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“ACHIEVING RECOVERY IN A CHANGED WORLD” The Cairns Economy Recent Movements & Short / Medium Term Prospects Ref: J2368 | August 2010 Presentation to the.

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Presentation on theme: "“ACHIEVING RECOVERY IN A CHANGED WORLD” The Cairns Economy Recent Movements & Short / Medium Term Prospects Ref: J2368 | August 2010 Presentation to the."— Presentation transcript:

1 “ACHIEVING RECOVERY IN A CHANGED WORLD” The Cairns Economy Recent Movements & Short / Medium Term Prospects Ref: J2368 | August 2010 Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon

2 Cummings Economics / August 2010 2009 / 2010 ONE OF CAIRNS’ WORST YEARS 2

3 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Far North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 3 MONTH AVERAGE 2008 2009 2010 3

4 NUMBERS ON NEWSTART & YOUTH ALLOWANCE Far North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from DECVR data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 2009 2010 4

5 RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH 2007/08 FASTEST GROWING REGIONS IN AUSTRALIA (Stat. Div. in Aust.) Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 5

6 RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 6

7 VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS Far North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. $M Cummings Economics / August 2010 7

8 OTHER FACTORS CONTRIBUTING LARGE CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES IN TROUBLE THE QANTAS / JETSTAR DECISION ON JAPANESE FLIGHTS THE WINDING BACK OF CYCLONE LARRY RECOVERY EXPENDITURE Cummings Economics / August 2010 8

9 PRIVATE BUILDING APPROVALS Cummings Economics / August 2010 2007/082008/092009/10 Dwellings Number299112841181 Non-Dwelling Value$365M$141M$123M Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. 9

10 2009 FEDERAL MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PACKAGE Cummings Economics / August 2010 CAIRNS REGION MISSES OUT 10

11 . Cummings Economics / August 2010 CONSUMERS TIGHTEN BELT CONSUMER DURABLES SALES DOWN 3000 PLUS MINING WORKFORCE AFFECTED WITH FLOW-ON EFFECTS IN OTHER SECTORS 11

12 TOURISM RESOURCES - TOURISM GROWTH CAIRNS AIRPORT PASSENGER MOVEMENTS (Excluding international transits) No. % 1997/98 2,725,0000.4% Asian crisis 1998/99 2,770,0001.7% 1999/00 2,882,0004.0% +6% 2000/01 2,972,0003.1% 2001/02 2,878,000(-3.2%) Ansett collapse 2002/03 3,083,0007.1% + 32% 2003/04 3,402,00010.3% 2004/05 3,689,0008.4% 2005/06 3,832,0003.4% 2006/07 3,889,0001.4% High dollar 2007/08 3,846,000(-0.8%) 2008/09 3,703,052(-4.0%) Loss of Japanese flights 2009/10 3,565,888(-3.7%) Loss of Japanese flights Source: Cummings Economics from CPA & Cairns Airports. Cummings Economics / August 2010 12

13 TOURISM EXPENDITURE FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND DOMESTIC $MINTERNATIONAL $MTOTAL $M 2003/04 $1,424$1,020$2,444 2004/05 $1,319$1,106$2,425 2005/06 $1,468$1,110$2,578 2006/07 $1,545$1,041$2,586 2007/08 $1,546$1,030$2,576 2009 (YE DEC) $1,741$813$2,554 2009/10 (YE MAR) $1,791$810$2,607 Source: Cummings Economics from NVS & IVS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 13

14 PRIMARY INDUSTRIES SECTOR HOLDS Cummings Economics / August 2010 TABLELANDS$303M WET TROPICS$907M CAPE YORK$66M GULF$210M $1486M GROSS FARMGATE VALUE OF AGRICULTURE & AQUACULTURE FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND 2008-09 DOES NOT INCLUDE FISHING + FORESTRY + VALUE ADDED PROCESSING Source: Cummings Economics from DEEDI (Primary Industries Section). 14

15 EMPLOYED, UNEMPLOYED & TOTAL WORKFORCE Far North Stat Division – 3 Month Averages Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 142.3 146.9 144.3145.8145.1 148.0 146.8 151.0151.2 15 ‘000’s

16 16 OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES – AUSTRALIA COMPARED Source: Cummings Economics from RBA data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 2008 2009 2010

17 17 $AUST TO $US IN CENTS Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 2008 2009 2010

18 18 COMPARATIVE BUILDING APPROVALS - GOVERNMENT 2009/10 Stat DivisionDwellingsNon-Dwelling Construction Northern Territory 314$278M Far North Qld 206$184M Northern Qld 386$278M Mackay Region 46$365M Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010

19 19 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND & AUSTRALIA Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010

20 20 PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Cummings Economics / August 2010 SHORT TERM MIXED SITUATION NEGATIVE DAIRYING, BANANAS POSITIVE SUGAR

21 Cummings Economics / August 2010 MINERAL PRICES 21

22 Cummings Economics / August 2010 ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN MINING CAIRNS FAR NORTH QUEENLAND Estimate(cf est 2008) Estimated residential mining workforce in the region 1,150 1,300(1,600) Estimated workforce flying into mines in the region 150 Estimated workforce flying in to mines outside the region 1,500(1,400) North West Queensland700(970) PNG and NT800(480) Estimated equivalent full time workforce for construction and maintenance operations at mines 500(500) Total3,300(3,500) Source: Cummings Economics from industry information. 22

