1. Olumide Adisa (Ph.D) Gas Market Modeller
PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model: Modelling the Impact of LNG Demand on the East Coast Gas Market
Olumide Adisa (Ph.D)
Gas Market Modeller
March 2014

2. Energy Exemplar® Commercial since 1999
Focused on PLEXOS® for Energy Systems Software
Global client base served from four locations:
Adelaide, Australia
London, United Kingdom
Johannesburg, South Africa
Sacramento, CA, USA West Coast
Hartford, CT, USA East Coast
20% staff with Ph.D. level qualifications spanning Operations Research, Electrical Engineering, Economics, Mathematics and Statistics
Client base growing 30% p.a.

3. Client Map
Worldwide installations of PLEXOS exceed 1060 at more than 175 sites worldwide in 37 countries.
Users: Power Generation Companies, Transmission System Operators (TSOs), Independent System Operators (ISOs), Electricity and Gas Market Operators, Energy Commission and Regulators, Price Forecasting Agencies, Power Plant Manufacturers, Consultants, Analysts, Academics & Research Institutions

4. Analysis tools in PLEXOS®
What makes PLEXOS® engine so powerful?
MODELING FLEXIBILITY
EFFICIENCY
SIMULATION ALTERNATIVES
ADVANCED CAPABILITIES
Power market design:
Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, UK, CAISO, MISO, Singapore, Chile
Cutting edge technology:
.Net Framework 4.0 and XML
Built-in functions and solving methods.
Optimization: Xpress, CPLEX, Gurobi, Mosek
Simulator Features:
Long, medium and short term
Stochastic and deterministic optimization
Analysis Capabilities:
Cost-based analysis
Simulate competitive behaviour
Co-optimization of resources and services
Profit Maximization
Integrated Transmission and Hydro

5. Portfolio Optimization
Features: Overview
Generation
Markets
Transmission
Visualization
Renewables
Financials
Gas Modelling
Timeframes
Stochastic
DSM
Portfolio Optimization
Customizations

6. PLEXOS Features Energy Exemplar Generation Optimal capacity expansion
Unit commitment
Heat rate model
Maintenance optimization
Monte Carlo simulation
Fuel constraints
Emission constraints
Technical limits
Auxiliary use
Ancillary services
CCGT & CHP
SCUC (Contingency)
Transmission
Radial and meshed networks
Regional pricing
Nodal pricing
Large-scale networks AC & DC
Interface limits
Losses (regional & zonal)
LMP decomposition
Wheeling charges
Pricing methods
Contingencies and SC-OPF
SCUC (Contingency)
ISO level outputs
Transformers
Phase shifters
Interfaces
Renewables
All types
Energy constraints
Must-run limits
External profiles
Cascading Hydro
Pumped Storage
Uncertainty
Demand Bidding & Participation
Energy
Ancillary Services
Interruptible loads
Financials
Financial contracts
CfD & FTR
Generator bid formation
Gaming models
Pricing and Uplift
Escalators
Markets &
Portfolio Optimisation
Energy
Ancillary Services
Heat
Fuel
Capacity
Visualisation
Geospatial
Pre-set results graphs
Google Earth
Integrated Gas Modelling
Basins
Fields
Storage
Pipeline
External gas markets
Optimal capacity expansion
Transmission constraints
Peak shaving services
Linepack optimization
Demand forecasting
Production constraints
Nodal processing
Demand bids and quantity
Production cost tranches
Gas contracts
Pipeline de-rating
Gas Model Planned Features
LNG shipment optimization modelling
Stochastic
Variable inputs
Correlations
Stochastic optimization
Monte Carlo
Box-Jenkins methods
Brownian with mean reversion
Timeframes
1-minute to 10’s of years
Constraint decomposition
LDC model
Chronological model
Time Slices
Customizations
Generic constraints
Open PLEXOS
Automation
Data retrieval
Energy Exemplar

7. PLEXOS Scope

8. PLEXOS Simulator Structure
10 + year studies
Build & Retire Production & Transmission
Captures Production Contracts
Long Term Optimal Investment
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological

9. PLEXOS Simulator Structure
Long Term Optimal Investment
Schedules maintenance
Models forced outages
Computes LOLP, optimal reserve levels etc
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological

10. PLEXOS Simulator Structure
Long Term Optimal Investment
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Breaks down constraints
Optimises constraints in storages, fields etc
Fast results for MT studies
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological

11. PLEXOS Simulator Structure
Long Term Optimal Investment
Optimal Maintenance Scheduling
Chronological optimisation in each ST period
Emulates market clearing engines
Captures competitive behaviour eg Nash-Cournot
Medium Term Decomposition
Short Term Chronological

12. PLEXOS® Integrated Energy Model
Modelling the Impact of LNG Demand on the East Coast Gas Market Case Study: NSW

13. Key PLEXOS® Gas Module Interface Classes
Energy Exemplar

14. Study topology and assumptionsSA
QLD
NSW
VIC
TAS
SEA gas Pipeline
MSP Pipeline
Eastern gas pipeline
Tasmanian gas pipeline
QSN Link
Maximization of social welfare by taking a least-cost modelling approach.
Perfectly competitive market – no market power of participants
LNG netback price of $13/GJ in QLD
LNG demand - 6 trains totalling 1518PJ/Year by 2023
New build variables for CSG development in NSW
Production and transmission constraints from AEMO GSOO 2013
Published AEMO natural gas load used
Energy Exemplar

15. Results
Energy Exemplar

16. Results
Energy Exemplar

17. Conclusion – Where/how does optimization fit in our market?
LT Modelling
MT Modelling
Resource Management for gas prices
Resource Allocation and Planning
Contract Portfolio and Swing Optimization
ST Modelling
Demand Side Management
Peak Demand Shaving
Shortage Curtailment
Maintenance
Maintenance Planning
Optimal Out-of-Service Units Management
Optimal investment planning
Cost savings on portfolio
in the long term
Subsurface – surface – Market; Forecasting for short, medium and long term; Integrated Asset Modelling – gas delivery network, subsurface reservoir model, production optimization algorithm. PLEXOS can provide full optionality from surface -> Market
Energy Exemplar

18. Energy Exemplar