1. The Hume Workforce Development Committee Hume Regional Development Australia Retail Trade Labour Market Snapshot Workforce Planning Australia | December 2012

2. Retail Trade Industry Overview Retail Trade employs approximately 1,211,700 persons, full time and part time, which is around 10.6 per cent of the total workforce. Over the past five years, employment in the industry has increased at a rate of 0.3 per cent per annum. The median age for workers in this industry is 32 years and median earnings are around $850 per week (before tax) for full-time employees. In the 2010–11 financial year, the retail sector contributed nearly $60.8 billion (4.7%) to Australia’s GDP. 2 | Source: DEEWR Skills info, 2012 (1) Source: SSA Environmental Scan, 2012 (2)

3. Retail Trade Industry Segments The Retail Trade industry is roughly divided into fourteen sectors: 3 | Supermarket and Grocery Stores Pharmaceutical and Other Store-Based Retail Clothing, Footwear and Accessory Retail Specialised Food Retail Department Stores Hardware, Building and Garden Supplies Retail Motor Vehicle Retail Recreational Goods Retail Electrical and Electronic Goods Retail Furniture, Floor Coverings, House ware and Textile Retail Fuel Retail Motor Vehicle Parts and Tyre Retail Non-Store Retail Commission- Based Retail (Buying and Selling) Source: DEEWR, Australian Jobs, 2011

4. Retail Trade Industry Developments A recent development in retail has been the introduction of ‘group shopping’ which involves awarding ‘bulk’ discounts to a predefined minimum number of customers online. Similarly, online private shopping clubs are providing offers from brands with surplus stock that are marketed exclusively to members through online channels. Industry feedback has indicated that these models are proving to be highly successful. The introduction of the private label model has also been a substantial factor in the changing structure of retail. Private label retailing involves the exclusive retail of ‘unbranded’ goods. The most recent development has been the introduction of ‘premium’ private labels to market consumers more traditionally focused on quality. This industry trend has resulted in the need to broaden skills to include product design, marketing and inventory control, which are skills traditionally reserved for manufacturers. Customer self-service options have also been a recent and significant development in retail, particularly in the supermarket industry. Research has shown that Australian consumers have embraced this model at twice the rate of consumers in Europe & the US. There have been some concerns that this development is effectively transferring the work of the check-out operator to consumers and will decrease labour requirements. However, there is scope for this development to increase the skills required of staff. In particular, this technology requires enhanced problem solving capabilities, as well as digital literacy. 4 | Source: SSA Environmental Scan, 2012

5. National Industry Overview

6. Retail Trade Industry Employment Arts and Recreation Services is the third smallest of 19 industries classified under ANZICS. In August 2012 approximately 218,000 people were employed in the industry. 6 | Source: ABS Labour Force Survey (trend data) cat no 6291.0.55.003, DEEWR, Skills Info 2012. Industry Employment Level February 2012

7. Retail Trade Industry Employment In August 2012 total employment in the industry was 1,211,700 people. Employment has been variable over the last five years with minor fluctuations. 7 | Source: DEEWR Skillsinfo, 2012

8. Employment by Industry Sector 8 | Figure: Employment levels by industry sector 2012 Source: ABS Labour Force Survey cat. no. 6291.0.55.003, (trend data The largest industry sector is Supermarket, Grocery Stores, accounting for 292, 300 workers (24.4 % of employment at May 2012). Pharmaceutical, Other-store Based Retail is the second largest employing sector employing 153, 100 workers (11.8%) followed by Clothing, Footwear, Accessory Retail (147, 100 workers or 11.2%).

9. Projected Employment Growth by Industry Sector 9 | Source: DEEWR, Finance and Insurance Services Employment Outlook 2012 ( DEEWR Employment Projections to 2016-17) Project employment growth is expected to vary significantly across industry segments. Over the next 5 years growth is predicted to be strongest in Non-store retail (5.9%) followed by Specialised Food Retail (2.9%) and Clothing etc. (1.9%). Segments predicted to decline include:  Recreational Goods (-2.4%)  Dept stores (-2%)  Retail Commission-Based buying, selling (-1.4%).

