1. Climate Change Expert Group www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg.htm (Intended) nationally determined contributions Olai Uludong and Pete Betts

2. 2 Climate Change Expert Group “Strategic review” of mitigation contributions

3. 3 Climate Change Expert Group General Strategic review shaped by understanding of NDCs, target setting process Would encompass both individual and aggregate contributions – not clear where emphasis should be Expectations and peer pressure can be drivers for ambition Consider how the process could usefully impact national policies… …and how it might impact long-term private investment decisions  Would require better data  Distinct from/not a substitute for legal form

4. 4 Climate Change Expert Group Areas of convergence Strategic review/ambition assessment could be important part of political signal in Paris, given mitigation gap Strategic review takes place within the context of a dynamic cycle of contributions The ultimate aim of the process is to enhance ambition Nationally-determined contributions can be compatible with a multilateral process Need to consider existing and past review processes, and how to build on these Outcome of strategic review process unlikely to be prescriptive

5. 5 Climate Change Expert Group Areas of divergence Scope of the review: mitigation only? Timing of the review: midway through implementation (impacting existing contributions), end of implementation period (impacting future contributions) o Whether ex ante or ex post review process most effective Basis of the review: NDCs, or some other type of contribution/commitment in the future Process: focus on better identifying gaps and actions (clarification)? have recommendations delivered by Convention body? Striking right balance between forward- and backward- looking elements

6. 6 Climate Change Expert Group Use of transferred mitigation in (I)NDCs

7. 7 Climate Change Expert Group General Markets play an important role, including in engaging the private sector Clear signal needed for markets to be up-and-running for 2020; this requires actions in the very short term Some contribution types can make it difficult to robustly account for international transfers INDCs can provide a strong political signal on markets, e.g. Switzerland No provision for markets could be a concern: limits confidence regarding double counting and environmental integrity Important to have a provision or placeholder in agreement enabling use of markets, with details to be determined later