Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy"— Presentation transcript:

1 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy
19 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

2 Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds
The market for loanable funds In an open economy S = I + NCO Saving = Domestic investment + Net capital outflow Supply of loanable funds From national saving (S) Demand for loanable funds From domestic investment (I) And net capital outflow (NCO)

3 Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds
The market for loanable funds Loanable funds - interpreted as Domestically generated flow of resources available for capital accumulation Purchase of a capital asset Adds to the demand for loanable funds Asset – located at home: I Asset – located abroad: NCO If NCO > 0, net outflow of capital - adds to demand If NCO < 0, net inflow of capital - reduce the demand

4 Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds
The market for loanable funds Higher real interest rate Encourages people to save Increases quantity of loanable funds supplied Discourages investment Decreases quantity of loanable funds demanded Discourages Americans from buying foreign assets Reduces U.S. net capital outflow Encourages foreigners to buy U.S. assets

5 Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds
The market for loanable funds Supply of loanable funds Slopes upward Demand of loanable funds Slopes downward At equilibrium interest rate Amount that people want to save Exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net capital outflow

6 The market for loanable funds
1 The market for loanable funds Real Interest Rate Supply of loanable funds (from national saving) Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Equilibrium real interest rate Equilibrium quantity Quantity of Loanable Funds The interest rate in an open economy, as in a closed economy, is determined by the supply and demand for loanable funds. National saving is the source of the supply of loanable funds. Domestic investment and net capital outflow are the sources of the demand for loanable funds. At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the amount that people want to borrow for the purpose of buying domestic capital and foreign assets.

7 Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The market for foreign-currency exchange Identity: NCO = NX Net capital outflow = Net exports If trade surplus, NX > 0 Foreigners - buy more U.S. goods & services Than Americans - buy foreign goods & services Americans – use foreign currency Buy foreign assets Capital is flowing abroad, NCO > 0

8 Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The market for foreign-currency exchange If trade deficit, NX < 0 Americans - buy more foreign goods & services Than foreigners - buy U.S. goods & services Some of this spending Financed by selling American assets abroad Foreign capital is flowing into U.S. NCO < 0

9 Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The market for foreign-currency exchange Supply of foreign-currency exchange Net capital outflow Quantity of dollars supplied - buy foreign assets Supply curve – vertical Quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow Does not depend on the real exchange rate

10 Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The market for foreign-currency exchange Demand for foreign-currency exchange Net exports Quantity of dollars demanded – buy U.S. net exports of goods and services Demand curve - downward sloping A higher real exchange rate Makes U.S. goods more expensive Reduces the quantity of dollars demanded to buy those goods

11 Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange
The market for foreign-currency exchange Equilibrium real exchange rate Demand for dollars By foreigners Arising from U.S. net exports of goods & services Exactly balances supply of dollars From Americans Arising from U.S. net capital outflow

12 The market for foreign-currency exchange
2 The market for foreign-currency exchange Real Exchange Rate Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow) Demand for dollars (for net exports) Equilibrium real exchange rate Equilibrium quantity Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency The real exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand for foreign-currency exchange. The supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency comes from net capital outflow. Because net capital outflow does not depend on the real exchange rate, the supply curve is vertical. The demand for dollars comes from net exports. Because a lower real exchange rate stimulates net exports (and thus increases the quantity of dollars demanded to pay for these net exports), the demand curve is downward sloping. At the equilibrium real exchange rate, the number of dollars people supply to buy foreign assets exactly balances the number of dollars people demand to buy net exports.

13 Equilibrium in the Open Economy
Net capital outflow: link between the two markets Identities Market for loanable funds: S = I + NCO Market for foreign-currency exchange: NCO=NX Net-capital-outflow curve Link between Market for loanable funds Market for foreign-currency exchange

14 How net capital outflow depends on the interest rate
3 How net capital outflow depends on the interest rate Real Interest Rate Net capital outflow is negative Net Capital Outflow Net capital outflow is positive Because a higher domestic real interest rate makes domestic assets more attractive, it reduces net capital outflow. Note the position of zero on the horizontal axis: Net capital outflow can be positive or negative. A negative value of net capital outflow means that the economy is experiencing a net inflow of capital.

15 Equilibrium in the Open Economy
Simultaneous equilibrium in two markets Market for loanable funds Supply: national saving Demand: domestic investment & net capital outflow Equilibrium real interest rate, r Net capital outflow Slopes downward Equilibrium interest rate, r

16 Equilibrium in the Open Economy
Simultaneous equilibrium in two markets Market for foreign-currency exchange Supply: net capital outflow Demand: net exports Equilibrium real exchange rate, E Equilibrium real interest rate, r Price of goods and services in the present Relative to goods and services in the future Price of domestic goods and services Relative to foreign goods and services

17 Equilibrium in the Open Economy
Simultaneous equilibrium in two markets E and r - adjust simultaneously To balance supply and demand In both markets Loanable funds Foreign-currency exchange Determine National saving Domestic investment Net capital outflow Net exports

18 The real equilibrium in an open economy
4 The real equilibrium in an open economy Quantity of Loanable Funds (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Net capital outflow (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Supply Net capital outflow, NCO Demand r1 r1 Real Exchange Rate Supply In panel (a), the supply and demand for loanable funds determine the real interest rate. In panel (b), the interest rate determines net capital outflow, which provides the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange. In panel (c), the supply and demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange determine the real exchange rate. Demand E1 Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

