1. NJ Treasury Economic Outlook Conference November 20, 2013 Alexander Heil, PhD Chief Economist Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority of New York & New Jersey The opinions expressed in this presentation reflect the views of the author and not necessarily those of the Port Authority of NY & NJ.

2. Presentation Content Slide 2 Port Authority Economic Region County-level Recession Experience Regional County & Industry Projections Based on Q3 2013 Baseline Forecast Q&A

3. 18-County Port Authority Region Slide 3

4. Employment Recoveries in NY & NJ Counties Slide 4 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

5. County Level Recession Experience 2009 Q1 2009Q22009Q32009Q42010Q12010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q2 2013 Q3 2013Q4 Port Authority Area 100 99 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 New York City 100 99 9899100 101102 103 104 105 106 107 Bergen County 100 999897 9897 98 99 100 Essex County 100 9998 97 96 97 98 Hudson County 100 99 98 9798 99 100 101 102 Middlesex County 100 9998 979897 98 99100 101102 Monmouth County 100 99 98 979897 9899 100 Morris County 100 9997 96 97989798 99 100 Passaic County 100 99 100 101100 101 100 101 102103 104 Somerset County 100 9998 97 9899 100101 102103 104 Union County 100 99 10099 98 99 100 101 102 Slide 5 TODAY Q1/2009 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

6. PA Region Employment by Sector Slide 6 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

7. NJ Counties Employment by Sector Slide 7 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

8. County-level Employment Projections Slide 8 2013Q32014Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q42019Q42020Q4 Port Authority Area100102104105106107 108 New York City100102104106107108109 Bergen County100101103 104 105 Essex County100101102 103 102 Hudson County100101103104105 106 Middlesex County100101103104105 106 Monmouth County100102104105106107108 Morris County100102103105106 107 Passaic County100102104105106107108 Somerset County100101103104105106 Union County100101103104105 106 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

9. Industrial Sector Forecast Slide 9 2013Q32014Q42015Q42016Q42017Q42018Q42019Q42020Q4 Total100101103104105 106 Construction100103105107108109110 Manufacturing10099 9897 96 Wholesale trade100102104 105 104 Retail trade100101102103104 103 Transportation, warehousing & utilities100 101 100 Information100102103104 Finance and insurance100101102103 102 Real estate and rental and leasing100102104105106107 108 Professional, scientific, and technical services100102104106107 108 Management of companies and enterprises100104106108110112113115 Administrative and waste services100 102104 Educational services100102104105106107 Health care and social assistance100102103104105106107108 Arts, entertainment, and recreation100104108113117121125129 Accommodation and food services100103106108109110111112 Other services, except public administration100102104106107108109 Federal government1009899100 101102 State and local government100101 102103104105106 Office using employment100101103105 106 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

10. Forecast Summary [as of Oct 2013] 2013201420152016 US Real GDP [%]1.52.93.03.1 Unempl [%]7.57.26.55.9 10-Year Treasury2.32.73.13.6 PA Real GRP3.03.22.82.9 9 NJ Counties GRP2.93.02.82.9 China Real GDP [%]7.277.47.6 Eurozone Real GDP [%]-0.60.91.51.6 World Real GDP [%]22.83.33.4 Slide 10 Source: Oxford Economics Global Macro Model run by PA Economics Unit

11. Economic Outlook – November 2013 Any Questions? Alexander Heil, PhD Chief Economist Planning & Regional Development Department The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey 233 Park Avenue South, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10003 aheil@panynj.gov Slide 11