1. Introducing a Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (in River Delta’s) Kirsten Kuipers & Dorri te Boekhorst Building on the work of prof.dr. Karl-Henrik Robert (BIT Karlskrona) December 3rd 2009

2. Outline of today and tomorrow TODAY, December 3rd 1.Starting up with personal views of and connections to sustainable development 2.Introducing systems thinking and the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (known as The Natural Step Approach) 3.Looking at three cases as examples in applying the FSSD/TNS-model 4.Exploring the FSSD in depth: e-learning in teams 5.Group assignments: working on a case you choose yourselves; practice in applying the FSSD

3. Outline of today and tomorrow TOMORROW, December 4th 1.Continue to work on your own case; preparing a presentation 2.Possibility for coaching / asking questions: Friday > 11.00 a.m. 3.Friday 2.45 p.m.: group presentations of the cases on which you applied the FSSD/TNS- framework

4. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Systems thinking  Individuals  Groups

5. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step TID Forests Agriculture Fisheries Ground water Climate Metals and Chemicals Developing countries Global justice Interpersonal trust ”Stories of meaning”

6. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Strategic opportunities… …for those who foresee change: Resource costs Waste management Tax, insurance, legislation, loans International agreements New markets Trust Citizens/employees Trade value

7. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step People are fantastic! So what’s the problem?

10. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step About drill-holes…

11. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Structured overview …and how to make use of drill-holes

13. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Investing with success in mind… Backcasting

14. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Nobody can look into the future…

15. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step …but we can invent it!

16. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Finding a unifying theory Theoretical science Empirical Science

17. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Principals… - Necessary - Enough - General - Concrete - Distinct Sustainable Vision Time

18. “Systems thinking is a discipline for seeing wholes, recognizing patterns and interrelationships, and learning how to structure those interrelationships in more effective, efficient ways.” Peter Senge Systems thinking

19. International NGO Scientific consensus TNS Framework Leadership Strategic Investments

20. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step

21. So what could we agree on?

22. Level 1, System

23. Slow geological cycles (volcano eruptions and weathering) Slow geological cycles (sedimentation and mineralization) Closed system with respect to matter 1) Nothing disappears 2) Everything disperses Open system with respect to energy « Photosynthesis pays the bill » Sustainability is about the ability of these cycles to run indefinitely Cycles of nature

24. How we influence the cycles Relatively large flows of materials from the Earth’s crust Introduce persistent compounds foreign to nature Physically inhibit nature’s ability to run cycles Barriers to people meeting their basic needs worldwide

25. Copyright © 2007 The Natural Step 11:59.30 11/40th of a second before midnight: the Industrial Revolution 1/80th of a second before midnight: we discover oil 1/200th of a second before midnight, we discover how to split atoms. Cyanides Carbon dioxide Methane ammonia First plant cell approximately 3.5 billion years ago First green plant cell approximately 1.5 billion years ago First animal cell approximately 0.7-1 billion years ago 4.5 Billion Years

26. Copyright © 2007 The Natural Step Time? Evolution/Adaptation/Extinction? Which Species?

27. ...concentrations of substances extracted from the Earth’s crust,...concentrations of substances produced by society,...degradation by physical means,...people are not subject to conditions that systematically undermine their capacity to meet their needs. In a sustainable society, nature is not subject to systematically increasing... and, in that society... System Success Strategy Action Tools Level 2, Success

28. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step A B C D Level 3, Strategy

29. The ABCD-method for Backcasting

30. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step  Direction right?  Flexible platform to full success?  Good return on investment?

31. If we want to win in a complex system, we need to be able to define what success would be. This can generally not be done at the level of detail, but needs a principled definition. A principled definition of sustainable success

32. Maslows hierarchy of needs

33. Matrix of human needs FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN NEEDS AffectionProtection Understanding ParticipationSubsistence Identity Idleness Creation Freedom

34. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Organisation/Project Time Level 4, Action

35. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Time IKEA Hydro Polymers Home Depot Starbucks coffee Electrolux Nike Interface Matshushita/Panasonic Scandic Hilton Skanska …

36. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Time Agriculture Forestry Energy Traffic Materials …

37. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step - from ”fix” to innovative systems solutions - Many actors, same language

38. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Time Övertorneå SEKO (70 local gov’s) Whistler Calgary FCM Seattle Portland APA EU Round Table Chequamegon Bay Madison W I Portsmouth NH Lawrence NJ Pittsburgh/Vandergrift RA Evanston IL Duluth MN Jefferson County WI Corvallis OR …

39. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Strategic opportunities… Resource potential huge Step-by-step while ROI Main strategy to solve trade-offs Save - change Synergies between sectors and actors

40. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step ISO14001 Triple bottom line Sustainable growth Faktor 4 Cleaner Production Life Cycle Analysis Zero Emission Renewables RMA Ecological Footprinting Sustainability analysis Ecoliteracy Factor 10 Hannover Principles CSR Natural Capitalism Miljömålen EMAS EECA LCA Ecoefficiency Agenda 21 Sustainability Level 5, Tools

41. Time Organization X Pioneers of tools: ISO 14001 Indicators LCA Ecological footprints Factor 10 Zero Emission Natural Capitalism Cleaner Technology…

42. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step  Many good tools and concepts  Different strengths and gaps  None can replace structured systems perspective  Such increases the value of concepts and tools  Don’t wait for tools – get going!  Select and inform tools as needed Robèrt, K.-H., Schmidt-Bleek, B., Aloisi de Larderel, J., Basile, G., Jansen, L., Kuehr, R., Price Thomas, P. Suzuki, M., Hawken, P., and Wackernagel, M. 2001. Strategic sustainable development – selection, design and synergies off applied tools -. The Journal of Cleaner Production, 10 (2002) 197-214. Conclusions

43. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step “We cannot afford sustainable development!” (Invalid; it is un-sustainability we cannot afford) Objection 1

44. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step “We cannot afford sustainable development now! ” (Invalid; ROI step deals with this) Objection 2

45. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step “We can’t afford to go all the way!” (Invalid; bankruptcy would only follow later) Objection 3

46. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step “We cannot afford going all the way fast enough on our own!” (Valid; cross-sector cooperation necessary) Objection 4

47. Copyright © 2004 The Natural Step Examples:  OK and alcohols  Electrolux and batteries.  Whistler A B C D

48. Resort Community of Whistler

49. A world destination resort 2.5+ million visitors, $2 billion+ /year Rapid growth Winter Olympics 2010 Resort Community of Whistler

50. An Unlikely Story... ”Indulgence and Excess” Cheap Hydro power Plentiful fossil fuels ”Expand production to meet growth...”

51. www.whistler.ca WHISTLER2020 Comprehensive Sustainability Plan

52. Strategies, actions 2060 2020 Time www.whistler.ca 2005 Vision of Success (participatory) Sustainability Principles (science-based) Current reality Backcasting from principles and Whistler 2020 Vision

53. Does this action move Whistler toward our shared Vision of Success? Does this action move Whistler toward our shared Sustainability Principles? Is the action a good financial investment? Does the action present a flexible platform for further movement toward Success in the future? 2 4 3 1 i.e. avoid ’blind’ investments! Today’s decisions… … guided by strategic questions

54. www.whistler.ca Comprehensive (16 strategies, 1000’s of actions)

55. Equipment (e.g. Automobiles) Urban Design/ Re-design years space ~10~50100+ 100x m 10x m 1000x m Infrastructure Projects, Community Development Adapted from Jaccard et. al 1997 Time Scales and Investments

56. An Example...

57. ~$42 Cdn. million; 50 km., high pressure, capacity for doubled energy loads Proposed Natural Gas Pipeline...

58. Challenges… Towards Energy Sustainability vision? Towards Sustainability Principles? (incremental GHG improvement over propane)  Flexible platform?  Good ROI?

59. Capital cost ~$30 million (vs. previous $42m.) New Whistler Energy Utility And... ** New ”Energy Services” business unit (for gas company) New Proposal

60. e.g. Olympic Village Was: 100% Natural Gas Now: 100% Renewables

61. WHISTLER2020 “Best Long Term Planning” 2005 LivCom Awards, La Caruna, Spain WHISTLER2020 Moving Toward a Sustainable Future www.whistler.ca Strategic Comprehensive Participatory/decentralised

62. Case of Tualatin Valley Water District (USA)

63. The good thing is that it has been possible to… 1.…demonstrate a self-benefit of individual organizations to plan systematically towards sustainability, 2.…produce a framework for planning and selection of tools, 3.…growing the number of positive role models working like this, But the sad thing is that…

64. …many problems remain that slow the process: 1.Competitive advantage to not sharing knowledge. 2.Weak political leadership on Sustainability. 3.Mass medial focus on sensations rather than solutions. 4.Current economic framework dysfunctional (perverse subsidies, obsolete taxes). 5.…and Scientific community remains largely reductionist. Our hope relies on Local Governments!

65. Whealthy Rhine Regional cooperation for flood safety, spatial quality and economic development

66. Province of Gelderland, City region Arnhem Nijmegen, Region Rivierenland, 15 municipalities, Water board, Rijkswaterstaat, Radboud University, knowlegde institues, national fundings, advisories. Multi-stakeholder cooperation project

67. 1.Shared regional vision (umbrella for local projects): what is the problem, what are the outlines and preconditions of the solution? Time period: 2010-2050 2.Dialogue with other municipalities, and other stakeholders: companies, NGO’s, inhabitants, land owners 3.Prepare a package of measures, find financial instruments (business partners) Method project Wealthy Rhine

68. 87654 321 9 project areas

69. Sharing local wishes, dreams, and knowledgeSharing local wishes, dreams, and knowledge Sharing local wishes, dreams, and knowledge

70. Vision: Inspiration Atlas

71. Ubbergen Find local solutions, within the vision

72. Getting started yourselves Apply the 4 system conditions to the Wealthy Rhine Case

73. Prv RU -Project coördinatie (financieel/inh.) -Trainingen ondersteuners -Bijeenkomsten, verslaglegging -Knowledge gaps financiering, juridische belemmeringen -Inbreng “Best practices” -Nieuwsbrieven -Opdrachtgever aan RU -Sturing vanuit beleidskader -Bewaken samenhang en synergie Voorzitter Ondersteuners WWDuurzaam overkoepelend Ondersteuning CoP’s (lijnen zijn illustratief) Organization Toward a Sustainable Wealthy Rhine Prv

74. Thank you! K.Kuipers@science.ru.nl