19 How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy
Government budget deficits Negative public saving Reduces national saving Reduces supply of loanable funds Increase in interest rate Reduces net capital outflow Crowd-out domestic investment Decrease in supply of foreign-currency exchange Exchange rate appreciates Net exports fall Push the trade balance toward deficit

20 The effects of a government budget deficit
5 The effects of a government budget deficit Quantity of Loanable Funds (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Net capital outflow (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate 1. A budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds . . . Real Interest Rate NCO S2 S1 which in turn reduces net capital outflow. r2 B Demand r2 r1 A r1 which increases the real interest rate . . . When the government runs a budget deficit, it reduces the supply of loanable funds from S1 to S2 in panel (a). The interest rate rises from r1 to r2 to balance the supply and demand for loanable funds. In panel (b), the higher interest rate reduces net capital outflow. Reduced net capital outflow, in turn, reduces the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange from S1 to S2 in panel (c). This fall in the supply of dollars causes the real exchange rate to appreciate from E1 to E2. The appreciation of the exchange rate pushes the trade balance toward deficit. Real Exchange Rate 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency . . . S2 S1 Demand E2 Which causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. E1 Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

21 How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy
Trade policy Government policy Directly influences the quantity of goods and services That a country imports or exports Tariff Tax on imports Import quota Limit on quantity of imports

22 How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy
Trade policy Macroeconomic impact of trade policy Decrease imports Increase in net exports Increase in demand for foreign-currency exchange Real exchange rate appreciates Discourage exports No change in real interest rate No change in net capital outflow No change in net exports

23 The effects of an import quota
6 The effects of an import quota Quantity of Loanable Funds (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Net capital outflow (b) Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Supply NCO 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. Demand r1 r1 Real Exchange Rate When the U.S. government imposes a quota on the import of Japanese cars, nothing happens in the market for loanable funds in panel (a) or to net capital outflow in panel (b). The only effect is a rise in net exports (exports minus imports) for any given real exchange rate. As a result, the demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange rises, as shown by the shift from D1 to D2 in panel (c). This increase in the demand for dollars causes the value of the dollar to appreciate from E1 to E2. This appreciation of the dollar tends to reduce net exports, offsetting the direct effect of the import quota on the trade balance. Supply And causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. D2 E2 D1 E1 1. An import quota increases the demand for dollars . . . Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

24 How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy
Trade policy Macroeconomic impact of trade policy Trade policies do not affect the U.S. trade balance NX = NCO = S – I Trade policies affect specific Firms Industries Countries

25 How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy
Political instability and capital flight Political instability Leads to capital flight Capital flight Large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country

26 How Policies & Events Affect an Open Economy
Mexico - capital flight affects both markets Investors Sell Mexican assets & Buy U.S. assets Net-capital-outflow curve – increases Supply of pesos in the market for foreign-currency exchange – increases Demand curve in the market for loanable funds – increases Interest rate – increases The peso – depreciates

27 The effects of capital flight
7 The effects of capital flight Quantity of Loanable Funds (a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico Net capital outflow (b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow Real Interest Rate Which increases the interest rate. Real Interest Rate D2 NCO2 1. An increase in net capital outflow . . . NCO1 D1 Supply r2 r2 r1 r1 increases the demand for loanable funds . . . If people decide that Mexico is a risky place to keep their savings, they will move their capital to safer havens such as the U.S., resulting in an increase in Mexican net capital outflow. The demand for loanable funds in Mexico rises from D1 to D2, as shown in panel (a), and this drives up the Mexican real interest rate from r1 to r2. Because net capital outflow is higher for any interest rate, that curve also shifts to the right from NCO1 to NCO2 in panel (b). At the same time, in the market for foreign-currency exchange, the supply of pesos rises from S1 to S2, as shown in panel (c). This increase in the supply of pesos causes the peso to depreciate from E1 to E2, so the peso becomes less valuable compared to other currencies. Real Exchange Rate 4. At the same time, the increase in net capital outflow increases the supply of pesos . . . S1 S2 Demand E1 which causes the peso to depreciate E2 Quantity of Pesos (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange

28 Capital flows from China
Nation that experiences capital flight Outflow of capital Its currency weaken in foreign exchange markets Depreciation Increases the nation’s net exports Nation that experiences inflow of capital Its currency strengthen Appreciation Pushes its trade balance toward deficit

29 Capital flows from China
A nation’s government – policy: Encourages capital to flow to another country By making foreign investments itself Effect? Nation encouraging capital outflows Weaker currency Trade surplus For the recipient of capital flows Stronger currency Trade deficit

30 Capital flows from China
Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China China – tried to depress its currency (renminbi) in foreign exchange markets Promote its export industries Accumulate foreign assets Including U.S. government bonds In 2007: $1.5 trillion Chinese goods - less expensive Contributes to the U.S. trade deficit Hurts American producers who make products that compete with imports from China

31 Capital flows from China
Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China U.S. government Encouraged China to stop influencing the exchange value of its currency Impact of the Chinese policy on the U.S. economy American consumers of Chinese imports Benefit from lower prices Inflow of capital from China Lowers U.S. interest rates Increases investment in the U.S. economy Chinese government - financing U.S. economic growth

32 Capital flows from China
Chinese policy of investing in U.S. economy Creates winners and losers among Americans Net impact on U.S. economy - probably small Motives behind the policy China - wants to accumulate a reserve of foreign assets National “rainy-day fund” Misguided policy


Download ppt "A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google