1. Ocean Acidification and Warming Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic; sdoney@whoi.edu Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making, Carnegie Mellon University, May 2011

2. 2− [CO 3 ][CO 2 ]  100−150%  50% 2100 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 1800190020002100 50 40 30 20 10 0 300 240 180 120 60 0 pH μmol kg −1 Year pH CO 2(aq) CO 3 2−  30% acidity  16% [CO 3 ] 2000 2− Wolf-Gladrow et al. (1999) Ocean Acidification CO 2 + H 2 OH 2 CO 3 H + + CO 3 2- HCO 3 - H + + HCO 3 - CO 2 + CO 3 + H 2 O 2- 2HCO 3 - −− < > −−

3. from the NCAR CCSM3 model projections using the IPCC A2 CO 2 Emission Scenario; Feely, Doney and Cooley, Oceanography (2009) pH Distribution in Surface Waters warm water corals deep water corals

4. -Reduced shell formation Corals, mollusks, some plankton, crustaceans -Habitat loss coral & oyster reefs -Less food for predators humans, fish, whales -Large uncertainties organism ability to adapt food-webs & ecosystems Possible Biological Impacts Corals: warm & cold-water lobsters, crabs some plankton pteropods planktonic snails scallops, clams, oysters

5. Mollusk Response Mytilus edulis & Crassostrea gigas Gazeau et al., 2007; Green et al. L&O 2009; Talmage & Gobler L&O 2009; PNAS 2010 Decreased calcification at elevated pCO 2 CO 2 impacts on larval & juvenile stages: -increased mortality -reduced shell growth & settlement Commercially important species (wild harvest & aquaculture) -mussels -oysters -hard clams -bay scallops

6. Net importers Net exporters Cooley, Lucey, Kite-Powell, & Doney, Fish & Fisheries, submitted Vulnerability to Ocean Acidification Index Based on Mollusk Fisheries Protein insufficient Mollusks ≥ 1% of protein Both Least adaptable Most adaptable

7. Willapa Bay Oyster Hatchery Failure -Pacific NW aquaculture $110 million revenue & 3000 jobs -Recent failure of larval oyster recruitment 2007-2008 production reduced to ~25% normal -Low pH upwelled waters possible leading factor -Adaptation strategies adjust water chemistry monitor to “pick your moment” switch cultured species North Pacific Shellfish Growers Assoc.; Alan Barton, per. comm. 2010 Whiskey Creek Shellfish Hatchery in Netarts Bay, OR, produces 75-80% of larvae sold to Pacific NW growers

8. Coral reefs: fisheries, tourism & coastal protection Photo: NOAA Coral Reef Watch Cooley, Kite-Powell, and Doney Oceanography (2009) -Coral reef fisheries US$5.7 B/yr -Reefs protect shorelines from waves & storms US$9.0 B/yr -Tourism generates much of the resources’ value

9. Decision makers -Research & monitoring needs (NSF, NOAA, NASA, EPA) NRC report; ORRAP Task Force report EPA NODA for Clean Water Act -Fishery & resource managers (NMFS, Sanctuaries, States) -Environmental NGOs -Industry stakeholders aquaculture & seafood groups NRC report (2010) EPOCA Reference User Group

10. -How will OA impact lives & livelihoods? economy & jobs of U.S. coastal communities global and national security (food supply) -What are net benefits & possible losses? commercial & recreational fisheries aquaculture recreation, tourism, ecosystem & cultural services -How will coupled human-natural systems respond? adaptive behavior under evolving conditions -Substantial information needs natural & social sciences targeting key fisheries thresholds & timeframes multiple human stressors value of additional information -Decision making under uncertainty Summary & Research Needs

11. Tropical Corals 199 0 206 5 Calcification decreases by 10% to >50% Acidification reduces coral calcification & growth Corals threatened also by warming, over-fishing & pollution Langdon and Atkinson 2005 Feely & Doney ASLO © 2011

13. Coral Reefs, Warming and Rising CO 2 Silverman et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009

14. Climate Change & Acidification Impacts in the field 328 Porites samples from 69 Sites along the Great Barrier Reef De’ath, Lough and Fabricius (2009) Science Threshold passed around 1990

15. Harmful Algal Bloom Closures Jin et al., 2008, Oce. Coast. Mgmt. New England closures, 2005 Direct impacts on commercial shellfish fisheries ≥ $2.4M in ME ≤ $18M in MA limited data Broader impacts on market increased imports price changes in NY MA mussel landingsME softshell clam landings Estimated declines over 2005 season

16. Harmful Algal Bloom Closures (2) Recreational razor clam fishery creates 404 jobs & $12.6M labor income for 2 counties in WA -Seasonal expenditures = $24.4M -Average expenditure per party = $270-$412 1 year of HAB-related closures impact 339 jobs & $10.6M labor income Dyson & Huppert, 2010, Harmful Algae; WA Dept. of Fish & Wildlife

17. Pacific Northwest Shellfish Industry -Commercial harvest of shellfish in the Pacific NW from 1860s -Increasing reliance on hatcheries (declining natural recruitment) -Economic Impacts: 3000 jobs in WA, OR, CA, AK, HI farm gate value $110 million/yr total contribution $278 million/yr to rural coastal communities North Pacific Shellfish Growers Assoc. Alan Barton, per. comm. 2010

18. Global Fisheries & Food Supply FAO 2007; 2009 Inland capture Inland aquaculture Marine aquaculture Marine capture -Global protein demand increasing growth in human population standard of living & dietary diversification -Marine wild capture stable & aquaculture growing capture US$ 91 billion; aquaculture US$ 79 billion; aquatic plants US$ 7 billion aquaculture: marine (34%) & brackish (8%) China ~half of global value for aquaculture

19. Cooley, Kite-Powell & Doney Oceanography (2009) Cooley et al. Fish & Fisheries (submitted) Global Shellfish Fisheries Uninfluenced Predators Crustaceans (crabs, etc) Bivalves (oysters, etc.)

21. Wild Harvest Aquaculture

23. Doney, Science (2010); Science

24. Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst. sdoney@whoi.edu Additional Reading Cooley, S.R. and S.C. Doney, 2009: Anticipating ocean acidification’s economic consequences for commercial fisheries, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 024007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/2/024007 Cooley, S., H.L. Kite-Powell, S.C. Doney, 2009: Ocean acidification’s potential to alter global marine ecosystem services, Oceanography, 22(4), 172-180. Doney, S.C., 2010: The growing human footprint on coastal and open- ocean biogeochemistry, Science, 328, 1512-1516 Cooley, S.R., N. Lucey, H. Kite-Powell, and S.C. Doney, Nutrition and income from mollusks today imply vulnerability to ocean acidification tomorrow, Fish and Fisheries, submitted. National Research Council, 2010: Ocean Acidification: A National Strategy to Meet the Challenges of a Changing Ocean, National Academies Press, Washington DC, ISBN 0-309-153659-X, 188pp.