1. EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON COFFEE PRODUCTION Dr. J. K. Kimemia Ugandan Coffee Traders Federation Breakfast Fellowship, 15 June 2010 Kampala Uganda

2. Introduction Africa is the home of both Arabica and Robusta coffee Africa is the home of both Arabica and Robusta coffee The coffees play a major economic role to the member countries The coffees play a major economic role to the member countries Any threat to the coffee production would have serious implications Any threat to the coffee production would have serious implications

3. Climatic Requirements Altitude1400 – 2200 m asl Altitude1400 – 2200 m asl TemperaturesArabica 18 – 20ºC TemperaturesArabica 18 – 20ºC Robusta 22 – 26ºC >25ºCPhotosynthesis is reduced >25ºCPhotosynthesis is reduced >30ºCLeaves damaged >30ºCLeaves damaged Rainfall>1000 mm with a 2 month dry spell

4. Global warming Attributed to human factor mainly increase in Green House Gases ( carbon dioxide and methane) Attributed to human factor mainly increase in Green House Gases ( carbon dioxide and methane) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates a temp. rise of 1.4 – 5.8 ºC 1990 – 2100 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates a temp. rise of 1.4 – 5.8 ºC 1990 – 2100 An average temp rise of 0.2 ºC per decade is projected An average temp rise of 0.2 ºC per decade is projected

6. Attitude Scenarios Assume there is no global warming Assume there is no global warming Do nothing Do nothing Perish when and if it happens Perish when and if it happens Believe there is global warming Believe there is global warming Do nothing – act of God Do nothing – act of God Prepare strategies to overcome and and or adopt to the change Prepare strategies to overcome and and or adopt to the change

7. Impact on Agriculture Shifting of optimal growing zones Shifting of optimal growing zones Changes in rainfall (amount and variability) Changes in rainfall (amount and variability) Change in crop diseases and pests Change in crop diseases and pests Change in crop yields and quality Change in crop yields and quality Loss of agricultural land due to either rising sea levels and/or desertification Loss of agricultural land due to either rising sea levels and/or desertification

8. Impact on coffee For example For example A rise in 2 ºC in Uganda would cut massively the area under coffee A rise in 2 ºC in Uganda would cut massively the area under coffee Coffee may only remain at around Mt Elgon Coffee may only remain at around Mt Elgon Which variety Arabica or Robusta? Which variety Arabica or Robusta?

10. Impact on coffee (contd) Mexico: A rise in temp could reduce coffee production by 34% in Veracruz Mexico: A rise in temp could reduce coffee production by 34% in Veracruz Brazil: A rise of 5.8 ºC could reduce the suitable areas for coffee production Brazil: A rise of 5.8 ºC could reduce the suitable areas for coffee production

11. Effect on coffee Flowering in coffee requires a period of moisture stress Flowering in coffee requires a period of moisture stress Sporadic rains reduces stress duration Sporadic rains reduces stress duration Reduced and sporadic Reduced and sporadic flowering flowering

12. Effect on coffee Results in random flowering Results in random flowering Different berry growth stages at the same time Different berry growth stages at the same time Difficulties in disease and pest management, harvesting and processing Difficulties in disease and pest management, harvesting and processing Compromise quality Compromise quality

13. Effect on coffee Disease like Leaf Rust may become more prevalent Disease like Leaf Rust may become more prevalent

14. Effect on coffee 1 ºC increase in temp. would increase the population of coffee berry borer by 8.8% 1 ºC increase in temp. would increase the population of coffee berry borer by 8.8% Increase the infestation of nematodes and leaf miner Increase the infestation of nematodes and leaf miner

15. Effect on coffee (contd) Poor yields and quality Poor yields and quality

16. Effect on coffee High temp fasten coffee ripening and reduces quality High temp fasten coffee ripening and reduces quality Fermentation Fermentation This is natural or artificial degradation of the mucilaginous coat Fermentation has a great impact on the cup quality Takes between 18 – 72 hours depending on prevailing temperatures

17. Effect on coffee

18. What Requires to be Done Carry out more agronomic research? Carry out more agronomic research? And in the meantime? And in the meantime? Develop new heat/drought tolerant crops? Develop new heat/drought tolerant crops? Long term and expensive Long term and expensive

19. What Requires to be Done Cultivate coffee at higher altitudes Cultivate coffee at higher altitudes No land No land Environmental and forest degradation Environmental and forest degradation Repackage the available technical information and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies? Repackage the available technical information and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies?

20. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Use of shade in coffee Use of shade in coffee Reduces the air temperatures Reduces the air temperatures Evens out flowering Evens out flowering Conserves surface moisture Conserves surface moisture

21. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Use of shade in coffee Use of shade in coffee Litter fall contributes to soil organic matter and nutrients – reduce fertilizer application Litter fall contributes to soil organic matter and nutrients – reduce fertilizer application

22. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Use of shade using fruit trees e.g. Mangoes Use of shade using fruit trees e.g. Mangoes Risk management Risk management Cash Cash Food security Food security Nutritional requirements Nutritional requirements

23. Adaptation andMitigating strategies

26. Possible Shade trees Cordia spp Cordia spp Albizzia spp Albizzia spp Grevellea spp Grevellea spp Markhemia lutea Markhemia lutea Macadamia spp Macadamia spp Avocadoes Avocadoes Mangoes Mangoes

27. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Mulching applied Mulching applied

28. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Mulching applied Mulching applied

29. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Mulching applied Mulching applied

30. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Mulching applied Mulching applied

31. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Grass Strips Grass Strips

32. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Water conserving trees e.g. giant bamboo Water conserving trees e.g. giant bamboo

33. Adaptation and Mitigating strategies Forking Forking Subsoiling Subsoiling Furrows Furrows Half moon basins Half moon basins etc etc

34. Mitigation strategies Breeding for high temperature tolerance – can it be done? Breeding for high temperature tolerance – can it be done? Biotechnology? Biotechnology? Food safety considerations? Food safety considerations? Costs? Costs? Consumer perception? Consumer perception?

35. Way Forward The problem is both economic and political – a regional/continental approach needed The problem is both economic and political – a regional/continental approach needed A think tank to address this issue needs to be set up A think tank to address this issue needs to be set up Assistance by international research organisations and development partners needed Assistance by international research organisations and development partners needed

36. Way Forward Participation by all: success dependent on continued coffee production Participation by all: success dependent on continued coffee production Role of the trade Role of the trade Support research Support research Support dissemination Support dissemination Support farmers Support farmers DEVELOP A WIN – WIN SITUATION

37. $

38. Asante sana