0. The Solar Energy Technologies Office Getting to Ubiquitous Solar
Minh Le, Director
Solar Energy Technologies Office

1. SunShot Price SunShot Initiative SunShot Initiative
5 - 6¢/kwh without subsidy
A 75% cost reduction by the end of the decade
The SunShot Initiative is a collaborative national effort to reduce the total cost of solar by 75% so it can be cost-competitive with other energy sources by DOE supports several programs that work toward this aggressive goal along the entire cost spectrum. Among these, the Incubator program is unique because it addresses all of the targeted reduction areas needed to achieve cost parity.

2. If moonshot was a race away from our planet, SunShot, in a way, is a race to save our planet.
-Ali Zaidi, Domestic Policy Council

3. 60% progress towards 2020 objectives
SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020
2010
2013
2020
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
60% progress towards
2020 objectives

4. SunShot Utility Scale Progress Q42013
Sources: Margolis , R., et al. (2012). "SunShot Vision Study." DOE/GO Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, pp Accessed 2013: Goodrich, A; James, T; and Woodhouse, M. “Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic System Prices in the United States: Current Drivers and Cost Reduction Opportunities.” NREL Technical Report No. TP-6A , Available Online at: . ; NREL internal (PV system cost) analysis (September 2013).

5. PV Module Prices Reaching $.50/W could take until 2030 for Si modules*
In 2010, PV modules were selling between $1.70/W to $1.90/W. The industry was more interested in making money in the near term, profits were strong. Subsidies were strong around the world. Secretary Chu challenged the DOE to look beyond subsidies, and envision a world where renewable energy can compete against conventional forms of energy generation without subsidies. For solar, PV modules would need to sell at around $0.50/W.
If you look at a straight trendline on the experience curve, it would take until 2030 to reach $0.50/W modules. Our challenge was to help the industry achieve that in half the time that was expected. Our goals were twice as aggressive as industry was.
In the past couple of years, excess manufacturing supply was built up. PV modules are now selling below $0.80/W, less than half the prices just 2 years ago. A decades worth of cost reduction happened overnight. Without the vision of SunShot to enable our industry to develop technological solutions that are more aggressive than their roadmaps, our industry would be even more unprepared for these challenging times.
Reaching $.50/W could take until 2030 for Si modules*

6. 15 GW of solar 4.75 GW PV in 2013 10x growth rate from 2009
SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020
2010
2013
2020
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
15 GW of solar
4.75 GW PV in 2013
10x growth rate from 2009

7. Jobs: 143,000 SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010 2013
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
Jobs: 143,000

8. Sunshot incubator $18 Private for every $1 Public
SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020
2010
2013
2020
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
Sunshot incubator
$18 Private for
every $1 Public

9. SOFT COSTS SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010 2013
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
SOFT COSTS

10. GRID INTEGRATION SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010
2013
2020
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
GRID INTEGRATION

11. CSP STORAGE s-CO2 SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020 2010
2013
2020
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
CSP STORAGE
s-CO2

12. MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVENESS
SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020
2010
2013
2020
MAJOR PROGRESS
PRIORITY AREAS
MANUFACTURING
COMPETITIVENESS

13. Erosion of Domestic PV cell and Module Manufacturing
42% 2%

14. Manufacturing
“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’ manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow's emerging industry.”
Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel
“The cost of creating jobs grew from a few thousand dollars per position to a hundred thousand today”
“Job-centric” leadership and incentives are needed to expand U.S. domestic employment again

15. The SunShot Portfolio Balance of Systems Systems Integration CSP R&D
PV R&D
Tech to Market
CSP R&D
Systems Integration
Balance of Systems

16. Concentrating Solar Power Dr. Ranga Pitchumani
Focus areas:
Solar Field
Receiver
Thermal fluid/storage
Power Block
Has led to commercialization of the largest CSP plants in the world

17. 2010 & 2013 CSP Baselines and SunShot Goal
8 ¢/kWh reduction in LCOE (38%) from 2010 to 2013
An additional 7 ¢/kWh (54%) LCOE reduction still necessary to achieve SunShot goals
Note: assumes no ITC. $2013 converted to $2010 using the “Chemical Engineering Plant Cost Index.“

