1. LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS. PART I: MEXICO Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

2. LOCATION

3. NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE MEXICO’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS FLOODS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDES ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE

4. MEXICO CITY: MEXICO’S MEGACITY CAPITOL

5. MEXICO’SCOMMUNITIESMEXICO’SCOMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS NATURAL HAZARDS BLDG. INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

6. POLICY ADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE NSTURAL HAZARDS EXPECTED LOSS

7. HURRICANES MEXICO IS AT RISK FROM HURRICANES FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN, AND GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC

8. WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE HURRICANES UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS STORM SURGE IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN SITING PROBLEMS FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

9. HURRICANE DEAN THE FIRST NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF 2007 CAUSED DEVASTATION FROM CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TO MEXICO A CATEGORY 2-3 STORM ON 17 AUGUST 2007 A CATEGORY 4 STORM ON 18 AUGUST 2007 A CATEGORY 5 STORM ON 20 AUGUST

10. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL HURICANES WITHOUT ADEQUATE PROTECTION, HIGH VELOCITY WIND WILL LIFT THE ROOF OFF OF MANY BUILDINGS.

11. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL HURRICANES PROTECTION MEANS THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH VELOCITY WIND AND PLAN IN ADVANCE.

12. COORDINATED PLANNING BY USA, MEXICO, AND CANADA President Bush met with the leaders of Mexico and Canada on Monday, August 20 th to continue coordinated planning of mutual assistance before the arrival of Hurricane Dean.

13. PEMEX OIL AND GAS PLATFORM IN GULF OF MEXICO

14. LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL HURRICANES. DISASTER- INTELLIGENT COMMUNITIES USE TIMELY EARLY WARNING BASED ON CRITICAL INFORM- ATION TO IMPROVE THE ODDS FOR SURVIVAL.

15. PATH OF DEAN: 20-21 AUGUST 2007

16. ADVANCE PREPARTIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO The Gulf has 4,000 multi-million dollar oil and gas platforms and facilities that are at risk from hurricane Dean’s strong winds and high waves. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 flooded oil refineries, toppled oil rigs, and cut pipelines.

17. ADVANCE PREPARTIONS OF FACILITIES AT RISK IN THE GULF Pemex, Mexico’s oil company, began evacuating 13,500 workers from its oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, August 20. Petroleos Mexicanos evacuated all 18,000 offshore workers and shut down production rigs on the Bay of Campeche. This action resulted in a loss of revenue from daily production of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas

18. FOOD AND WATER GONE; CANCUN, MEXICO: AUGUST 19

19. REMEMBERING WILMA, TOURISTS LEAVE CANCUN: AUGUST 19

20. 50,000 TOURISTS LEFT MEXICO BY AUGUST 20

21. CHETUMAL: TAKING SHELTER IN A SCHOOL; AUGUST 20

22. HURRICANE DEAN AT LANDFALL: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean made landfall at Majahual, Mexico as a category 5 storm with winds of 165 mi/hr. Just before landfall, Dean had a minimum central pressure of 906 millibars, the third lowest pressure after the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.

23. HURRICANE DEAN’S LANDFALL: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean’s landfall at Majahual, a port popular with cruise liners, was “good luck” for the people of Mexico. This location was a sparsely populated coastline that had already been evacuated, so none of the major resorts took a direct hit, and after a few hours, dean became a CAT 2 storm.

24. MAYANS AT RISK: AUGUST 21 Hurricane Dean threatened the Yucatan’s most vulnerable people — the Mayans, who have not benefited from tourism or oil production. They are poor, living simple lives, in wooden slat houses susceptible to wind damage that are located in low- lying areas prone to flooding.

25. LOCATION OF MEXICO’S MAYAN COMMUNITIES

26. IMPACTS IN MAJAHUAL Hundreds of homes collapsed in Mexico’s second busiest cruise ship destination. Steel girders collapsed and wooden structures splintered from the force of the wind. About one-half the concrete dock washed away in the storm surge.

27. MAJAHUAL LANDFALL: 270 KM/HR (165 MI/HR) WINDS; AUGUST 21

28. CHETUMAL: FLOODING ON AUGUST 21

29. BACALAR: FLOODING; AUGUST 21

30. HURRICANE DEAN’S SECOND LANDFALL: TECOLUTLA, MEXICO

31. THE SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO: AUGUST 22 Hurricane Dean crossed the Bay of Campeche and made a second landfall as a category 2 storm on Wednesday, August 22. Landfall was at Tecolutla, a fishing town in the state of Veracruz on the Central Mexican coast, about 660 km (400 mi) from the border with Texas.

32. PRESIDENT FELIPE CALDERON VISITS CHETUMAL: AUGUST 22

33. STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINFALL: AUGUST 22 Hurricane Dean’s storm surge flooded Ciuidad del Carmen, a town of 120,000, with waist deep sea water. Heavy rain fall accompanying Dean, now a category 1 storm, caused rivers to rise rapidly in a region that experienced flooding and landslides in 1999.

34. MAYAN COMMUNITIES SEVERELY IMPACTED Mexico’s Mayan communities have survived many damaging storms and centuries of oppression, but surviving Hurricane Dean’s impacts on their livelihood was one of their greatest challenge ever. The greatest impact was NOT the thousands of destroyed Mayan homes, but the loss of food.

35. EARTHQUAKES EARTHQUAKES LIKE THE SEPTEMBER 19, 1985 QUAKE OCCUR MAINLY AS A RESULT OF INTERACTIONS OF THE COCOS AND NORTH AMERICAN PLATES

36. SUBDUCTION: COCOS AND NORTH AMERICAN PLATES

37. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES PREPAREDNESS PLANNING FOR THE INEVITABLE GROUND SHAKING IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

38. INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND FAILURE) IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP POOR DETAILING AND WEAK CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS FRAGILITY OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

39. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NOTABLE EARTHQUAKES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

40. SCHOOL: MEXICO CITY; M8.1 QUAKE, SEPTEMBER 19, 1985

41. MEXICO CITY-- 400 BUILDINGS IN OLD LAKE BED ZONE DAMAGED

42. HOTEL REGIS: COLLAPSE

43. TSUNAMIS M8 SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKES USUALLY GENERATE TSUNAMIS

44. TSUNAMI HAZARD TSUNAMIS ARE LONG- PERIOD WATER WAVES CAUSED BY THE VERTICAL UPLIFT OF THE OCEAN FLOOR DURING A M8.0 OR GREATER EARTHQUAKE.

45. HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING INADEQUATE HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL EVACUATION PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

46. FLOODS FLOODS ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OR HURRICANES

47. 70 % OF MEXICO’S TABASCO STATE UNDER WATER: NOV 2, 2007

48. LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURE & CONTENTS: DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF RISK DISASTER LABORATORIES

49. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBDUCTION ZONES.

50. ACTIVE VOLCANOES

51. EXPLOSIVE VOLCANOES OCCUR IN SUBDUCTION ZONES

52. ERUPTION OF POPOCATEPL PLACES MEXICO CITY AT RISK

53. LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS LAHARS TOXIC GASES CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

54. LANDSLIDES LARGE VOLUME LANDSLIDES ARE TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EARTHQUAKE GROUND SHAKING AND HURRICANES RAINFALL

55. LANDSLIDE FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINS IN MEXICO: JULY 2007

56. SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES LANDSLIDES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE CAUSES OF DAMAGE CASE HISTORIES

57. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NATURAL HAZARDS CAPACITY FOR INTELLIGENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.

58. LESSONS LEARNED FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL NATURAL HAZARDS CAPACITY FOR RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION IS ESSENTIAL FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE.