1. Is the Playing Field Leveling in Peru? The Evolution of Children’s Opportunities Javier Escobal, GRADE & Young Lives –Peru (and LCSPP/PREMPR – World Bank) Human Rights, Development and Economic Growth - Metrics, New Ways of Thinking, and New Strategies April 7-8, 2011, Elliott School, Washington, DC

2. Outline o Motivation: Recent trends in Poverty and Inequality o The Human Opportunity Index o Results based on Repeated Cross-Sections LSMS o Some additional Results from a Longitudinal Sample Young Lives (Niños del Milenio) Access versus quality Multiple deprived children

3. The Context: Recent trends in Poverty and Inequality Peru 2004-2009 - Poverty incidence and Gini coefficients Poverty Peru Poverty Urban Poverty Rural Gini (per capita expenditure) 2004 48.637.169.8 0.375 2005 48.736.870.9 0.379 2006 44.531.269.3 0.385 2007 39.325.764.6 0.379 2008 36.223.559.8 0.353 2009 34.821.160.3 0.358 Sources: Poverty and Gini figures come from ENAHO 2004-2009. Gini figures are obtained from spatially price adjusted per capita expenditures. Adjusted Gini corrects the inequality index by the discrepancy between household survey data and national accounts.

4. The Context: Inequality o Some gaps are narrowing … but some gaps are expanding o Education (gap ↓) o Urban/Rural (gap ↑) o Large, Medium, small cities, rural towns, and disperse rural areas (gap ↑)

5. In relation to Children Wellbeing Basic Statistics: Child Wellbeing 20002005200720082009 Stunting (chronic malnutrition) Peru (NCHS/CDC/OMS standard)25.422.922.621.518.3 Urban13.49.911.8 9.9 Rural40.240.136.936.032.8 Bottom 20%N.A.46.845.145.037.1 Top 20%N.A.4.34.25.42.3 Low Weight at Birth (<2.5 kg) Peru (OMS standard)N.A.8.78.47.27.1 UrbanN.A.7.87.76.46.6 RuralN.A.10.69.58.98.4 Bottom 20%N.A.12.111.710.38.9 Top 20%N.A.5.47.24.84.9 Source: INEI. Based on DHS Survey

6. The Context: Inequality in the access to basic services in Children o In addition to stunting and low weight at birth: Acute Diarrhea (gap ↓) Pre-natal checkups (gap ↓) Delivery in a Health Institution (gap ↓) Growth monitoring (gap ↓) Full Immunization (gap ↑) Acute respiratory Infections (gap ↑) Access to identity card (gap ↑) Anemia (gap ≈)

7. Probability of Starting Primary School on Time (2009) Rosa is one of five children of a single mother whose native language is Quechua and who received only one year of formal education during her own childhood. The household’s income falls in the bottom quartile among all Peruvian households. Luis is the only child of high school-educated parents whose native tongue is Spanish. His household is among the top quarter in terms of income

8. Inequality of Opportunity o The Human Opportunity Index ( O) incorporates into a single composite indicator both overall access rates and the D-index measure of opportunity distribution. o The index combines average access to opportunities with how equitably those opportunities are distributed ( D). The proposed index is given by

9. Areas with big Improvements Finishing primary on time HOI (level) HOI (annual change)

10. Areas were improvement is meager: Access to drinkable water HOI (level) HOI (annual change)

11. Results from Repeated Cross-Sections: Education 2004 2009 Coverage rate (%) Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%) Coverage rate (%) Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%) Pre-school attendance (4-5)77.5110.3669.5 82.806.7777.2 Begin primary school on time67.0410.4660.0 70.259.1763.8 Finish primary (6th) on time54.7517.4645.2 58.3414.5549.9 School attendance (ages 10-14)94.682.1792.6 96.841.2995.6

12. Relative importance of different circumstances in determining HOI for Education (2009)

13. Finishing Primary on Time

14. HOI related to Access to key Household Services 20042009 Coverage rate (%) Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%) Coverage rate (%) Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%) Adequate water supply57.8421.5745.461.0020.3448.6 Adequate sanitation58.5625.3343.765.1915.9854.8 Electricity68.2824.1251.878.6614.4867.3 Access to telephone14.6945.398.062.9817.7051.8

