception Philosophy uses Perception Management l Make the adversary commander see the battlefield a certain way l Based on biases, we seek to reinforce the adversary’s own ideas of reality l Confuse, delay, or stop the O-O-D part of the OODA Loop l Condition the adversary

12. Deception’s Primary Goal Support the Commander’s mission and concept of operations – Cause adversary to incorrectly employ forces – Cause adversary to reveal strengths, weaknesses, dispositions and future intentions – Overload adversary intelligence and analysis capability – Condition adversary to patterns that can be exploited – Cause adversary to waste combat power (Cause the adversary to lose)

13. Maxims to “Lie” By l Reinforcing a perception is easier than changing l Use lots of truth l Too much ambiguity can mask the story l Sequence deception events to avoid saturation l Give the story through a number of media l Avoid windfall inputs l Feedback increases the chances of success l Plan for “what if?”

14. Levels of Military Deception Strategic Military Deception Operational Military Deception Tactical Military Deception Service Military Deception At the national level - Example: “Star Wars” At the theater/CINC level - Example: “Operation Fortitude”

15. No major operation should be undertaken without planning and executing appropriate deceptive measures... There should continue in being a nucleus of personnel capable of handling these arts in case an emergency arises.Dwight D. Eisenhower June 19, 1947

16. Operation Fortitude l Fortitude North – Norway and other Scandinavian countries Tie down 13 Army divisions; 58K Luftwaffe; 89K Naval -- total: 372K Axis personnel Based on the idea of a joint American-British-Russian invasion Maintained for 2 months after the invasion l Fortitude South – Pas de Calais Divert forces from the Normandy area Based on Lt Gen Patton leading the invasion Developed “Ghost” divisions as the invasion force; fictional army of approx one million

17. “The Man Who Never Was”

18. Levels of Military Deception Strategic Military Deception Operational Military Deception Tactical Military Deception Service Military Deception At the national level - Example: “Star Wars” At the theater/CINC level - Example: “Operation Fortitude” On the battlefield - Example: Camouflage/Concealment/Decoy

19. Deception Techniques HIDE THE REAL - SHOW THE FAKE (DISSIMULATION) (SIMULATION) MASKING REPACKAGING DAZZLING MIMICKING INVENTING DECOYING

20. Levels of Military Deception Strategic Military Deception Operational Military Deception Tactical Military Deception Service Military Deception At the national level - Example: “Star Wars” At the theater/CINC level - Example: “Operation Fortitude” On the battlefield - Example: Camouflage/Concealment/Decoy Air Force - Example: “Operation Bolo”

21. Operation BoloVietnam Jan ‘67 MIG-21 Fishbed F-4 Phantom II RF-4C F-105 Thunderchief

22. Counter-Deception … those efforts to negate, neutralize, diminish the effects of, or gain advantage from a foreign deception operation.   Depends on intelligence operations to contribute to awareness of the adversary   Can ensure friendly decision makers are aware of adversary deception activities in order to take appropriate action AFDD 2-5

23. Counter-Deception Basics l Anyone can use deception – Advanced technology not required l We have perceptions and biases also l Some nations are better liars than others

24. Counter-Deception Questions l Is our perception consistent with the most obvious and reasonable ways the adversary may act? l Was information received from normal channels? Can it be corroborated? l What is missing? l Who tells the King he has no clothes?

25. Counter-Deception Tips l Intelligence personnel should seek philosophical help from staff deception experts l Devil’s advocate: Try to strip our biases l Every deception has cracks and seams l Be wary of windfalls l Small bits of information are usually unreliable

26. When We Were Had l Battle of the Bulge – The Germans are beat!!! We’ll be home by... l Cuban Missile Crisis – The Russians would never do that! l Tet Offensive – The “war” is almost over…