1. 1 North Central River Forecast Center: An Overview of Operations and Mission Wisconsin River Post-Flood Meeting November 16, 2010

2. Outline NCRFC Mission and Products Forecast process –Meteorological driving data –Hydrologic model Daily Analysis Calibration September 2010 Forecasts NWS Products 2

3. 3 NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services This initiative will develop and deliver valued water resources forecasts to save lives and properties, manage water resources, and enhance America’s economy. Some of the benefits will apply to: Irrigation Power Generation River Commerce Protection of threatened and endangered species Enhanced aquatic habitats Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management

4. 4 Office and Staff 13 NWS River Forecast Centers One of 13 River Forecast Centers in the USA Staff of 19 forecasters and administrative personnel Operates 365 days a year, 18-24 hours a day

5. 5 Area of Responsibility 1117 sub-watersheds (155 in Wisconsin) 33 forecast groups 3 Major Basins Mississippi River Great Lakes Hudson Bay

6. 6 Forecast Services Water Quality Support

7. 7 Flash Flood Guidance

8. 8 Forecast Hydrograph

9. 9 Long Range Probabilistic Products

10. Outline NCRFC Mission and Products Forecast process –Meteorological data –Hydrologic model Daily Analysis Calibration Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project 10

11. Meteorological Driving Data 11 Observed PeriodForecast Period Precipitation Surface observations & Radar estimates Gridded, up to 5 days Air TemperatureSurface observationsGridded, up to 7 days

12. Precipitation Surface observations 12 Hourly to daily accumulationsHourly to daily accumulations Manual and automated observersManual and automated observers Quality controlledQuality controlled Point precipitationMean areal precipitation

13. Precipitation Radar Estimates 13 Gridded precipitationMean areal precipitation 27 USA radars & 8 Canadian radars27 USA radars & 8 Canadian radars Hourly gridsHourly grids Bias corrected based on surface observationsBias corrected based on surface observations Quality controlledQuality controlled

14. Precipitation Forecast 14 GriddedGridded 6-hour accumulation6-hour accumulation 5 days available5 days available

15. Air Temperature Observed & Forecast 15 Daily max/minDaily max/min 7 days available7 days available Soon will be griddedSoon will be gridded

16. Outline NCRFC Mission and Products Forecast process –Meteorological data –Hydrologic model Daily Analysis Calibration Ideas for Runoff Risk Mapping Project 16

17. 17 Hydrologic Model NWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast SystemNWSRFS – National Weather Service River Forecast System Several models are run for each sub-watershedSeveral models are run for each sub-watershed –Snow accumulation & melt –Soil moisture & runoff –River routing –Reservoirs

18. Model Schematics 18 Snow Model Soil Moisture/Runoff Model

19. 19 Model Analysis

20. 20 Model Analysis Forecaster can modifyForecaster can modify –Precipitation type –Amount and areal extent of snow cover –Melt rate

21. 21 Model Analysis Forecaster can modifyForecaster can modify –Amount of water in any of the conceptual storages –Frost index –Amount of rain/melt –Amount of runoff

22. Model Analysis Models are analyzed and adjusted on a daily basis. Goal: to accurately simulate streamflow while maintaining reasonable model states. Only make adjustments when necessary and justified. 22

23. Model Calibration 23 Calibration period 1948- 2004Calibration period 1948- 2004 Snow, soil moisture, routing, and reservoir models all require calibrationSnow, soil moisture, routing, and reservoir models all require calibration “Subjective” function is how well we simulate the hydrograph at the outlet.“Subjective” function is how well we simulate the hydrograph at the outlet. Could be used to calibrate thresholds for this project.Could be used to calibrate thresholds for this project.

24. 24 How did we do last September?

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30. How will I know when high water is coming? 30 http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

31. Long Range Outlooks 31

32. Long Range Outlooks (cont) 32

33. Snow Information 33 http://www.nohrsc.nws.gov/

34. 1-5 Day NWS Precipitation Forecasts… 34 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml

35. River Forecasts 35 http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

36. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ncrfc/content/water/fop.php 36

37. Specialized Products… QPF Ensembles 37

38. Specialized Products… Flow Forecasts : This product contains preliminary data that may be subject to revision. : Refer to your local WFO for the latest official river forecast. : : North Central River Forecast Center, Chanhassen, MN : : Mon Nov 15 15:41:00 2010 : : Wolf R New London Adj Flood Stage ft.E NEWW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs).E1 2.025/ 2.015/ 2.000/ 2.010/.E NEWW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs).E1 2.029/ 2.061/ 2.116/ 2.196/ 2.275/ 2.338/ 2.397/ 2.452/.E1 2.494/ 2.529/ 2.558/ 2.580/ 2.597/ 2.611/ 2.622/ 2.629/.E1 2.633/ 2.628/ 2.610/ 2.584/ 2.555/ 2.524/ 2.493/ 2.461/.E1 2.430/ 2.400/ 2.371/ 2.343/ : : Little Wolf R Royalton Adj Flood Stage ft.E ROYW3 1114 Z DH18/DC1115/QRIP/DIH06 : 6-Hour Observed Flows (Kcfs).E1 0.485/ 0.485/ 0.572/ 0.606/.E ROYW3 1115 Z DH18/DC1115/QRICB/DIH06 : 6-Hour Forecast Flows (Kcfs).E1 0.640/ 0.666/ 0.684/ 0.692/ 0.693/ 0.686/ 0.672/ 0.653/.E1 0.630/ 0.603/ 0.573/ 0.541/ 0.512/ 0.483/ 0.456/ 0.432/.E1 0.413/ 0.398/ 0.386/ 0.376/ 0.367/ 0.360/ 0.354/ 0.348/.E1 0.343/ 0.338/ 0.334/ 0.330/ 38

39. Specialized Products… Objective Products 39

40. Specialized Products… Inundation Mapping 40

41. Questions? NWS/North Central River Forecast Center Brian.Connelly@noaa.gov 952-368-2540 Steve.Buan@noaa.gov 952-368-2545 41