1. CRIME AND THE RECENT FINANCIAL CRISIS A STUDY ON CRIME IN NORTH CAROLINA FROM 2007-2009

2. INTRODUCTION 2

3.  Conventional Wisdom: “street” crime is countercyclical  Controversy: many exceptions  1982: year the worst postwar recession hit bottom  1960s: period of sustained economic growth and declining unemployment 3

4. EXAMPLES OF WHY MIGHT CRIME BE LINKED TO ECONOMIC CONDITIONS 1.Legitimate Opportunities 2.Criminal Opportunities 3.Use of Criminogenic Commodities 4.The Criminal Justice System Response to Crime 4

5. LITERATURE REVIEW 5

6. SOCIAL ASPECTS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE – THOMAS (1927) Related various detrended measures of crime with an indicator of business conditions for Britain Findings Robbery and Burglary (-.44) Larceny (-.25) Violent Crimes (+.06) 6

7. AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CRIME AND PUNISHMENT IN ENGLAND AND WALES, 1894-1967 – WOLPIN (1978) Analyzed unemployment, GDP per capita, and weekly wage for manual manufacturing workers against crime data Findings: Robbery and burglary Homicide 7

8. CRIME AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE – COOK AND ZARKIN (1985) “For two important types of crimes, robbery and burglary, there is strong evidence of a countercyclical pattern. Recessions do indeed increase the rate at which these crimes are committed. These conclusions are supported by both nonparametric and regression analysis of U.S. crime rates since 1933.” 8

9. WHAT HAPPENED DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2007- 2009? 9

10. 10 YEAR CRIME TREND IN NORTH CAROLINA 10 Source: North Carolina Department of Justice

11. 2007-2009: DECLINE IN CRIME IN NC 11 Source: North Carolina Department of Justice, Census Estimates

12. 2007-2009: DECLINE IN CRIME IN NC 12 Source: North Carolina Department of Justice, Census Estimates

13. WHY DID CRIME NOT INCREASE? 1.Drug Markets A.1970’s: Heroin B.Late 1980’s – Early 1990’s: Crack 2.Policing A.Compstat-type accountability systems B.Real-time crime information 3.Target Hardening A.Cell phones/cameras B.New car security systems 13

14. WHY DID CRIME NOT INCREASE? 4.Economic Stimulus A.Economic stimulus spending, especially unemployment benefits 5.Declining Criminal Opportunities A.High unemployment rates -> occupied houses B.People carry less cash/valuables 6.Demographics A.Median age at highest point ever in 2010 7.Incarceration A.US has highest incarceration rate 14