1. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 1 Énergies fossiles et énergies renouvelables: évolution du système énergétique Philippe A. Tanguy Chaire Total École Polytechnique de Montréal 6e Journée de la recherche de Polytechnique Changements climatiques et énergie 24 mai 2007

2. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 2 3 Basic Ideas Energy system: now and its likely evolution Fossile energies and CO2 capture: conventional vs. non-conventional resources Renewable energies and the contribution of biomass

3. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 3 Energy Demand Fundamentals Growth of World Population (WEC, 2006) ExxonMobil (2005)

4. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 4 Hydropower Oil & Gas Coal Uranium Centralized power network Wind Solar Biomass GHG, SO2 NOX, dust Nuclear waste

5. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 5 Hydrocarbon Reserves 172 187 North America Oil : 1 400 Gboe Gas : 1 200 Gboe 121 58 Latin America 27 53 Europe 155 102 Africa 702 368 Middle East 183 322 CIS 56 102 Asia Total SA (2004)

6. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 6 Natural and Anthropogenic Emissions Impact on Environment Tett et al. (1999) IGSM simulations (MIT, 2004): [CO 2 ] = 550 ppm (stabilised) => +1,5 o C w.r.t 1990 Atmospheric concentration CO 2 (ppm) 360 340 320 300 280 260 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)

7. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 7 Transportation Buildings Industry Sequestration of CO 2 Renewable Biomass Solar Geothermal Hydropower Ocean Wind Oil and Gas Coal Uranium Storage of electricity Electrical network Non- conventional hydrocarbons

8. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 8 Coal Reserves 1,000 – 1,500 GT available = 200 years based on 2004 consumption data But consumption multiplied by 2 between 2003 and 2030 (MIT, 2007) Source: DOE (2006) Source: GTI

9. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 9 Coal Technologies Ultra-critical combustion Oxy-combustion and chemical looping Gazification (IGCC)

10. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 10 Available Hydrocarbon Resources Non-renewable –Oil Heavy and extra-heavy Tar sands Oil shales – Gas Tight gas, gas shales and Coal Bed Methane Methane hydrates Renewable –Biomass

11. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 11 Extra-Heavy Oil and Tar Sands Oil in place: 1200-1700 Gbls Potential for recovery:120 Gbls Currently re-evaluated: 235 Gbls? (larger than Saudi Arabia) (source PDVSA & AO International) Bitumen in place: 1700 Gbls Potential for recovery: 174 Gbls (souce AEUB, 2005)

12. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 12 Mining vs SAGD Methods Source: SyncrudeSource: Total SAGD = Steam-Assisted gravity drainage + Transportation and Upgrading of Bitumen

13. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 13 Oil Shales Sedimentary rock containing organic material called kerogen (in place: 2900 Gboe, incl. 1500 Gboe in the USA) Used for: –Power generation by combustion (heat, steam) –Feedstock for refineries and chemical products (extraction of shale oil) Oil potential: 100 kg/t of shales Already a long history

14. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 14 Oil Shale Upgrading Options R&D programs in the USA (Shell) and Brasil (Petrobras) - Mining and surface retorting vs in-situ conversion Estonia power generation: 2.7 GW (combustion) - Other processes: SC extraction, RF and microwave heating - Groundwater contamination and emissions - Management of residues and tailings Rand Corp. (2005)

15. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 15 Sequestration of CO 2 Issues to consider Where to capture - chimney stack - process Possibility of concentration Separation technology Storage Costs - impact on price of energy - processing of liquid waste Capture Compression Transportation Storage

16. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 16 A Range of Renewable Energies Solar Thermodynamics and photovoltaics WIND SUN OCEAN BIOMASS

17. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 17 Biorefinery Concept Source: NREL Biomass sources? - Energy crops - Co-products - Cellulosic waste 4 options 1)Chemistry of fat (transesterification) 2)Biochemical conversion (enzymatic hydrolysis, microbial fermentation) 3)Thermochemical conversion (pyrolysis, gasification, combustion) 4)Photobiological conversion (photosynthesis with bacteria or algae) BTL

18. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 18 New Holistic Vision Cargill (2005)

19. Polytechnique 2007 – slide 19 “Non-conventional” oil is not free… Adapted from Skinner (2005) Fuel Production – Estimated CAPEX ($000/bbl/d)

20. IACCE Interamerican Confederation of Chemical Engineers ENERGYGREEN PROCESSINGNEW MATERIALS THE CURRICULUM BIOTECHNOLOGY Welcome to the World Congress of Chemical Engineering Montréal, August 2009