23 Cummings Economics / August 2010 MINING IN FAR NORTH STAT DIVISION 18 OPERATIONS - 1700 ~ 2000 JOBS ESTIMATE OF PROSPECTIVE ADDITIONAL OPERATIONS & EMPLOYMENT 23

24 Cummings Economics / August 2010 AREAS OF PRIMARY & SECONDARY ENGAGEMENT 24

25 25 PASSENGER ARRIVALS AND DEPARTURES – CAIRNS AIRPORT % CHANGE ON PREVIOUS YEAR Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / August 2010 2009 2010

26 26 TTNQ TOURISM MONITOR JUNE & JULY 2010 HOTELS / RESORTSJUNEJULY 100 ROOMS PLUS+13.3%+3.8% 50 – 99 ROOMS-4.2%+7.5% UNDER 50 ROOMS+4.3%+2.5% TOTAL+4.3%+5.0% CARAVAN PARKSUP STRONGLY LAND TOURS & ATTRACTIONS+16%+7% REEF FERRIESUP Cummings Economics / August 2010

27 TEMPORARY ELECTION UNCERTAINTIES 27

28 Cummings Economics / August 2010 STIMULUS PACKAGE BUILDING THE EDUCATION REVOLUTION $150M MOST NOW STARTED PEAK 2 ND HALF 2010 WIND DOWN OVER 2011 SOCIAL HOUSING $90M MORE THAN HALF STARTED PEAK ACTIVITY 2 ND HALF OF 2010 & INTO 1 ST HALF 2011 REMOTE INDIGENOUS HOUSING $200M SLOW STARTING – MOST IN 2010/11 28

29 29 GOVERNMENT CONSTRUCTION 2010/112011/12 JCU$60M TAFE$25M- MARINE COLLEGE$4M- AG COLLEGE$8M- TERMINAL$4M- CAIRNS BASE$80M$120M LOTUS GLEN$90M GP SUPER CLINIC$7M- TAGAI COLLEGE T.I.$20M$18M COMMUNITY HEALTH$5M- AMBULANCE / POLICE$13M- TOTAL$316M$288M Cummings Economics / August 2010

30 30 CIVIL WORKS CARDWELL SHIRE$90M SOUTHERN BRUCE HWY$150M PENINSULA ROAD BRIDGES$15M CASSOWARY COAST WATER$40M PENINSULA SEWERAGE PLANTS$57M KENNEDY DEVELOPMENTAL RD$2M JUBILEE BRIDGE$20M $374M TIMING ? Cummings Economics / August 2010

31 NEXT 12 MONTHS POSITIVES TOURISM UPLIFT MINING JOBS – SERVICES PREVIOUSLY UNDERSUPPLIED GOVERNMENT SERVICES NO LARGE OVERSUPPLY OF PROPERTY HAS DEVELOPED 31

32 NEXT 12 MONTHS WORLD ECONOMY RESERVE BANK AND INTEREST RATES AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR RETURNING CONFIDENCE – PERCEPTION OF THE REGION AMONG INVESTORS Cummings Economics / August 2010 32

33 Cummings Economics / August 2010 COMPARATIVE LONG TERM GROWTH REGIONAL STATISTICAL DIVISIONS 1981 – 2009 19812009 % Growth Far North 140,168269,650+92% North 156,501241,515 (1) +54% North West 40,16733,979(-15%) Mackay 89,763158,560 (2) +77% Fitzroy 145,522220,714+52% Central West 14,32412,270(-14%) Darling Downs 168,641237,211+41%  Note: 3 largest. (1) Including Bowen. (2) Excluding Bowen. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. 33

34 Cummings Economics / August 2010 COMPARATIVE LONG TERM GROWTH QUEENSLAND’S MAIN REGIONAL CITIES 1947 – 2009 19472009 % Growth Cairns 16,644147,118+783% Townsville 34,109168,402+394% Mackay 13,48683,680+520% Rockhampton 34,08877,017+126% Bundaberg 15,92651,109+220% Toowoomba 35,194128,600+265%  Note: 3 largest. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. 34

35 CAIRNS & PENINSULA AUSTRALIA Cummings Economics / August 2010 RECOVERING IN A CHANGED WORLD OF MASSIVE INDUSTRIALISATION IN ASIA TOURISM RECOVERY JOINED BY MAJOR NEW OPPORTUNITIES IN MINING & PRIMARY INDUSTRIES 35

36 TROPICAL TABLELANDS | GULF SAVANNAH | TORRES STRAIT WESTERN CAPE | EASTERN CAPE | COOKTOWN DISTRICT GREAT BARRIER REEF | WORLD HERITAGE RAINFORESTS | SAVANNAH WOODLANDS 36

37 “ACHIEVING RECOVERY IN A CHANGED WORLD” The Cairns Economy Cummings Economics 38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870 Ph: 40312888 | Email: cummings@cummings.net.au | Fax: 40311108cummings@cummings.net.au Ref: J2239 | 31 July 2009 www.cummings.net.au www.cummings.net.au Presentation to the Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon 37

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