10. Employment by Region The distribution of industry employment tends to correspond with population distribution. Melbourne has the highest industry employment (17.5% or 227, 900 workers) Sydney accounts for another 16.9% (or 220,200 people) of employment. 10 | Figure 4: Retail Trade Employment by Region August 2012 Source: DEEWR, Finance and Insurance Services Employment Outlook 2012

11. Projected Employment Growth by Region Projected employment growth over the next five years is strongest in Victoria (20.5%) and N.S.W (5%). Over the long term (next 10 years) DEEWR predicts the strongest employment growth to be in N.S.W (40.5%), Queensland (40%) and Victoria (37.5%). Queensland will contract significantly over the next 5 years (-11.2%). S.A and the A.C.T will also decline. 11 | Figure 4: Projected Employment Growth by Region August 2012 Source: DEEWR, Finance and Insurance Services Employment Outlook 2012

12. Top Employing Occupations 12 | Employment is concentrated in three occupational groups: 1. Clerical /Administrative (44%) 2. Professionals (35%) 3. Managers (16%). Over the last decade, there has been a decline in Clerical / Administrative Workers and growth in the proportion of Professionals. Occupations projected to generate growth over the next 5 years include Accountants (11, 400), Other Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers (3,300), Finance Managers (3,100) and Financial Investment Advisers and Managers (3,100). Source: DEEWR, Finance and Insurance Services Employment Outlook 2012 (

13. Hume Overview

14. Retail Trade Assistance by LGA 2006 vs. 2011 Census Data 14 | Towong 215 (2006) Wodonga 2,082 (2006) Alpine 565 (2006) Mansfield 407 (2006) Hume Region Boundary Sub-region Boundary Local Government Area (LGA) Boundary Indigo 725 (2006) Murrindindi 568 (2006) Mitchell 1,569 (2006) Strathbogie 327 (2006) G Shepparton Moira 1,283 (2006) Wangaratta 1,554 (2006) Benalla 777(2006) 3,375 (2006) 671 (2011) 1,251 (2011) 727 (2011) 2,096 (2011) 202 (2011) 1,447 (2011) 444 (2011) 597 (2011) 3,380 (2011) 1,576 (2011) 352 (2011) 534 (2011) Total Industry 13,447 (2006) 13,277 (2011) Source: ABS Census Data 2006 and ABS Census Data 2011 1.5%

15. Employment growth Projection in Hume According to Monash projections employment is expected to decline over the period to 2016. 15 | Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

16. Retail Trade Occupation Employment Levels The top employing occupations employment levels in the region are as follows: 16 | ANZSCOOccupationEmployment (2011-12) 142Retail Managers 3.056 631Checkout Operators etc 2.330 891Freight Handlers etc 0.851 351Food Trades Workers 0.602 321Automotive Electricians etc 0.469 741Store persons 0.470 551Acc Clerks & Bookkeepers 0.418 811Cleaners & Laundry Wrkrs 0.242 899Misc Labourers 0.242 591Logistics Clerks 0.249 Health & Community Services (Top 10 occupations by employment level Hume 000’) Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Note: Red text indicates occupation included as part of this labour market analysis Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

17. Retail Trade Occupation growth Monash projections show declining employment in all Retail Trade occupations. 17 | Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011 (Hume Employment: by ANZSCO occupation, '000 persons, 2010-1 to 2017-8)

18. VET Course Level and Diversity 18 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Growth in VET course enrolments is attributable to increased enrolments in the Certificate II, III and IV level qualifications. The diversity of students enrolled in VET courses has increased in all categories. There has been a significant increase in the proportion of CALD and Disabled students. Indigenous students have increased to a lesser extent.