15. Relative importance of different circumstances in determining HOI for Infrastructure (2009)

16. Evidence from Longitudinal Data: Young Lives o Young Lives: An international study of childhood poverty 12,000 children in 4 countries over 15 years) Longitudinal project gathering comparable information in Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru and Vietnam o In Peru YL is tracking a representative sample of Peruvian children from two cohorts: a younger cohort who were aged between 6 months and 18 months in 2002 (born 2000) and an older cohort of children aged between 7.5 years old and 8.5 years old in 2002 (born 1994) o Advantages from the point of view of studying Inequality of opportunities o A larger set of circumstances o A larger array of Child wellbeing indicators (opportunities) o Following the children through their life cycle. o Data in the Public Domain

17. Evidence from Longitudinal Data: Young Lives o Taking advantage of a broader set of circumstances at least for Peru, extending the basic sets of circumstances (i.e. urban/rural residence location; per capita household expenditure; gender; mother’s native language; educational attainment of the head of household and number of siblings) does not have an important effect on the HOI levels or their trends. Circumstances added: altitude of the dwelling were the children lives and the distance to the health facilities (as indicators or remoteness) mother’s marital status, mother’s migration status and regions of residence (Costa, Sierra, Selva) Basic circumstances were already capturing the bulk of the circumstance set. In particular mother’s native language; educational attainment and urban/rural location

18. Evidence from Longitudinal Data: Young Lives Decomposition of Human Opportunity Index Changes for selected Outcomes Younger Cohort - Panel Sample (considering extended circumstances) Coverage Effect (1) Distributiona l Effect (2) Change in HOI (3)=(1)+(2) Relative Importance of the Distributional effect (4)=(2)/(3) Has electricity7.65.913.443.7 Has proper sewerage0.80.21.020.0 Well Nourish (not stunted)-6.1-3.1-9.333.4 Well Nourish (not underweighted)0.90.41.228.7 Source: YL data using Paes de Barros et al. (2008) methodology

19. YL: Changes in the Human Opportunity Index Within Urban and Rural Regions URBAN HOI R1 HOI R2 Coverage Effect Distribution al Effect Changes in HOI Has electricity 80.184.94.100.704.80 Has proper sewerage 52.655.83.42-0.233.19 Well Nourish (not stunted) 77.872.5-3.60-1.73-5.33 Well Nourish (not underweighted) 94.695.80.910.331.23 Rural HOI R1 HOI R2 Coverage Effect Distribution al Effect Changes in HOI Has electricity 21.535.912.192.2014.39 Has proper sewerage 2.64.11.140.411.55 Well Nourish (not stunted) 46.934.2-13.000.32-12.68 Well Nourish (not underweighted) 86.688.50.910.961.86

20. Coverage Rates for Children under Alternative Circumstances Young Lives - Younger Cohort Indigenous LanguageNon-Indigenous Language More than 4 siblings3 or fewer siblings Low EducationHigh Education & Income ROUND 1 Has electricity 41.7%90.9% Has proper sewerage 6.2%73.2% Well Nourish-R1 (1-Stun) 43.5%88.2% Well Nourish-R1 (1-Maln) 83.2%98.2% ROUND 2 Has electricity 49.4%94.6% Has proper sewerage 7.7%79.2% Well Nourish-R2 (1-Stun) 32.6%87.9% Well Nourish-R2 (1-Maln) 87.9%99.0% Changes between Rounds (in percentage points) Has electricity 7.7%3.7% Has proper sewerage 1.5%6.0% Well Nourish-R2 (1-Stun) -10.9%-0.3% Well Nourish-R2 (1-Maln) 4.7%0.8% Note: Indicators are based in the Panel sub-sample

