1. INPE Activities on Seasonal Climate Predictions Paulo Nobre INPE-CCST-CPTEC WGSIP-12, Miami, 12-14 January 2009

2. WGSIP-12 MIAMI Consensus Forecast Seasonal Climate Prediction at CPTEC Models Suite OBJECTIVEENSEMBLEFORECAST SST FORECASTS

3. WGSIP-12 MIAMI seasonal prediction operational runs Global Atmospheric GCMGlobal Atmospheric GCM –KUO, RAS, GRELL, DERF –SST: NCEP CFS & CPTEC CCA FCST, prescribed SSTA –120 Members per month –4 months forecast Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCMGlobal Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM –T062L28, RAS atmos, ¼ degree, L20, 40S-40N ocean –10 Members per month –7 months forecast Regional Atmospheric Eta ModelRegional Atmospheric Eta Model –40 Km grid L38 over South America –AGCM T062L28, Kuo, LBC –5 members per month –4 months forecast DERF – Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCMDERF – Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM –T126L28, RAS atmos, ¼ degree, L20, 65S-65N ocean –2 members per day –30 days forecast

4. WGSIP-12 MIAMI Anomaly Correlation Geopot. Hight over South America

5. WGSIP-12 MIAMI Seasonal Climate Prediction at INPE-CPTEC Real-time monthly meetings encompassing institutions from Brasil, Argentina, and Peru –http://visitview.cptec.inpe.br/clima/1108/poia.html –Ensemble of AGCM and CGCM runs done at CPTEC as well as those done at IRI –Dynamical downscaling using RCMs nested at CPTEC and ECHAM4.5 AGCM outputs –Consensus precipitation forecast in terciles: Above, Normal, Below –Consensus temperature forecast Above/Below

6. WGSIP-12 MIAMI OGCM Modular Ocean Model (MOM3)‏ Global Tropics (40S – 40N)‏ 1/4 x 1/4 degree deep tropics of the Atlantic Ocean Pacanowski and Philander vertical mixing Rigid lid approximation CGCM: (daily, fully coupled) to CPTEC AGCM, T062L28, RAS, SSiB. Atmos IC: NCEP Ocean IC: MOM3 forced runs, no Ocean Data Assimilation 10 members, 20 years of 8 month forecast runs for the 12 calendar month for both AGCM and CGCM, totaling 3200 years of integration at INPE's NEC-SX6. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere predictability experiment

7. WGSIP-12 MIAMI OGCM Grid High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic

8. WGSIP-12 MIAMI

10. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play DJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)‏ IncreasedCoupledModelForecastSkill

11. WGSIP-12 MIAMI Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at play DJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)‏ DecreasedCoupledModelForecastSkill

12. WGSIP-12 MIAMI OI-SST / NCEP Reanalysis OGCM Climatology CGCM Climatology Eastern Oceans’ Coupled O-A Interactions

13. WGSIP-12 MIAMI CGCM SWRad systematic errors 8S 30W0N 0E

14. WGSIP-12 MIAMI INPE's CGCM Evolution Version 1.1: –COLA AGCM, RAS, SIB, T042L18, –anomaly coupling to MOM2 at 1/3 degree deep global tropics, 40S-40N, L20, rigid lid. Version 1.2: –CPTEC/COLA AGCM, RAS, SSiB, T062L28, –fully coupled to MOM3, daily coupling, at ¼ degree deep global tropics, 40S-40N, L20, rigid lid. Version 2.0: –CPTEC AGCM 2.0, Kuo/RAS/Grell, SsiB/IBIS, T213L64 –fully coupled to MOM4, 3 hourly coupling, at 1/8 degree deep tropics, global, L50, free surface, sea ice & biogeochemistry –GFDL's FMS coupler

15. WGSIP-12 MIAMI MOM 4’s FMS COUPLER Flux Ocean to Ice Sfc Boundary Layer Update Ice Model up Update Land Model Flux down from Atmos Atmos Model Run Update Atmos Model up Flux up to Atmos Update Ice Model Atmos Loop Atmos Loop End Avg psurf Atmos-2-Ice SST-2-Atmos Update Land Model Flux Ice to Ocean Update Ice Model down Flux Land to Ice Ocean Loop Ocean Loop End Update Ocean Model Coupled Loop Coupler End Coupler Init Slow Loop Fast Fast

16. WGSIP-12 MIAMI INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, 6 hourly coupling 30 days avrg spinup SST

17. WGSIP-12 MIAMI INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, 6 hourly coupling 30 days avrg spinup Precip

18. WGSIP-12 MIAMI INPE's CCST Center of Earth System Science Create the Brazilian Model of the Climate System Produce and disseminate operational climate predictions on time scales of years to decades Generate the Brazilian contribution to IPCC AR5 (in cooperation with Hadley Centre and NCAR)‏ Graduate program on Earth Sciences