1. Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 and Higher Education in Alabama February 2014 James H. Johnson, Jr. Allan Parnell Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

2. OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

3. what February 2014 CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL

4. 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises – Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is “In” The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

5. The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To Rise...Again!

6. SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010 Years U.S. Absolute Population Change South’s Absolute Population Change South’s Share of Change 1910-193030,974,129 8,468,30327% 1930-195028,123,138 9,339,45533% 1950-197051,886,12815,598,27930% 1970-199045,497,94722,650,56350% 1990-201060,035,66529,104,81449%

7. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010 Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, 2000-2010 Percent Population Change, 2000-2010 U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5% Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0% South114,555,74414,318,92414.3% West72,256,1838,774,85213.8% Alabama4,779,736332,6367.5%

8. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010 Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES26,884,972100.0 NORTHEAST1,753,978 6.0 MIDWEST2,480,998 9.0 SOUTH14,318,92453.0 WEST8,774,85232.0

9. STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010 Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South14,318,924100.0% Texas 4,293,741 30.0% Florida 2,818,932 19.7% Georgia 1,501,200 10.5% North Carolina 1,486,170 10.4% Other Southern States 4,218,881 29.4%

10. Migration-Induced Population Change Domestic and International

11. NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 NortheastMidwestSouthWest Total-1,032-2,008+2,287+46 Black-346-71+376 +41 Hispanic-292-109+520-117 Elderly-115+42+97-27 Foreign born-147-3+145+3 = Net Import= Net Export

12. GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010 The Region DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet 2004-20074,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136,237 2007-20103,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300 Florida DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet 2004-2007812,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817,637 2007-2010654,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001

13. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2010-2013 Region 2013 Population Absolute Population Change, 2010-2013 Percent Population Change, 2010-2013 U.S.316,128,8396,802,5542.2% Northeast55,943,073566,7511.0% Midwest67,547,890571,5690.9% South118,383,4533,525,5543.1% West74,254,4232,138,6703.0% Alabama4,883,72253,9861.1%

14. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2010-2013 Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES6,802,554100.0 NORTHEAST566,751 8.3 MIDWEST571,569 8.4 SOUTH3,525,55451.8 WEST2,138,67031.4

15. STATE SHARES OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2010-2013 Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South3,525,554100.0% Texas 1,203,01534.1% Florida736,806 20.9% Georgia 278,919 7.9% North Carolina 258,527 7.3% Virginia235,9886.7% Other Southern States812,299 23.1%

16. A Brief Immigration History

18. The Numbers YearAnnual Flow 1920-1961 206,000 1961-1992 561,000 1993-1998 800,654 1999-2004 879,400 2005-20081,137,000 2009-20121,067,000 Refugees, Parolees, Asylees YearAnnual Flow 1961-1993 65,000 1994-1998107,000 1999-2004 85,500 2005-2008 75,000 2009-2012 92,500 Legal Immigrants

19. The Numbers Cont’d Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in 1986 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated there were 5 million illegal immigrants in U.S. Since August 2005: Estimates of illegal population have ranged between $7 million and $15 million Today: An estimated 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.

20. NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2011 YearAll ClassesExchange VisitorsAcademic & Vocational Students 198111,756,903108,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) 1985 9,539,880141,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) 199017,574,055214,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) 199522,640,540241,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) 200033,690,082351,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) 200132,824,088389,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) 200227,907,139370,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) 200839,381,928506,138 (1%) 917,373 (2%) 201153,082,286526, 931 (1%)1,702,730 (3%)

22. U.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2011

23. U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 Race/EthnicityForeign PopulationShare of Total (%) Total40,381,574100.0 Hispanic18,788,300 46.5 White Alone, not Hispanic 7,608,236 18.8 Black Alone, not Hispanic 3,130,348 7.8 Asian Alone, not Hispanic 9,988,159 24.7 Other Alone, not Hispanic 866,531 2.1 February 201423

24. THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

25. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 Race2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 – 2010 Percentage Change 2000 - 2010 Total 308,745,53827,323,6329.7% Non-Hispanic 258,267,94412,151,8564.9% White 196,817,5522,264,7781.2% Black 37,685,8483,738,01111.0% AI/AN 2,247,098178,2158.6% Asian Asian 14,465,1244,341,95542.9% NH/PI NH/PI 481,576128,06736.2% 2 or More Races 2 or More Races 5,966,4811,364,33529.6% Hispanic 50,477,59415,171,77643.0%

26. NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010 Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US27,323,63291.755.5 South14,318,92479.646.4 Texas4,293,74189.265.0 Florida2,818,93284.954.7 Georgia1,501,20681.027.9 NC1,486,17061.228.3 Alabama332,63676.433.0

27. MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009 RaceTotalMaleFemale United States36.835.438.2 White Alone38.337.039.6 White, Non-Hispanic41.239.942.6 Black Alone31.329.433.3 AIAN Alone29.529.030.2 Asian Alone 33.632.634.6 NHPI Alone 29.929.530.3 Two or More Races 19.718.920.5 Hispanic27.4 27.5

28. MEDIAN AGE AND FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN SOUTH, 2005-2010 Demographic GroupMedian Age Fertility/1000 Women All Women37.758 White, Non-Hispanic42.850 African American30.061 American Indian & Native Alaskan33.565 Asian34.663 Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander28.777 Some Other Race26.788 Two Or More Races19.659 Hispanic28.380 Native Born37.455 Foreign Born40.479

29. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity20052050 White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

30. TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic2.99 Non-Hispanic White1.87 Blacks2.13 Asian2.04 Native American1.86 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

31. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity199020082011 White66%50%49.6% Blacks17%16%15.0% Hispanics15%26%26.0% Other2%8%9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

32. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity20052050 White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

33. ALABAMA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 Race2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 – 2010 Percentage Change 2000 – 2010 Total4,779,736332,6367.5 Non-Hispanic4,594,134222,8645.1 White3,204,40278,5832.4 Black1,244,43794,3618.2 AI/AN25,9074,28919.8 Asian Asian52,93721,94870.8 NH/PI NH/PI1,97691786.6 Some other Race Some other Race4,0301,40753.6 2 or More Races 2 or More Races60,44521,35954.6 Hispanic185,602109,772144.8

34. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, ALABAMA, 2000-2010 Race Absolute Change 2000 - 2010Percent of Total Total332,636100.0 Non-Hispanic222,86467.0 White78,58323.6 Black94,36128.4 American Indian4,2891.3 Asian Asian21,9486.6 Native Hawaiian Native Hawaiian9170.3 Some Other Race Some Other Race1,4070.4 Two or More Races Two or More Races21,3596.4 Hispanic109,77233.0

35. MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN ALABAMA 2005-2009 Demographic GroupMedian Age Fertility/1000 women* All Females38.9 57 White, Not Hispanic42.2 49 Black33.8 66 American Indian & Alaskan Native36.7 65 Asian33.1 71 Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander25.7 70 Some other race24.5126 Two or more races22.0 56 Hispanic23.7112 Native Born39.0 55 Foreign Born36.2 102. Source: American Community Survey *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months

36. is “In” Marrying Out

37. INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

38. EDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

39. INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

40. INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

41. THE SILVER TSUNAMI

42. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009 Age2009 Absolute Change 2000 - 2009 Percentage Change 2000 - 2009 <25104,960,2505,258,4925.3 25-4484,096,278-1,898,345-2.2 45-6479,379,43916,977,56727.2 65+39,570,5904,496,88612.8 TOTAL307,006,55024,834,5938.8

43. U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day12,34411,5419,2218,032 Average Number/Minute8.68.06.45.6

44. THE GREYING OF AMERICA U.S. Census Projections

45. ABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGE Age20052050% Change Total29643850.0 0-177310239.7 18-6418625537.1 65+3781118.9

46. OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE YEAR Age 65 or Older Age 75 or Older 199811.9%4.7% 200816.8%7.3%

47. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE IN THE SOUTH, 2000-2010 Age 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 Total114,555,74414,318,92414.3 <10 (Gen Z)15,346,3001,284,9009.1 10-29 (Gen Y)31,624,7883,247,51811.4 30-44 (Gen X)22,820,248-401,156-1.7 45-64 (Boomers)29,870,4237,731,94434.9 65+ (Pre-Boomers) 14,893,9852,455,71819.7

48. GENERATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOUTH’S POPULATION BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2010

49. ALABAMA ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2010 Age 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 All Ages4,779,736332,636 7.5 <251,611,634 48,600 3.1 25-441,228,423 -60,104- 4.9 45-641,281,887266,14620.7 65+ 657,792 77,994 3.5

50. The End of Men?

51. FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION

52. THE PLIGHT OF MEN Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to 1969. Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non-employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

53. COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREEMALEFEMALEDIFFERENCE Associate’s293,000486,000193,000 Bachelor’s702,000946,000244,000 Master’s257,000391,000134,000 Professional46,80046,400-400 Doctor’s31,50032,9001,400 TOTAL1,330,3001,902,300572,000

54. ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009 Area Total Enrollment Full Time Enrollment (%) Male Enrollment (%) Black Enrollment (%) U.S.20,966,826634313 Southeast Region 4,731,356654123 North Carolina 574,135644124 NC- 2 Yr Colleges 253,383434025

55. UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male UNC System 175,28176,95344 Majority Serving 139,25063,40346 Minority Serving 36,03113,55038 HBUs 29,86511,19137

57. JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry WomenMen Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451,800 +118,100 Government +176,000 +12,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

58. COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S WELL And Grandpa’s Too!

59. CHILDREN LIVING IN NON- GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT HOUSEHOLDS, 2001-2010 Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change 2001-2010 Percent Change 2001-2010 All 74,7182,712 3.8 No Grandparents 67,209 917 1.4 Both Grandparents 2,610 77141.9 Grandmother Only 1,922 164 9.3 Grandfather Only 318 7128.7

60. CHILDREN LIVING IN NON- GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT- HEADED HOUSEHOLDS BY PRESENCE OF PARENTS, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only Living with Neither parent All 74,71869.3%23.1%3.4%4.0% No Grandparents 67,20973.4%21.2%3.3%2.1% Both Grandparents 2,61018.1%40.6%5.2%36.1% Grandmother Only 1,92213.8%48.4%4.5%33.2% Grandfather Only 31826.4%45.9%4.4%23.6%

61. GRANDPARENTS LIVING WITH GRANDCHILDREN AGES 18 AND YOUNGER IN THE SOUTH 20052010 Total1,381,4132,383,981 Grandparents Responsible for Grandchildren 671,9391,409,413 Child's Parents in Household 290,882946,390

62. ...but Challenges Abound DIVERSITY RULES

64. ...but insufficient...but insufficient Education is Necessary

65. AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION Education1990-19932001-2004% Change Less Than High School24.7%23.7% High School Graduate40.6%34.3%-6.3 Some College20.7%24.4%3.7 Bachelor’s Degree or More 14.0%17.6%3.6

66. AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION Occupation1990-19932001-2004% Change Blue Collar40.5%31.6%-8.9 Service Occupation14.3%16.7%2.4 White Collar38.5%44.4%5.9

67. THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009 PROFESSION % OF ALL JOBLESS WORKERS Architecture & Engineering41.2 Management39.0 Community & Social Services Occupations36.1 Installation, Maintenance & Repair Work34.9 Production Occupations33.4

68. CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, 2005-2007, 2008-2010 Educational Attainment 2005-20072008-2010 Percent Change Less than High School 253,304276,757 9.3% High School Graduate 216,667234,371 8.2% Some College, Associate Degree 136,185186,83437.2% Bachelor’s degree or higher 49,082 57,91918.0% Source: American Community Survey

69. THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

70. Implications for Workforce Planning and Development Managing transition from the “graying” to the “browning” of America. Competition for talent will be fierce – and global. Embrace immigrants. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of “diversity” issues. Actively engage in K-12 Education to ensure a steady flow of talent into higher education. Prepare students for the freelance economy July 201370

71. GROWING DEPENDENCY A Train Wreck in the Making

72. DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

73. DEPENDENCY RATES FOR SELECTED SOUTHERN STATES, 2006-2010 Dependency Rate Georgia 67.4 Counties with Population Decline (31)100.4 Counties Growing 0.1-10% (44)75.2 Counties Growing 10% or more (84)62.6 Dependency Rate North Carolina 68.7 Tier 1 90.5 Tier 2 71.3 Tier 3 56.6 Dependency Rate Alabama 80.9 5 Counties with Greatest % Loss 152.5 5 Counties with Greatest % Gain 67.1

74. THE END

75. Supplementary Slides Immigrant Costs and Benefits

77. Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Economic Impact of Immigrants

78. Data and Methods Immigrant Buying Power (after-tax income) Reduced by 16 percent for remittances, savings, interest payments Input-Output Model to Generate Direct and Indirect Effects – Total Business Revenue – Spin-Off Jobs – State and Local Taxes Economic Output, Direct Taxes Paid, and Public Costs from Government Sources

79. Estimated Immigrant Economic Impact PlaceBuying Power Economic Impact Spin-Off Employment Spin-off Labor Income Spin-off State Taxes North Carolina (2004) $8.3b$9.2b89,600$2.4b$455m Arkansas (2004) $2.7b$2.9b23,100$618m$144m Arkansas (2010) $4.3b$3.9b36,100$1.3b$237m

80. Estimated Cost of Essential Services ServiceNorth Carolina 2004 Arkansas 2004 Arkansas 2010 K-12 Education$467m$186m$460m Health Care$299m$38m$57m Corrections$51m$15m$38m Total$817m$237m$555m

81. Estimated Tax Contributions PlaceDirectIndirect Business Indirect Personal Total North Carolina (2004) $408m$222m$126m$756m Arkansas (2004) $193m$47m$17m$257m Arkansas (2010) $412m$74m$38m$524m

82. Estimated Net Fiscal Impact PlaceCost of Essential Services Tax Contributions Net Impact on State Budget Per-capita Impact North Carolina (2004) $817m$756m-$61m-$102 Arkansas (2004) $237m$257m+19m+158 Arkansas (2010) $555m$524m-$31m-$127

83. SUMMARY RESULTS OF THREE ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDIES IndicatorNorth Carolina Hispanics 2004 Arkansas Immigrants 2004 Arkansas Immigrants 2010 Consumer Expenditures & Tax Contributions $9.2b ($15, 130) $2.9b ($23,577) $3.9b ($16,300) Cost of Essential Services $817m ($1,360) $237m ($1,927) $555m ($2,300) Net Benefit8.3b ($13,770) 2.67b ($21,951) $3.4b ($13,900) Benefit-Cost Ratio$10.00-$1.00$11.00-$1.00$6.00-$1.00

84. Projected Changes in U.S. Buying Power by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2015 Race/Ethnic Group 20102015Projected Change All Groups$11.1 trillion$14.1 trillion27% Hispanics$ 1.0 trillion$ 1.5 trillion50% Asians$ 544.0 billion$775.0 billion42% African Americans $ 957.0 billion$ 1.2 trillion25% Native Americans$ 67.7 billion$ 90.4 billion34%

85. Value-Adds of Immigrants Boost economic growth & prosperity Fuel knowledge creation Contribute to innovation & technological progress Raise human capital levels & diversify business leadership Fill 3-D jobs Increase tax revenues