1. Australian Economic Outlook

2. Real GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury. 2

3. Revisions to IMF growth forecasts Note: Evolution of IMF forecasts for world growth (calendar year). Source: IMF WEO. 3

4. China and MTP growth contributions Note: MTP growth aggregated using Australia’s export shares. Source: ABS cat. no. 5368.0, IMF October 2014 World Economic Outlook and Treasury. 4 -4 0 4 8 0 4 8 19931995199719992001200320052007200920112013 Percentagepoints China'scontribution to MTP growth Ex-China contribution to MTP growth Percentagepoints MTP growth

5. Mining investment Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0, 5206.0 and Treasury. 5

6. Iron ore Export volumesSpot price 6 Note: Commercial-in-confidence Source: ABS cat. no. 5302.0, Platts and Treasury.

7. Terms of trade 7 Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.

8. Non-resources GDP growth Contributions to real GDP growth Note: Assumes that mining investment has an import share of 50 per cent. Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and 5302.0, BREE and Treasury. 8 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 2012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18 Percentage points Net resources investmentResources exports Projections Forecasts Projections Resources

9. Housing market indicators Building approvals Source: ABS cat. no. 8731.0 and 5609.0. Housing finance 9

10. Source: ABS 8501.0, Westpac-Melbourne Institute and ANZ-Roy Morgan. Retail trade and consumer confidence Retail tradeConfidence measures 10

11. Non-mining investment indicators Note: Non-mining business conditions and confidence reflects the weights of non-mining sectors in the NAB survey. This is not necessarily the same as non-mining sectors share of GVA. Source: NAB Monthly Business Survey. Note: Estimates of CAPEX have been adjusted using long run realisation ratios. Source: ABS cat. no. 5625.0 Conditions and confidence CAPEX 11

12. Labour market Source: ABS cat. no. 6202.0 and 6345.0. 12

13. Exchange rate Source: RBA 13

14. Short term visitor arrivals Note :Trend data Source: ABS Cat. no. 3401.0 14

15. Estimated size of middle class by region Source: 'Kharas, H. and Gertz, G. (2010) The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East and Centennial Group projections (2011) 15

16. Other slides

17. World outbound tourism (Resident departures by country of origin) Note: Figures for China include travel to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. Source: United Nations World Tourism Organisation 17

18. Projections of the global middle class by region Source: Kharas, H and Gertz G, 2010, ‘The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East’ in C Li (ed), China’s Emerging Middle Class: Beyond Economic Transformation, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press. 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 200920202030 North AmericaEuropeAsia PacificCentral and South AmericaAfrica and Middle East Billions (persons) 18

19. Top five merchandise exports to China 20062013 Source: DFAT. 19

20. Resource investment – major projects Note: Treasury’s major resources projects profile is the sum of spending on existing and planned resources projects greater than $2 billion, weighted by their probability of going ahead. Source: Treasury. 20

21. Nominal GDP forecasts Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury. 21

22. Market inflation expectations 22 Note: Market inflation expectations are derived from inflation swaps. Expectations are not available for China. Source: Bloomberg

23. Inflation Source: ABS. cat. no. 6401.0. 23

24. National income growth 24 Source: ABS Cat. No. 5206.0.

25. Housing market indicators Source: RP Data CoreLogic. Prices growthCapital cities 25

26. Wages by industry Source: ABS Cat. no. 6345.0 and Treasury. 26

27. Source: ABS cat. no. 6345.0 and Treasury. Wages growth by mining/non-mining 27