21. For the Older Cohort Human Opportunity Index Decomposition for selected Outcomes Older Cohort - Panel Sample (considering extended circumstances) Change in Coverage Effect (1) Distribution al Effect (2) Change in HOI (3)=(1)+(2) Relative Importance of the Distributional effect (4)=(2)/(3) Has electricity6.95.412.3 43.9 Has proper sewerage3.03.56.5 53.4 Well Nourish- (Not Stunted)-6.8-2.1-8.9 23.9 Verbal Skills29.011.040.1 27.4 Math Skills37.913.351.2 26.0 Not being overage5.9-0.15.7 n.a. Not working-5.8-0.3-6.0 4.8 Source: YL data using Paes de Barros et al. (2008) methodology

22. Conditioning for first round opportunities in Round 2 HOI for Well Nourished Children (not stunted) Younger Cohort Round 1Round 2 6-18 month4.5-5.5 Years Basic Circumstances Basic Circumstances + Outcomes R1 Urban77.872.571.5 Rural46.934.230.1 Gap30.938.341.4 Note: Outcomes R1 include Electricity, Water, Sanitation, Vaccine card

23. What happens when we look at individual trajectories?

24. Basic and Extended Sets of Circumstances and Nutritional Trajectories between ages 5 and 8 Basic Set of Circumstances Catch up between 5 and 8y Stunted at 5 and 8y Child sex (1=male)46%52%* Mother's language (1=spanish)51%40%* Education of the Household Head (years)6.75.9* Single Parent household (2006)13% Number of siblings (excluding index child) (2006)1.82.1 Assets Value Index 2006 (at Median Prices of 2006)764542 Per capita household expenditure 2002 (monthly)7368* Per capita household expenditure 2006 (monthly)9184* Per capita household expenditure 2009 (monthly)107101 Altitude (2006)21612234 Female head of household (2002)88%90% Mother's education (years of formal education)6.04.7*** Area of residence (2002) (1=urban)41%33%* Area of residence (2006) (1=urban)45%35%** Area of residence (2009) (1=urban)52%39%*** The household has received Juntos conditional transfers in some period between 2005 and 200936%46% Number of months the family received CCTs between 2005 and 20097.610.1* Statistical difference at 99% (***) 95% (**) and 90% (*) confidence Source: own estimations based on Young Lives dataset. Only younger cohort is analyzed (i.e. children born in 2001)

25. Early opportunities and increasing access to basic services Recovered from stunting between 5 and 8y Stunted at 5 and 8y Nutrition and Health related opportunities Received pre-natal care90%87% Normal weight at birth93%90%* Was not weigthed at birth20%23% Has a vaccination card (2002)88% Low height for age in 2002 (Stunting)38%76%*** Low weight for age in 20027%23%*** Consumed proteines in last 24hours-200688%84% Cognitive related opportunities School attendence in 2006 (preschool level)77%70%* Access to basic services Improved sanitation facilities At age 1 (2002)64%63% At age 5 (2006)78%74% At age 8 (2009)93%86%*** Improved drinking water At age 1 (2002)47%41% At age 5 (2006)48%46% At age 8 (2009)69%68% Time to the nearest education center10.88.8 Time to the nearest health center48.844.2 Statistical difference at 99% (***) 95% (**) and 90% (*) confidence Source: own estimations based on Young Lives dataset. Only younger cohort is analyzed (i.e. children born in 2001)

26. One last Topic: Capturing differences in quality: the devil is in the details Coverage rate (%) Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%) Education School attendance (ages 10-14) (ENAHO 2009)96.841.2995.59 Begin primary school on time (ENAHO 2009)70.259.1763.81 Finish primary (6th) on time (ENAHO 2009)58.3414.5549.86 Coverage rate (%) Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%) Electricity Some Access to Electricity (YL Round 1) 60.6825.0945.45 Electricity all days (last 15 days) (YL Round 1) 58.8525.3343.95 Electricity 24 hours (YL Round 1) 57.8625.4143.16 Coverage rate (%) Dissimilarity Index (%) HOI (%) Water Access de piped drinkable water (YL Round 2)59.1211.7052.20 Access 7 days a week (YL Round 2)47.7111.3142.31 Access 24 hours (YL Round 2)21.4515.2718.17

27. Thanks! YL data available at ESDS - UK http://www.ninosdelmilenio.org http://www.younglives.org.uk