1. The Value of an Additional Slot at Capacitated Airports

2. Sponsors Judith Teller Foundation Toronto, CA Marty Goldberg

3. The Team Hebrew University School of Business Administration – Prof. Nicole Adler – Dr. Ekaterina Yazhemsky – Oren Petraru – Hadar Israeli – AOR Research methodology Data collection Analyzing results Writing Dissemination Fisher Institute – Itai Alon – AOR Airport and Flight Safety Discussion & advice Dissemination

4. Airport & Flight Safety Movements versus Safety How to measure airport safety? FOQA, Mishaps, Accidents How far can you go? IFR / VFR, Theory/Reality Xie 2004

5. Aims Compute the value of additional slots at congested airports Analyzing 30 busiest airports in United States and Europe Need to balance: capacity utilization delays Administrative systems: US based on first come first served principle Europe based on slot allocation & grandfather rights

6. ATM & Delay The aviation system is a queuing system & as demand hits capacity the delays increase non-linearly Odoni et al. (2010) measured the value of delay in the US for 2007:

7. Source: Odoni & Morisset (2011)

8. Scheduling based on VFR or IFR? 8

9. Capacity Utilization versus Delays US: airline schedules based on VFR & high capacity utilization therefore high level of delays Europe: airline schedules based on slot allocations based on IFR & low capacity utilization therefore low levels of delay estimate connection between: – runway & terminal capacity – delays – profits for airports & airlines where is it worthwhile increasing capacity & how much is an extra movement worth?

10. Europe 15 airports (2005-2013) ATM (monthly) Terminal capacity Profit Delays (monthly) Runway capacity 0.31 0.66 -0.34 In August 0.46 0.85

11. USA 15 airports (2003-2013) ATM (monthly) Terminal capacity Profit Delays (monthly) Runway capacity 0.36 0.50 -0.47 In August 0.54 0.60 -0.65 In February 0.35

12. Conclusions Airside greater impact on throughput than landside Slot allocations limit volume hence reduce delays (excessively) In Europe: worthwhile increasing slots because value of additional slot exceeds additional cost of delay Questions to be considered in second part of project: – Passenger viewpoint (schedule versus real delay) – Safety – Environmental externalities