Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byMoshe Minter Modified over 9 years ago
1
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.
2
Economic Data Europe Update Health Care Decision Offshore Drilling Market Direction
6
March Jobs Report Airtime: Fri. April. 6 2012 | 8:30 AM ET
8
Spain will likely need a bailout in the future (EU’s 4 th largest economy) Not doing much debt restructuring 2012, very bad year for Spain Estimated 3% contraction in GDP this year (recession) Large contraction in 2013 also likely
9
Greek and French Elections in April Austerity done by Greek Gov’t to get bailed out, highly unpopular among socialist public Could cause market volatility
11
Almost a decade to fully implement Recently brought to Supreme Court Constitutionality of requiring health insurance Can the law stand with this aspect Decision will be in June/July Affect many people and business
12
Health Insurers – UNH, WLP, AET Millions of new customers required by law Drug/Biotech Companies – TEVA, PFE More potential users and brand name protection Medical Researchers - ABT Major funding from new law
13
Hospitals – DYII, HMA Medicare and default reimbursement cuts Radiologists - RDNT Results based compensation now Tanning Salons 10% excise tax
15
Easy oil has been found In future, off-shore drilling demand will increase Great for oil services and off-shore drillers
17
Currently, largest is Tupi’s 8 billion barrel Libra - estimated around 15 billion barrels of oil If correct, doubles Brazil’s known oil reserves Varies from 3.7-15B barrels, most likely 7.9 – National Petroleum Agency Outgoing Brazilian President: Oil revenues used to eradicate poverty and invest in education/technology
18
May invest about $400 billion through 2020 to develop crude discoveries In September 2011, raised $70 billion to develop new fields – world’s largest public share offering Developing Tupi field and may take minimum stake of 30% in Libra
19
BULLS Deepwater market is positioned to expand Deepwater fleet is much larger than next competitor Net asset value of fleet is $19.6B or $56/share BEARS Macondo-related expenses up to more than $3B Ongoing tax disputes in US, Brazil, and Norway Risks ceding share to competition with more active under construction programs for rigs
20
BULLS Deepwater discoveries show demand for DO’s rigs for years Dividend policy disposes of excess cash and check on management team Net Asset Value of Diamond’s fleet is $9.3B or $67/share BEARS Has a smaller fleet and less experience with ultra- deepwater rigs Has industries oldest fleet, avg. age of almost 30 years Decline in day rates can have a substantial impact
21
BULLS Strong fiscal position provides opportunity to pursue distressed assets Increasing production rates and adding to reserves Exploration in California will probably lead to future low-cost production BEARS Small player in a highly competitive global industry with bigger players Majority of resources are in declining US fields Slow permitting and facility issues have slowed development in California
22
BULLS Owns one of the newest and most advances deepwater fleets Opportunistic investing talents have generated major gains for shareholders Net asset value of fleet around $6.5B or $14/share BEARS Seahawk holdings did not work out very well – declared bankruptcy Leveraged balance sheet could topple due to deepwater drilling downturn Orders deepwater rigs without a contract in place
23
BULLS New rigs are obtaining high day rates – highest AT returns Acquired Pride for new rigs in 2011 Net asset value of fleet about $12.3B or $54/share BEARS Decline in day rates can have a substantial impact 50% jackup spending controlled by 10 companies, decrease in spending could be significant 70+ jackups under construction, most do not have a contract
24
Will Fed Policy Lift Stocks? Airtime: Thurs. April. 5 2012 | 6:00 PM ET
25
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.
Similar presentations
© 2024 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.