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NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Procedure for Dworshak Inflow

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Presentation on theme: "NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Procedure for Dworshak Inflow"— Presentation transcript:

1 NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Procedure for Dworshak Inflow
Intro KB – NWRFC talk about the 2006 seasonal volume fx Steve King, Hydrologist Rick van der Zweep, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center

2 NWRFC Water Supply Forecast Process
Regression Model Stepwise linear Combined Index vs Observed Flows Manual Adjustment Forecasts QC inputs Forecasters adjust output based on a variety of inputs Inter-basin Cross Plots Forecast Coordination Intro KB – NWRFC talk about the 2006 seasonal volume fx

3 Regression Model Step-wise Linear Approach
Combined Index incorporates: Precip, Snow, & Runoff

4 Single Equation for Entire Forecast Period
One Single Equation Applied Through Forecast Season Observed Precip, Snow, Runoff Normal Subsequent Precip Feb 1 Fcst Mar 1 Fcst

5 Dworshak Forecast Components (Feb 1, 2007 states)
Oct-Nov Fall Runoff Natural Flow = 174% Feb 1 Snow Water Equivalent (70% Combined Winter Precip Term) Pierce (.27 rel wt) = 77% Shanghai Summit (.20 rel wt) = 86% Lolo Pass (.19 rel wt) = 86% Hoodoo Creek (.11 rel wt) = 83% Lost Lake (.10 rel wt) = 82 Nov-Jan Precipitation (30% Combined Winter Precip Term) Avery R.S. (.40 rel wt) = % Orofino (.30 rel wt) = % Pierce (.30 rel wt) = % Kooskia R.S. (.25 rel wt) = % Fenn R.S. (.20 rel wt) = % Feb-Jun Mean Subsequent Precipitation Assumption of 80% Normal for February Assumption of 100% Normal for March-June Weighted Mean = 82% Seasonal Wt Mean = 124% This afternoons agenda I'll start out with an introduction and will be followed by...

6 Dworshak WS Forecast Trend
2.46 MAF (93%) This afternoons agenda I'll start out with an introduction and will be followed by...

7 Dworshak ESP Forecast Trend
2.43 MAF (92%) This afternoons agenda I'll start out with an introduction and will be followed by...

8 Dworshak Forecast Verification Feb 1 Final Forecast of Apr-Jul Period
2001 2003 2002 2005 2004 2006 Feb Final Forecast, Apr-Jul Period (KAF) Observed Adj. Apr-Jul Volume (KAF) This afternoons agenda I'll start out with an introduction and will be followed by...

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