19. Retail Trade Age profile of Enrolments The Hume Retail and Trade industry has experienced the greatest increase in VET course enrolments in those aged 15-19 and 20-24. 19 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

20. Retail Trade VET Education Data Sales Assistant (General) Retail Supervisor Pharmacy Sales Assistant

21. Sales Assistant (General)

22. VET Enrolments Age Profile 22 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Sales Assistants in Hume have experienced an increase in VET course enrolments across all age groups. The strongest growth has experienced in those aged 15-19.

23. VET Course and Diversity 23 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Growth in VET course enrolments is attributable to increased enrolments in the Certificate II and III level qualifications in Retail Operations. The Certificate III level course has experienced significant growth. The diversity of Sales Assistants enrolled in VET courses has increased. The strongest growth in diversity has been the proportion of CALD students.

24. Retail Supervisor

25. VET Enrolments Age Profile 25 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Retail Supervisors in Hume have experienced a minor increase in VET course enrolments (from 114 in 2008 – 120 in 2011. The strongest growth has been experienced in those aged 30-34. There has been a significant decline in those aged 20-24.

26. VET Course and Diversity 26 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Growth in VET course enrolments is attributable to increased enrolments in the Certificate IV level qualification (Retail Management). The diversity of enrolments has increased in the proportion of CALD and Disabled students. The proportion of indigenous students has declined.

27. Pharmacy Sales Assistant

28. VET Enrolments Age Profile 28 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Pharmacy Sales Assistants in Hume have experienced a significant increase in VET course enrolments (from 46 in 2008 – 118 in 2011. The strongest growth has been in those aged 15-19 and 20-24.

29. VET Course and Diversity 29 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Growth in VET course enrolments is attributable to increased enrolments in the Certificate III level qualification (Retail Management). The diversity of enrolments has increased in the proportion of CALD and Disabled students. The proportion of indigenous students has declined.

30. Future direction

31. What this means? 31 | Retail Trade employs approximately 1,211,700 persons, full time and part time, which is around 10.6 per cent of the total Australian workforce. The industry is divided into fourteen segments. Over the past five years, national employment in the industry has increased at a rate of 0.3 % per annum. Projected employment growth is expected to vary across segments. Growth is predicted to be strongest in ‘Non-Store Retail’ (5.9%). Segments predicted to decline include: ‘Recreational Goods’ (-2.4%), ‘Department Stores’ (-2%) and ‘Retail Commission-Based Buying, Selling’ (-1.4%). According to Monash employment projections employment in Retail in the Hume Region is expected to decline to 2016. Hume enrolments in VET courses has increased in the Certificate II, III and IV level qualifications. Growth has been observed in all major employing occupations (Sales Assistants, Retail Supervisor, Pharmacy Sales Assistant). The diversity of students enrolled in VET courses has also increased in all categories with a significant increase in the proportion of CALD and Disabled students.

32. Data Quality and Limitations The data challenges included: 1. Different definitions of industries / occupations between ABS, Industry Skills Councils and Monash. 2. Different Time periods used by different sources 3. Old Data - ABS Census is now 6 years old. 2011 ABS Census data has been used where available. 4. Lack of HUME region industry data particularly for industries where employers are predominantly private sector (e.g. Retail, manufacturing and Transport and Logistics) 5. Lack of regional Skills Shortage Data – DEEWR lists are at the State level 6. Changes in name and level of VET qualifications (training packages) 7. Poor sourcing of data – The data source and date were unclear for some data sources. Limitation of Liability This Labour Market Snapshot has been compiled using data which, to the best of Workforce Planning Australia’s knowledge, was current and correct at the time of printing. WPA gives no warranty as to the accuracy of the information contained herein nor its applicability to any specific circumstances. It is intended as a guide only and Workforce Planning Australia will not be liable to any person as a result of any actual or perceived inaccuracy contained in this report.