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Published bySkylar Goodyear Modified over 9 years ago
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Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) Covering Analyst: Joshua Jordan jjordan3@uoregon.edu
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DPS History ›Dr. Pepper brand since 1885 ›Series of Acquisitions ›Most recent: DPSU, DPSUBG ›Incorporated October 24, 2007
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Business Overview ›Brand Owner ›Manufacturer ›Distributor ›United States (89%) ›Canada (4%) ›Latin America (7%) Dr. Pepper, 7-Up, A&W, Sunkist, Canada Dry, Snapple, Hawaiian Punch, Mott’s
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Dr. Pepper Snapple’s Strategy ›Expand distribution channels ›Build and enhance existing brands ›Take advantage of high-margin channels ›Become more efficient through RCI
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LRB Industry ›Highly Competitive ›Centralized ›15.2 Billion Cases
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›Dominated by Coca- Cola, PepsiCo, and Dr. Pepper Snapple ›9.3 Billion Cases CSD Industry
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Risks and Drawbacks ›Consumer Health Preferences ›Commodity Prices ›Health Regulations ›Competition ›Retail Contracts
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Positives ›Research and development is creating healthier beverages ›Penetrating distribution channels ›More efficient operations through RCI
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Revenue ›Beverage Concentrates –Highest Margins ›Packaged Beverages –Lowest Margins ›Latin America Beverages
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Customers ›Retailers –Wal-Mart (10% of total sales) –The Kroger Co. –Safeway ›Food Service –Mcdonald’s –Yum! –Burger King –Sonic –Wendy’s ›Convenience Stores –7-Eleven
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DCF Expectations ›Increasing COGS as a percent of revenue ›SG&A decreasing slightly as a percent of revenue ›Tax rate increasing to 37% ›Gradual rates as opposed to straight-line rates ›Increasing capital expenditures
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DCF Valuation ›Possible reasons for price differential –Beta –Cost of Debt
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Comparables Screening ›Industry ›Licensing ›Size ›Beta ›Growth ›Margins
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Comparables ›Coca-Cola (KO) – 30% –Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Barq’s ›PepsiCo (PEP) – 30% –Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Sierra Mist, Mug ›Monster (MNST) – 20% –Monster, Hansen’s ›Cott (Cot) – 10% –Cott, RC Cola ›National Beverage (FIZZ) – 10% –Shasta
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Forward Comparables Valuation
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Final Valuation
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Profit Returns ›Dividends ›Stock Repurchases
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Comparable Profit Returns
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Recommendation: Hold for Tall Firs and Svigals ›Outperforming strong competitors in market share ›Increasing profit returns to shareholders through dividends ›Innovative product line and cost-cutting techniques ›Note: Future update is important to valuate success of ten- calorie soda lines
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