1. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Ageing Research - some questions Richard Murray, Executive Director, Fiscal and Corporate, Commonwealth Treasury

2. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Fiscal Pressure on Budget Balance -6 -4 -2 0 2 2002-032005-062008-092011-122014-152017-182020-212023-242026-272029-302032-332035-362038-392041-42 -6 -4 -2 0 2 Per cent of GDP

3. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Major components of budget cost Health Aged care +4¼% GDP +1 GDP + ½% GDP -½% GDP Drivers Demography Average cost of programmes Impacts in 40 years Payments to individuals Education etc Total+5¼% GDP Fiscal adjustment

4. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Policy choices Faster GDP growth Lower cost budget programmesBudget balance falls and debt increases 1 Tax:GDP ratio increases 2 Policy response 3 Pass the problem to future generations

5. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Components of GDP growth Productivity Participation Population Employment (hours) GDP Total population Share of population 15+ Participation rate Unemployment rate Average hours worked Capital deepening Multifactor productivity

6. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Skills

7. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Skills

8. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Skills

9. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Skills

10. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Skills & education School retention rates? Foundation skills and lifelong learning? Remedial action for increasing skill levels of adults of working age? Female labour supply and demand for part time work? Future for unskilled males/females in a changing economy?

11. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Health What type of policy interventions generate the greatest improvement in health outcomes? What is the nature of the link between good health and specific aspects of social and economic participation, such as labour force participation? How can we maximise the benefits delivered by the subsidised PBS?

12. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY Retirement Decision What is the impact of dependent children? Will less physically demanding work lead to longer working lives? What influence does the level of home ownership have on the retirement decision? Workplace flexibility and the retirement decision? Relationship between current income, expected income in retirement and age of retirement?

13. D EPARTMENT OF THE T REASURY End