1. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [1][1] Our seas of tomorrow A challenging synthesis! By Dr. Ir. Georges Pichot Head MUMM

2. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [2][2] 1.Data fusion 2.Sea observatories 3.Biodiversity 4.Risks 5.MUMM and Europe 6.MUMM and the world

3. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [3][3] 1. Data fusion Models Satellite imagery Satellite imagery In situ observations In situ observations Databases Other sources Data assimilation Monitoring optimalisation Better link between oceanography and information theory

4. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [4][4] 2. Sea observatories / 1 A « good weather » oceanography? A « good weather » oceanography?

5. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [5][5] 2. Sea observatories / 2 Current meter Temperature & Conductivity meter Turbidity meter Passive Cetacean monitor system Passive sampler Particle sizer Current profiler

6. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [6][6] 2. Sea observatories / 3 From BHV to BSAT…  High value of the instrumentation  High value of the information gathered  But challenge: the recuperation! Need for an appropriate technological and reglementary framework insuring a good working of (two) sea observatories in the Belgian marine waters on a permanent basis

7. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [7][7] 3. Biodiversity / 1

8. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [8][8] 3. Biodiversity / 2 Biodiversity Index X  tt  xx  yy  zz [] = F Better link between (marine) biology and complex systems theory

9. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [9][9] 4. Risks / 1

10. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [10] 4. Risks / 1

11. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [11] 4. Risks / 1

12. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [12] 4. Risks / 1

13. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [13] 4. Risks / 1

14. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [14] 4. Risks / 1

15. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [15] 4. Risks / 1

16. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [16] 4. Risks / 1

17. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [17] 4. Risks / 2 The other side of the medal… 50% increase of the risks of maritime accidents in the Belgian marine waters, calling for prevention and mitigation measures Need for harmonized and transparent methods of risk analysis, for an identification of actions allowing to keep these risks at an acceptable level

18. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [18] 5. MUMM and Europe / 1 Key fact : the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) Objective : To reach [by 2020] the Good Environmental Status of the European marine ecosystem Problem : A regulatory framework with aspirational objectives

19. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [19] 5. MUMM and Europe / 2 The Belgian « marinecometer »

20. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [20] 5. MUMM and Europe / 3 Belgian score : 64/100 From Halpern B.S. et al. (2012), An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean, Nature, 488 : 615-620. ! But the quality of a marine ecosystem is something else than the arithmetic mean of several indicators. Need to develop harmonized methods of integrated ecosystem assessment at EU level

21. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [21] 6. MUMM and the world / 1 MUMM’s priority : To provide sound scientific advices helping the Belgian authorities in their decision making process in marine affairs. BUT remaining open to the world.

22. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [22] 6. MUMM and the world / 2 There are more than 1450 COHERENS users in a total of 83 countries

23. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [23] 6. MUMM and the world / 3 There are more 13 marine sites in the world where the MUMM algorithms on Ocean Colour are actively used

24. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [24] Need to develop “generic” marine sciences which could be applicable and useful, all over the world 6. MUMM and the world / 4

25. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [25] 1.Data fusion Better link between oceanography and information theory 2.Sea observatories Need for an appropriate technological and reglementary framework insuring a good working of (two) sea observatories 3.Biodiversity Better link between (marine) biology and complex systems theory 4.Risks Need for harmonized and transparent methods of risk analysis 5.MUMM and Europe Need to develop harmonized methods of integrated ecosystem assessment at EU level 6.MUMM and the world Need to develop “generic” marine sciences Final message

26. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [26] And, now, my very last slide…

27. Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models MUMM | BMM | UGMM http://www.mumm.ac.be/ Our seas of tomorrow Brussels, 31 October 2012 [27] Thank you for your attention Thank you for your friendship during all these years of nice work together!