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California’s Career Technical Education Challenge John Husing, Ph.D. Chief Economist Inland Empire Economic Partnership
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After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs Now Beyond All The Way Back
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U.S. & CA Unemployment History Cold War Ends Great Recession Prime Rate: 21% 5.9% 7.3%
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California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,066,400 Defense Cutbacks Dot.Com Great Recession 2011-2014 +1,315,558 2014 Up +249,158 Recovery
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Regions Central Valley Expanded Bay Area Inland Empire Los Angeles So. Coast Rest of Calif.
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Huge Adult Workforce Education Issue With 1 of 2 to 1 of 3 Adults Marginally Educated
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Great Disparity in Share: BA or Higher
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Poverty
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Much of Our Future Workforce Is Living In Poverty
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Ethnicity of Poverty, One Region
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Low Public Health Rankings of 58 Counties, 2014
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Causes of Public Health Difficulties 1.Socio-Economics 40% 2.Population’s Health Behaviors30% 3.Access to Medical Care20% 4.Environmental 10% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010 90%
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What is Needed To Attack Poverty? Short Course Adult & New Entrant Training in Specific Skills Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median Incomes Sectors That Are Adding Jobs
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Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs, Minimum Entry Level Requirements Can Help Put a Household in the Middle Class Middle Class Earnings, Minimum Skills To Enter
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Share of Jobs: Minimal Academic Requirements to Entry
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What Sectors Are Growing/Shrinking
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Manufacturing
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California Just 0.98% of U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth Jobs Are Becoming Available To Replace Aging Baby Boomer Technicians Median Pay: $48,923
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CA Electrical Costs vs. Western States
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Nestle to close Valley food Plant 360 California jobs will be lost as Hot Pockets production goes to Kentucky “In higher skilled industries they are hesitant to move because the labor force is not available anywhere. But lower- skilled one, they have an easier time leaving. That trend in California has the potential to leave lower-educated workers behind. BUSINESS Thursday, August 7, 2014 LATIMES.COM/BUSINESS :: Companies Can Leave or Not Come … It is the Workers Who Pay the Price
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Logistics
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Port Container Volumes
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Modern Manufacturing Is Logistics!
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Fulfillment Centers
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E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter Strong Job Creation Median Pay = $43,911
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CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level Monitoring Sites Mira Loma-Van Buren Riverside- Magnolia Riverside- Rubidoux Fontana-Arrow Highway Ontario-1408 Francis Street San Bernardino- 4th Street 2001 120.258.279.580.8 2002 88.492.673.767.488.9 2003 69.778.154.362.255.2 2004 *47.857.3*** 2005 **39.722.925.39.3 2006 46.231.3*27.2** 2007 43.4***** 2008 *12.415.019.319.49.5 2009 19.06.015.16.29.06.2 2010 8.06.34.06.63.25.9 2011 13.07.15.07.16.8* 2012 7.0* 10.60.0 2013 9.23.06.23.00.03.3 Change From Highest -37.0-85.4-114.0-70.7-79.5-85.6 Change -80.1%-96.6%-94.8%-95.9%-100.0%-96.3% Net Absorptiont Since Highest 101,204,114198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217 AQMD & CARB Want To Reduce The Sector’s Growth
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Construction & Real Estate: Finally A Recovery
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Share of Underwater Homes Plunging
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Negative Equity: CA is now Average
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Notices of Default At Low Levels
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Home Price Trends 70.1% 37.7% Above Existing Home -32.2% 2014,
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BUSINESS Thursday, August 7, 2014 LATIMES.COM/BUSINESS New home shrinkage Pared-down project illustrates a cause of limited housing affordability “Original plans called for a multifamily development with three times as many homes, with many more affordable options.” Now with plans modified to include 208 single family homes, prices will range from about $400,000 to 1.1 million.” NIMBY & Lawyer power under what was suppose to be the CA Environmental Quality Act
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Construction Prognosis Construction Sector Finally Strengthening Companies Are Having Trouble Finding Workers Median Pay = $51,923
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Health Care
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Physician Coverage An Issue In Many Places
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Health Care Demand Set To Explode People Without Health Insurance (2013) 6,500,179 (17.2%) People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 9,197,344 (24.0%) Population Growth Will Resume (2000-14) 4,093,385 (12.1%)
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ACS Enrollment Statistics Source: Covered California www.coveredca.com California Non-Subsidized 173,609 Subsidy Eligible1,222,320 Total1,395,929 Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014 Medi-Cal Almost 3-Times That Amount
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Health Care Prognosis Sector Is Working Through The Implications of the ACA Sector Will Undergo Tremendous Change Para-Professions/Technicians Will See Much of the Workload Median Pay = $55,475
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Other Sectors Retail Management Restaurant Management Office Assistant Escrow, Tile, Insurance, Real Estate Financial Management
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April 28, 2014 by Courtney M. Fowler California career technical education funding struggles to make the grade Shulock and her colleagues Jodi Lewis and Connie Tan created their study, “ Workforce Investments: State Strategies to Preserve Higher- Cost Career Education ” to analyze the performance of CTE programs at colleges in 20 states around the country. Workforce Investments: State Strategies to Preserve Higher- Cost Career Education “California is really lacking in terms of the importance that is being placed on CTE programs,” Shulock said. “In other states they want to support and cultivate them so that they can continue to grow, but the problem is that here we don’t seem to see how important they are so, we’re a century behind other states in an industry that important.”
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Who Is Hurt … If We Continue To Have Career Tech Under Funded? Workers Among the 9,836,900 Adults Needing Training To Reach the Middle class
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A Final Thought … Given The Importance of Career Technical Education Those Running the Efforts on Campuses Should Report Directly to their CEOs … Otherwise They are Lost in the Academic Power Struggle
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www. Johnhusing.com
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