1. UCSB Economic Forecast Project The City of Oxnard Economic Outlook Bill Watkins September 15, 2004

2. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Outline Oxnard Baby Boomers Building Oxnard Forecast

3. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard How is it doing? Compared to …

4. UCSB Economic Forecast Project How is Oxnard doing?

5. UCSB Economic Forecast Project So Many Influences International Politics United States Los Angeles Other Ventura County communities Santa Barbara County

6. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Population Comparison Index (1991 = 100) 100.0 110.7 126.6 110.3 117.2 1991199319951997199920012003 Oxnard Ventura County

7. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Unemployment Rate Ventura County 8.9%9.0% 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 5.6% 4.8% 4.5% 4.6% 5.4% 5.3% 199219941996199820002002 Los Angeles County’s Is 6.8%

8. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Employment (jobs) Oxnard Metro Area 38,276 45,530 50,572 49,003 54,204 55,071 57,053 1992199419961998200020022004

9. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Employment Comparison Index (1991 = 100) 100.0 136.2 124.6 146.0 145.2 150.7 123.6 1991199319951997199920012003 Oxnard Metro Area Ventura County

10. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 1-Year Employment Growth by Industry Oxnard Metro Area - 2003 -1000100200300400500 Agriculture Mining Construction Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Trans., Comm. & Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services jobs

11. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Employment Distribution (jobs) Oxnard Metro Area - 2003 10,859 187 1,823 3,034 2,959 2,840 2,653 10,192 2,961 17,280 Agriculture Mining Construction Durable Manufacturing Non-Durable Manufacturing Trans., Comm., & Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Ins.& Real Estate Other Services Other Services include: Repair-Maintenance Laundry Religion Civic Professional …….

12. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Salary Comparison ($ per worker) Oxnard Metro Area - 2003 21,270 34,291 38,703 58,171 33,415 39,174 39,552 22,017 50,026 37,029 Agriculture Mining Construction Durable Manufacturing Non-Durable Manufacturing Trans., Comm., & Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Ins.& Real Estate Other Services

13. UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ Let’s talk about agriculture for a minute.” Bill Says:

14. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Retail Sales 1-year Growth Distribution City of Oxnard - 2003 -5051015202530 Apparel Stores Building Materials Automobiles Eating and Drinking Food Stores Service Stations General Merchandise Household Products Other Retail percent

15. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Hotel / Motel Room Sales Oxnard City $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 1990:11992:11994:11996:11998:12000:12002:12004:1 millions

16. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard and other Ventura County cities

17. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Hispanic Proportion of Population Cities in Ventura County 17.0% 69.4% 31.0% 17.7% 70.2% 44.2% 75.7% 18.4% 14.7% 27.0% Camarillo Fillmore Moorpark Ojai Oxnard Port Hueneme Santa Paula Simi Valley Thousand Oaks Ventura City

18. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Population Growth Cities in Ventura County 1.9% 1.6% -0.7% 4.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.4% 0.4% 2.1% 1.5% Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City

19. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Median Age Cities in Ventura County 39.4 30.2 31.4 42.5 29.4 30.6 30.2 35.3 38.1 37.2 CamarilloFillmoreMoorparkOjaiOxnardPort Hueneme Santa Paula Simi ValleyThousand Oaks Ventura City

20. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Nominal Median Home Prices Cities in Ventura County $407,545 $299,083 $268,231 $411,854 $442,500 $345,833 $369,921 $297,292 $477,186 $388,088 Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City

21. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Median Household Income Cities in Ventura County $69,394 $52,539 $84,653 $49,089 $52,744 $44,729 $45,976 $79,155 $84,053 $58,114 CamarilloFillmoreMoorparkOjaiOxnardPort Hueneme Santa Paula Simi ValleyThousand Oaks Ventura City

22. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Owner-Occupied Housing Cities in Ventura County 73.2% 63.1% 81.7% 58.3% 57.1% 48.0% 57.0% 77.0% 75.0% 58.3% CamarilloFillmoreMoorparkOjaiOxnardPort Hueneme Santa Paula Simi ValleyThousand Oaks Ventura City

23. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real Gross Regional Product Metro Regions in Ventura County $4,764.2 $6,605.8 $4,605.9 $788.1 $6,261.4 $10,656.4 Cama- rillo OxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Ventura City Thousand Oaks millions

24. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real GRP per Worker Metro Regions in Ventura County PaulaCity $134,605 $118,108 $127,830 $101,042 $113,850 $172,418 CamarilloOxnardSimiSantaVenturaThousand Oaks

25. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real Retail Sales Cities in Ventura County $511 $64 $48 $87 $63 $1,430 $842 $104 $1,708 $1,259 Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City millions

26. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real Retail Sales Per Capita Cities in Ventura County $8.4 $4.4 $2.2 $2.5 $7.9 $7.2 $3.6 $13.8 $12.1 Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City thousands

27. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard is Changing Agriculture Military Industry Commuters Demographics

28. UCSB Economic Forecast Project An Introduction to Baby Boomers

29. UCSB Economic Forecast Project “What a drag it is getting old.” Mick Says:

30. UCSB Economic Forecast Project “For the rest of history, there are unlikely ever again to be more toddlers than grey heads.” The Economist Says:

31. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Baby Boomers are starting to retire are going to inherit $3 to $5 trillion like coastal California are used to getting what they want will get what they want

32. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Interesting Facts Longer life does not imply more years of ill health. The onset of old age is related to years remaining, not age. Early gains in life expectancy were a result of childhood issues. Recent gains have impacted the years after retirement. In 2003, over half of all Harley-Davidson buyers were over 45.

33. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Just the Numbers, Ma’am In 1963 there were 11 centenarians. In 2003 there were 2050 centenarians. By 2050 expect over a million centenarians. The first person to live to 150 years of age is probably already born.

34. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Things Baby Boomers Buy Sports cars and Harleys Travel and cruises Exercise machines and electronic stuff Beauty aids and cosmetic surgery Viagra and hormone-replacement pills Hip and knee replacements

35. UCSB Economic Forecast Project “Better to burn out than to fade away.” Neil Young Says:

36. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Building Oxnard

37. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Nominal Median Home Price City of Oxnard $167,000 $148,000 $139,300 $149,000 $165,800 $198,700 $233,900 $277,100 $345,800 $412,600 1992199419961998200020022004

38. UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ Look for Oxnard real estate prices to continue their upward trend.” Bill Says:

39. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Housing Affordability Ventura County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

40. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Housing Density City of Oxnard 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 people per household

41. UCSB Economic Forecast Project 92949698000204 387 367 253 227 290 425 348 448 1145 1032 473 785 1083 503 1146 SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES MULTIPLE-FAMILY HOMES Total New Residential Building Permits City of Oxnard

42. UCSB Economic Forecast Project New Non-Res Bldg. Permit Value by Type City of Oxnard 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 $ millions Industrial Retail Office

43. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Building Permit Value & Growth City of Oxnard 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 line: $ millions

44. UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ What are we going to do about farm-worker housing? ” Bill Says:

45. UCSB Economic Forecast Project The Forecast –Outside Influences –Macro Trends –Short Term

46. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Outside Influences

47. UCSB Economic Forecast Project The United States Economy

48. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Bill Says: “ Unless something goes seriously wrong, the national economy looks pretty good.”

49. UCSB Economic Forecast Project How Bad is the California Economy? Maybe not as bad as you think.

50. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Job Growth Rates Percent Change From Prior Year

51. UCSB Economic Forecast Project California Issues Budget Energy Housing Costs Workers Compensation Insurance Health Insurance Tort Law High costs Onerous Regulation

52. UCSB Economic Forecast Project What about the new Governor?

53. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Clint Eastwood Says: “A man has got to know his limitations.”

54. UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ California is unlikely to see per-capita economic growth rates comparable to that of the United States.” Bill Says:

55. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Trends

56. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Remember the Baby Boomers

57. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Display (Retail) Advertising Tri-Counties 100.0 122.1 131.0 128.1 115.0 102.4 75.1 93.1 101.4 109.3 110.1 102.7 91.8 68.2 93.8 101.9 116.3 97.5 2002:012002:042002:072002:102003:012003:042003:072003:102004:012004:042004:07 Jan. 2002 = 100

58. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Lines of Help Wanted Ads Tri-Counties 100.0 113.8 129.1 129.7 95.7 77.8 100.1 107.7 112.4 111.2 88.5 67.9 102.2 113.2 122.6 110.3 2002:012002:042002:072002:102003:012003:042003:072003:102004:012004:042004:07 Jan. 2002 = 100

59. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Trends Los Angeles County Santa Barbara County Other Ventura County communities

60. UCSB Economic Forecast Project The Short Run

61. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Ventura County Output Share of Tri-Counties 54.8% 55.9% 55.4% 56.5% 59.0% 60.0% 61.2% 61.4% 61.7% 19921994199619982000200220042006

62. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Gross Regional Product Growth Oxnard Metro Area 6.2% 2.6% 11.8% 6.7% -0.9% 13.2% 10.2% 13.2% 6.2% 8.1% 6.6% 3.8% 4.0% 6.0% 19921994199619982000200220042006

63. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real GRP per Worker Growth Oxnard Metro Area 3.0% -1.6% -2.0% -1.9% -3.0% 23.7% 4.1% 7.8% 0.8% 8.7% 4.3% 2.2% 1.8% 3.5% 19921994199619982000200220042006

64. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard Metro Area Output Share of Ventura County 14.5% 16.3% 16.6% 17.0% 15.9% 16.7% 16.6% 16.9% 19921994199619982000200220042006

65. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Employment (jobs) Oxnard Metro Area 38,276 45,530 50,572 49,003 54,204 55,071 57,053 59,650 19921994199619982000200220042006

66. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Employment Growth Oxnard Metro Area 3.1% 4.2% 14.1% 8.7% 2.1% -8.5% 5.9% 5.0% 5.3% -0.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 19921994199619982000200220042006

67. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Nominal Average Salary Oxnard Metro Area $20,855 $21,487 $20,847 $27,269 $29,422 $33,033 $34,393 $36,791 19921994199619982000200220042006

68. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Average Salary Growth Oxnard Metro Area -0.8% -1.7% 0.8% -2.1% -4.1% 19.5% 6.1% 4.0% -1.9% 7.3% -1.5% -0.7% 0.1% -0.3% 2.3% 19921994199619982000200220042006

69. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Nominal Median Home Price City of Oxnard $167,000 $148,000 $139,300 $149,000 $165,800 $198,700 $233,900 $277,100 $345,800 $412,600 $464,000 $506,900 19921994199619982000200220042006

70. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Median Home Price Growth City of Oxnard -5.7% -6.5% -8.8% -5.7% -3.3% 0.2% 3.5% 8.7% 16.0% 13.9% 15.3% 21.6% 16.8% 9.9% 6.6% 19921994199619982000200220042006

71. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Retail Sales per Capita Growth City of Oxnard -5.2% -4.2% 12.0% 1.8% 1.5% 2.4% 8.4% -7.3% 2.8% 2.7% 0.4% 2.3% 2.5% 19921994199619982000200220042006

72. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Bill Says: “ Oxnard is still creating itself. It will be a very different place in 10 years.”

73. UCSB Economic Forecast Project Thank you. Visit us at www.ucsb-efp.com