1. Introduction to the socio-ecological model Dr Olivia Langmead Marine Biological Association

2. Understanding the current situation  The starting point is how the seabed is currently used.  The ecosystem service assessment has made the linkages between the components below (Tara’s work). Current activities Pressures Seabed habitats Fish / carbon Current Value(£)

3. Elaborating the management scenarios  The next step is to elaborate the management scenarios into activity and pressure layers.  The pressure layers will become the input for the socio-ecological model. Current activities Pressures Seabed habitats Fish / carbon Current Value(£) Management scenario #1 Pressures Management scenario #2 Pressures Stakeholder group

4. Activities to pressure layers  From all of the scenarios there are 9 main activities: Spoil disposal Channel dredging Aggregate extraction Marina construction Tidal demonstration development Windfarm array development Demersal towed gear fishing Agriculture (livestock management) Coastal development (this list will likely be reduced after the scoring exercise)

5. Activities to pressure layers ActivitiesBroad pressure group Spoil disposalsedimentation, habitat loss Channel dredgingsedimentation, habitat loss Aggregate extractionsedimentation, habitat loss Marina constructionhabitat loss (saltmarsh) Tidal demonstration developmentsedimentation, habitat loss, emf Windfarm array developmentsedimentation, habitat loss, emf Demersal towed gear fishingabrasion Agriculture (livestock management)nutrient enrichment (estuary) Coastal developmentnutrient enrichment (estuary)

6. Pressure layers: Aggregate extraction Habitat loss Abrasion The same grid size will be used for all pressure layers (probably 1km 2 ) and also the habitat maps.

7. Model input Scenario #1 – Tidal demonstration development Pressure layer 1 – habitat loss Pressure layer 2 – sedimentation Activity 1 – tidal device installation Activity 2 – demersal fisheries Pressure layer 3 – abrasion Habitat map

8. Pressure layers are input for the model  Each scenario will have a layer corresponding to each pressure that is changed within it. These will form the input to the model.  Each pressure will have 2-4 states (e.g. abrasion - high, medium, low, absent). Thus the input information will be simple and clear. Current activities Pressures Seabed habitats Fish / carbon Current Value Management scenario #1 Pressures Management scenario #2 Pressures Seabed habitats Fish / carbon Value Seabed habitats Fish / carbon Value Stakeholder groupSocio-ecological model Marginal change in value

9. Model development  Currently there are three models – one for each ecosystem service provided by the seabed that we are interested in:  Fish nursery function  Foodweb function (providing fish with food)  Waste remediation (including carbon burial) In time, there will just be one model that can handle all three aspects The main steps in model development are:  Developing the conceptual model  Populating the linkages  Testing the model  Running the scenarios ©Keith Hiscock

10. Fish nursery model Sedimentation Nutrient enrichment Habitat loss Abrasionemf Habitat type Altered Habitat type Nursery - bass Nursery - flatfish Nursery – skate & ray Nursery – lobster Nursery – cod Bass nursery quality Flatfish nursery quality Skate & ray nursery quality Lobster nursery quality Cod nursery quality Nursery habitat value

11. Foodweb model Sedimentation Nutrient enrichment Habitat loss Abrasionemf Habitat type Vulnerability emf Vulnerability nutrients Vulnerability sedimentation Vulnerability Habitat loss Vulnerability abrasion Combined vulnerability Habitat quality Lobster food web provision Flatfish food web provision Skate & ray food web provision Bass food web provision Cod food web provision

12. Waste remediation model Sedimentation Nutrient enrichment Habitat loss Abrasionemf Habitat type Vulnerability emf Vulnerability nutrients Vulnerability sedimentation Vulnerability Habitat loss Vulnerability abrasion Functional groups Community bioturbation potentiial Waste remediation capacity

13. With special thanks to all our partners and funders