18. Photovoltaics R&D Dr. Rebecca Jones-Albertus
Focus areas:
New types of materials and device approaches that enable higher PV performance, greater reliability and reduced cost
Translational research and development to bridge gaps in applied research with those in device and materials development and manufacturing environment
Has resulted in US leadership in PV R&D
Over 50% of the world record solar cell efficiencies have been supported by DOE funded researchers
Supported the technology that is the foundation many companies in the industry such as First Solar, SunPower, Suniva

19. World Record Cell Efficiencies

20. Innovations in Manufacturing R&D (Tech to Market) Dr. Lidija Sekaric
Focus areas:
Competitiveness Analysis
Translating technology from the laboratory to the marketplace
Manufacturing R&D to enable US companies to compete globally
Resulted in tremendous returns on US tax dollars (>$1.7B)
Long-Run U.S. Manufacturing Opportunities

21. SolarMAT: Manufacturing and Supply Chain Technology R&D
High Impact Technologies
Technologies which provide cost reductions and performance improvements with broad application across the industry
Strengthen the domestic PV industry
Technologies developed under this program can be adopted directly into current manufacturing processes

22. Systems Integration R&D Dr. Ranga Pitchumani

23. Field Validation of PV Systems
Maybe replace with slide on SEGIS AC
Field Validation of PV Systems
High altitude, temperate climate
Moderate to high precipitation; harsh winter conditions, low DNI
Subtropical; high DNI; high temperatures
Hot, humid, (subtropical conditions);
moderate DNI
Hot and arid
high DNI.

24. Today’s Power System … Two Way Power Flow
Fast forward to tomorrow’s power system and you see a world that is more distributed, more digital, and more decentralized. This results from a combination of trends:
- Retirement of older coal plants
- New renewables to meet state RPS
- Investments in energy efficiency and demand response
- Low cost natural gas
There are several key technology challenges that will need to be addressed *with innovation* to make this happen.
And the pace of innovation will dictate what the ultimate cost to society will be of making this transition to the power system of the future.
Let’s start on the right-hand side – with the consumer – and talk about some of those innovations.
Generation-Transmission
Substation
Distribution System
Source: NREL-Coddington modified Alvin R.

25. Developing technology to better integrate solar with the grid

26. Today’s Power System … Two Way Power Flow
Fast forward to tomorrow’s power system and you see a world that is more distributed, more digital, and more decentralized. This results from a combination of trends:
- Retirement of older coal plants
- New renewables to meet state RPS
- Investments in energy efficiency and demand response
- Low cost natural gas
There are several key technology challenges that will need to be addressed *with innovation* to make this happen.
And the pace of innovation will dictate what the ultimate cost to society will be of making this transition to the power system of the future.
Let’s start on the right-hand side – with the consumer – and talk about some of those innovations.
Generation-Transmission
Substation
Distribution System
Source: NREL-Coddington modified Alvin R.

27. PV System Pathway to SunShot
Residential

28. This isn’t necessarily a new problem, mainly just a different way of looking at the same problem
While we weren’t explicitly focused on “soft costs” back in the day, by which I mean 2011, we were trying to “transform markets” through programs like Solar America Cities
These programs were very successful at kickstarting local and regional solar markets.
We learned quite a bit about what works in opening up new solar marketsm piloted projects like Solarize in Portland, made great advances in city/state policy reforms in places like Utah, where their “Freeing the Grid” net metering score went from an F to an A.
But there were a few problems:
We didn’t have an effective vehicle for identifying the best approaches to what we called “market transformation” back in the day and then scaling those up
We weren’t doing a great job of systematically measuring the impact of our local/state interventions in terms of assessing the maturity of the solar markets, especially with regards to the cost of solar

29. Unlike physics, where we can fundamentally figure out the upper limit for the efficiency of solar cells, there is no such limit to bureaucracy

30. Rooftop Solar Challenge

31. Well, let's say you can shave 10 seconds off of the boot time
Well, let's say you can shave 10 seconds off of the boot time. Multiply that by five million users and that’s 50 million seconds, every single day. Over a year, that's probably dozens of lifetimes. So if you make it boot ten seconds faster, you've saved a dozen lives. That's really worth it, don't you think?

32. 22 Rooftop Solar Challenge Teams Cut red tape by 1 week
600 MW installed
40,000 installations
40,000 weeks of red tape = 768 Years of red tape

33. Minh Le Director Solar Energy Technologies Office SunShot Initiative minh.le@ee.doe.gov