1. Peace: the Future

2. What is Peace?

4. The world has never been so peaceful

7. Early human societies: ~25% 20 th century: <4% recent decades: <2% What percentage of people lose their lives due to war?

8. History’s trend has been a smaller and smaller percentage of the population engaged in war. And a smaller percentage of deaths for both soldiers and civilians. This will continue

9. 4 types of conflict *Jonathan Schell

11. Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000

12. The early 20 th century was humanity’s experiment in gazing as closely as possible to the brink of destruction, and then pulling back.

14. People’s War 2

15. Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000 People’s War American Revolution

16. Terrorism 3

17. Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000 People’s War American Revolution Terrorism

18. Terrorism, by definition, is never as bad as it seems.

19. It is a tactic used by non-state actors too weak to wage Total War or People’s War

20. Thus, its rise can be seen as a (comparatively) positive trend: it signals a decline in the more violent types of conflict.

21. Nonviolence 4

22. =

23. Satyāgraha ( “ Truth-force ” )

24. Violence sometimes achieves short- term objectives, but always leaves negative long-term consequences. Short-termLong-term Violence Sometimes works Never works Nonviolence Sometimes works Always works

25. Carnation revolution – Portugal People Power revolution – Philippines Velvet revolution – Czech Bulldozer revolution – Serbia Rose revolution – Georgia Orange revolution – Ukraine Purple revolution – Iraq Green revolution – Iran Tulip revolution – Kyrgyzstan Cedar revolution – Lebanon

26. Total War WWI WWII 18001850190019502000 People’s War American Revolution Terrorism Nonviolence

27. So, why the shift? Total WarPeople’s WarTerrorismNonviolence

28. End of colonialism

29. End of the Cold War

30. Maps & borders codified

31. State failure hurts everyone

32. Global economic ties

33. Biggest reason:

34. The increase in the value of each human life. The realization that all are equal.

35. What is Peace? Again,

37. 2. Basic needs met. Percentage of world’s population living in extreme poverty

39. 4. Health Infant mortality rate

40. 5. Equality

41. 6. Freedom for all / equality of opportunity / democracy / choice

42. 7. Education / creative fulfillment for all World literacy rate today: 83% 1970: 63% About 175,000 new blogs are created each day

43. 8. Universal brotherhood

44. 9. Utopia. Everything is perfect!

45. This is impossible

46. Peace is an ever- receding goal

47. This is a good thing. It means our standards keep improving! "People who live in a Golden Age usually go around complaining how yellow everything looks." - poet Randall Jarrell

48. We are destined for peace. But it’s not a single endpoint. By the standards of history, many parts of the world are already at peace. So, the future of peace?

49. Jesse Richards www. secretpeace.com