1. Regression analysis Linear regression Logistic regression

2. Relationship and association 2

3. Straight line 3

4. Best straight line? 4

5. Best straight line! 5 Least square estimation

6. Simple linear regression 1.Is the association linear? 6

7. Simple linear regression 1.Is the association linear? 2.Describe the association: what is b 0 and b 1 BMI = -12.6kg/m 2 +0.35kg/m 3 *Hip 7

8. Simple linear regression 1.Is the association linear? 2.Describe the association 3.Is the slope significantly different from 0? Help SPSS!!! 8 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients tSig. BStd. ErrorBeta 1(Constant)-12,5812,331-5,396,000 Hip,345,023,56515,266,000 a. Dependent Variable: BMI

9. Simple linear regression 1.Is the association linear? 2.Describe the association 3.Is the slope significantly different from 0? 4.How good is the fit? How far are the data points fom the line on avarage? 9

10. The Correlation Coefficient, r 10 R = 0 R = 1 R = 0.7 R = -0.5

11. r 2 – Goodness of fit How much of the variation can be explained by the model? 11 R 2 = 0 R 2 = 1 R 2 = 0.5 R 2 = 0.2

12. Multiple linear regression Could waist measure descirbe some of the variation in BMI? BMI =1.3 kg/m 2 + 0.42 kg/m 3 * Waist Or even better: 12

13. Multiple linear regression Adding age: adj R 2 = 0.352 Adding thigh: adj R 2 = 0.352? 13 Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients tSig. 95,0% Confidence Interval for B BStd. ErrorBetaLower BoundUpper Bound 1(Constant)-9,0012,449-3,676,000-13,813-4,190 Waist,168,043,2013,923,000,084,252 Hip,252,031,4118,012,000,190,313 Age-,064,018-,126-3,492,001-,101-,028 a. Dependent Variable: BMI Coefficients a Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients tSig. 95,0% Confidence Interval for B BStd. ErrorBetaLower BoundUpper Bound 1(Constant)3,5811,7842,007,045,0757,086 Waist,168,043,2013,923,000,084,252 Age-,064,018-,126-3,492,001-,101-,028 Thigh,252,031,4118,012,000,190,313 a. Dependent Variable: BMI

14. Assumptions 1.Dependent variable must be metric continuous 2.Independent must be continuous or ordinal 3.Linear relationship between dependent and all independent variables 4.Residuals must have a constant spread. 5.Residuals are normal distributed 6.Independent variables are not perfectly correlated with each other 14

15. Multiple linear regression in SPSS 15

16. Click ‘statistics’ and ‘plots’ 16

17. Logistic regression 17

18. Logistic Regression If the dependent variable is categorical and especially binary? Use some interpolation method Linear regression cannot help us. 18

19. 19 The sigmodal curve

20. 20 The sigmodal curve The intercept basically just ‘scale’ the input variable

21. 21 The sigmodal curve The intercept basically just ‘scale’ the input variable Large regression coefficient → risk factor strongly influences the probability

22. 22 The sigmodal curve The intercept basically just ‘scale’ the input variable Large regression coefficient → risk factor strongly influences the probability Positive regression coefficient → risk factor increases the probability Logistic regession uses maximum likelihood estimation, not least square estimation

23. Does age influence the diagnosis? Continuous independent variable 23 Variables in the Equation BS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) 95% C.I.for EXP(B) LowerUpper Step 1 a Age,109,010108,7451,0001,1151,0921,138 Constant-4,213,42399,0971,000,015 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Age.

24. Simple logistic regression in SPSS 24

25. Does previous intake of OCP influence the diagnosis? Categorical independent variable Variables in the Equation BS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) 95% C.I.for EXP(B) LowerUpper Step 1 a OCP(1)-,311,1802,9791,084,733,5151,043 Constant,233,1233,5831,0581,263 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: OCP. 25

26. Odds ratio 26

27. Simple logistic regression with catagorical predictor in SPSS 27

28. Multiple logistic regression Variables in the Equation BS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) 95% C.I.for EXP(B) LowerUpper Step 1 a Age,123,011115,3431,0001,1311,1061,157 BMI,083,01918,7321,0001,0871,0461,128 OCP,528,2195,8081,0161,6951,1042,603 Constant-6,974,76283,7771,000,001 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Age, BMI, OCP. 28

29. Predicting the diagnosis by logistic regression What is the probability that the tumor of a 50 year old woman who has been using OCP and has a BMI of 26 is malignant? z = -6.974 + 0.123*50 + 0.083*26 + 0.28*1 = 1.6140 p = 1/(1+e -1.6140 ) = 0.8340 29 Variables in the Equation BS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) 95% C.I.for EXP(B) LowerUpper Step 1 a Age,123,011115,3431,0001,1311,1061,157 BMI,083,01918,7321,0001,0871,0461,128 OCP,528,2195,8081,0161,6951,1042,603 Constant-6,974,76283,7771,000,001 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: Age, BMI, OCP.

30. Multiple logistic regression in SPSS 30

31. Opgaver 17.1+3+4+7+8 18.1+3+4 Vis at odds = e z 31