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Photo Credit: Dianne Arrigoni C OLLABORATION : S EA - LEVEL M ARIN A DAPTATION R ESPONSE T EAM (C-SMART) Stakeholder Advisory Committee (SAC) Meeting #1.

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Presentation on theme: "Photo Credit: Dianne Arrigoni C OLLABORATION : S EA - LEVEL M ARIN A DAPTATION R ESPONSE T EAM (C-SMART) Stakeholder Advisory Committee (SAC) Meeting #1."— Presentation transcript:

1 Photo Credit: Dianne Arrigoni C OLLABORATION : S EA - LEVEL M ARIN A DAPTATION R ESPONSE T EAM (C-SMART) Stakeholder Advisory Committee (SAC) Meeting #1 July 10, 2014 Community Development Agency 3501 Civic Center Drive, Suite 308 San Rafael, CA 94903 415 473 6269 T / 415 473 7880 F marinslr.org

2 Time Period North of Cape Mendocino 3 South of Cape Mendocino 2000 - 2030 -4 to 23 cm (-1.6 to 9.1 in) 4 to 30 cm (1.56 to 11.8 in) 2000 – 2050 -3 to 48 cm (-1.2 to 18.9 in) 12 to 61 cm (4.7 to 24 in) 2000 – 2100 10 to 143 cm (3.9 to 56.3 in) 42 to 167 cm (16.5 to 65.7 in) Sea-Level Rise Projections using 2000 as the Baseline National Academy of Sciences: Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future, 2012 Annual Mean Sea Level, San Francisco Tide Gauge www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/10.php Our Coast, Our Future website data.prbo.org/apps/ocof/

3 Identifying Future Risk with CoSMoS 1. Global forcing using the latest climate models 3. Scaled down to local hazards projections 2. Drives global and regional wave models

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5 No stormAnnual storm20-year storm 100-year storm 0cm SLR * 2010 25cm SLR*2030 50cm SLR*2030 75cm SLR 100cm SLR*2070 125cm SLR 150cm SLR* 2100 175cm SLR 200cm SLR* 500cm SLR 40 different SLR scenarios * Marin County selected SLR scenarios

6 June 2014 – April 2015 March 2015 – January 2016 March 2015 – February 2016 Sensitivit y Exposure Local SLR Projection s Asset Mapping Potential Impact Adaptive Capacity Vulnerabilit y Adaptatio n Strategies Action Plan C-SMART Process

7 A SSET M APPING & I NVENTORYING Mapping people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets Agricultural land Protected areas Public beaches and parks Dunes River & streams Wetland areas Habitat areas Oyster beds Sandspits Shorebirds Roads and transportation Trails Buildings Residential development Commercial buildings School Elderly/mobility limited facilities Hotels/Motels Harbors and marinas Fishing, aquaculture facilities Utilities & services Septic leach fields Water Supply wells Archeological/ Paleontological sites Historic sites

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10 A DAPTIVE C APACITY The ability or potential of a system or asset to respond successfully to climate variability and change (IPCC, 2007).

11 P OTENTIAL I MPACT The types of effects on human and natural systems could experience. Storm Scenario Frequency NoneAnnual20 Year100 Year Year 2010 XXXX 2030 XXXX 2050 XXXX 2100 XXXX

12 5)Living Shorelines The Bay Institute Horizontal Levees Oyster Beds

13 Photo Credit: Dianne Arrigoni October 13, 2014 Community Development Agency 3501 Civic Center Drive, Suite 308 San Rafael, CA 94903 415 473 6269 T / 415 473 7880 F marinslr.org WWW.MARINSLR.ORG

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