1. N ational T ransfer A ccounts National Transfer Accounts: A Quick Overview Andrew Mason University of Hawaii – Manoa East-West Center

2. N ational T ransfer A ccounts Motivation ► Three features of the economy  Economic lifecycle  Population age structure  Systems for shifting resources across age ► Saving ► Public transfer programs ► Familial Support systems ► Interaction influences economic performance and generational equity ► Implications for economic and population policy

3. N ational T ransfer A ccounts ► Objective:  Develop and apply a comprehensive system of accounts that measures economic flows across age groups in a manner consistent with the System of National Accounts. ► Conceptual foundation:  Lee (1994) but also Samuelson (1958), Diamond (1965), and Willis (1988). ► Organization:  Collaboration between EWC/UH and UC-Berkeley. Core funding from NIA. Sub-projects supported by UNFPA, IDRC, MacArthur Foundation and others. ► Website: www.ntaccounts.org

4. N ational T ransfer A ccounts The Economic Lifecycle (Per Capita) Four Developing Economics Consumption Labor Income Note: Based on estimates for Costa Rica, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Thailand.

5. N ational T ransfer A ccounts Aggregate Economist Lifecycle: Old versus Young Population Young PopulationOld Population LC demand for wealth is negligible LC demand for wealth is large Yl C C Note: Uses per capita consumption profiles shown above. Large downward transfers Small downward transfers

6. N ational T ransfer A ccounts What determines the lifecycle demand for capital (continued)? ► Support system for the elderly  Public transfers  Familial transfers  Lifecycle saving ► Public and familial transfers may crowd out lifecycle saving

7. N ational T ransfer A ccounts Meeting the lifecycle deficit of the elderly

8. N ational T ransfer A ccounts Familial transfers equally important in Thailand, Korea, and Taiwan (36-40%). Net familial transfers near zero in US, CR, and J. Large public transfers in CR and J. More reliance on assets in CR & US. Net public transfers to elderly are zero in Thailand; about 25% in Taiwan and Korea.

9. N ational T ransfer A ccounts 65-year-olds 67% assets, 2% public, 32% private 85-year-olds 23% assets, 39% public, 38% private

10. N ational T ransfer A ccounts Asset-based reallocations and public transfers have increased over time; familial transfers have declined precipitously. NHI began in 1995; net public transfers increased.

11. N ational T ransfer A ccounts Website ► Manage data ► Document methods and research ► Manage project activities ► Disseminate (and recruit) www.ntaccounts.org

12. N ational T ransfer A ccounts Thank you