1. SAFER Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope Seismic Early Warning
Naples
Bucharest
Athens
Istanbul
Cairo
Iceland
Switzerland
Greece
The starting point
The SAFER plan
Achievements
Future tasks
What next?
The agenda

2. Seconds before the earthquake hits!
Early Warning
Aussprache: shear shear = thank you
Seconds before the earthquake hits!

3. The Disaster Reduction Chain Early warning is an important component!
Process
Understanding
Scientists
Hazard
Assessment
Scientists
Risk
Assessment
Scientists,
Engineers
Safe
Building
Engineers
Early
Warning
Decision
Makers,
Local Author.
Various
Groups
Knowledge
Transfer
Rapid
Earthquake
Information
Scientists,
Engineers
Rapid
Impact
Assessment
Scientists,
Engineers

4. SAFER Where did we start? Seismic Early Warning
In seismic early warning
Europe was far behind
the US, Japan, Taiwan
and Mexico!
Bucharest
Istanbul
Only Istanbul and Bucharest
had started to develop
EW-capabilities for their cities!
In particular,
the shake map technology
had not been implemented
in Europe!

5. What Did We Have in Mind?
Develop seismic early warning methods and capabilities for Europe
Implement and test new methods in European test areas and -cities
Naples
Bucharest
Athens
Istanbul
Cairo
Iceland
Switzerland
Greece

6. Regional Early Warning
Seismic EW - Probabilistic and Evolutionary Approach to Real-Time Distance, Magnitude and PGA (AMRA/SAFER) a. d. b.
However:
The problem of
large magnitudes
(from the first seconds)!
Achievements:
A New Concept
for
Regional Early Warning c. e.
a., b., c.: Real-Time distributions of source-to-site distance, magnitude, and PGA
(at site); d. Lead-time map (when 4 stations have triggered) and real-time risk reduction actions; e. Decisional rule based on PGA- and false alarm probabilities.

7. CNRS/SAFER- Achievements:
Rapid Source Parameters Within Minutes
Earthquake
origin time
Earthquake detection and localisation
"Early P-wave magnitude"
A few seconds
Early warning
Earthquake detection and localisation
„Early P-wave magnitude“
Moment magnitude Mw
2 minutes
Rapid source
parameters
Step 1
Focal mechanism
15 minutes
Step 2
40 minutes
Slip distribution
Step 3
Global CMT solutions: > 1 hour
TIME

8. More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008).
Achievements (GFZ): Rapid determination of the energy magnitude Me The case of the great Sumatra earthquake
The red star represent the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake location, the black triangles the broadband stations used to compute Me(GFZ), and the blue circles represent the S-wave arrival times. On the right the number of stations NS used to compute Me(GFZ) at different times after OT is also shown.
Me determination using (S-P) time windows for the 26 December, 2004 Sumatra earthquake. Already about 15 min after OT our procedure could have provided a stable Me determination.
More details can be found in Di Giacomo et al. (GRL 2008).
D. Di Giacomo, H. Grosser, S. Parolai, P. Bormann, and R. Wang

9. Achievements (GFZ/HU): People Centered Early Warning System
Self Organizing Mesh Networks for Early Warning and Rapid Response
“Decentralized” versus “centralized” systems
“People centered“
versus „one voice“
A new technology
for seismic
early warning!
Basic Features
self-organizing!
decentralized!
low-cost!
dense!
Client station

10. Achievements (WAPMERR/NORSAR): More rapid and more precise
Actual
(Magnitude 6.3)
after D. Wald, USGS
6/4/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /4/09
BBC
dpa
300
250
200
150
100 50
Rapid Damage and Loss Assessment
Time-Line of Information Availability on Death Toll Due
to the L`Aquila M=6.2 event on April 6th 2009
More rapid and more precise
impact assessment
is needed!
First 12 hours:
Death Toll < 50!

11. Achievements (test sites): Ground Shaking Intensity
Rapid
Impact
Assessment
Achievements (test sites):
Ground Shaking Intensity
Can be Overlayed
on Infrastructure!
The shake-map-technology
has now been implemented
through SAFER
in many places in Europe!
and
real-time damage assessment
is feasible,
but needs more testing (GEM?)
Ground Shaking Intensity
Shake-Maps
within
a few
minutes!
(The Northridge
Scenario)

12. Near Real-Time Aftershock Forecasting
Combining
Non-Stationary Statistics
with
Physics of Earthquakes
Achievements (GFZ/ETH):
New Application of
Time-Dependent Hazard Assessment:
Near Real-Time
Aftershock Forecasting 12

13. Achievements (NGI): Early Warning for Earthquake Induced Landslides13

14. Major Contributions to International Meetings
Achievements:
Visibility
Dissemination
Public Relation
Major Contributions to International Meetings
American Geophysical Union (AGU), Dec 2007
European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2008
European Seismological Comm. (ESC), Sept 2008
European Geosciences Union (EGU), April 2009
2nd International Workshop on Earthquake
Early Warning, Kyoto, Japan, April 2009

15. Achievements: Publications International Journals: More than 30
Presentations: More than 100
Book on Early Warning (Springer)
Second Book (Springer) in Preparation
Special Volume in Geophys. Research Letters
Special Issue of Soil Dynamics and Earthquake
Engineering (SDEE, in Preparation))

16. Further Achievements Contracting many young scientists
Forming a European Science Community
in the field of Seismic Early Warning
Contributing to the networking between large
European projects like NERIES, TRANSFER,…..

17. SAFER Final Deadlines and Proposed Schedule FINAL DEADLINES
SAFER FINAL MEETING
JUNE 3th-5th
END OF THE PROJECT
JUNE 14th
DEADLINE FOR SUBMITING THE FINAL ACTIVITY REPORT AND FINANCIAL REPORT (INCLUDING AUDIT CERTIFICATES)
JULY 30th
PROPOSED SCHEDULE
REPORTS FROM WP LEADERS AND TEST SITE LEADERS
JUNE 15th
FINANCIAL REPORTS AND AUDIT CERTIFICATES
JULY 15th
SUBMISSION OF THE FINAL REPORT

18. SAFER Deliverables Report Agenda Vision Partner D Total Delivered
Missing
Percentage
GFZ 18 10 8
55,56%
AMRA 13 3
76,92%
UNIKARL* 7
100,00%
KOERI 4 1
25,00%
UBER 6
50,00%
INGV 5
83,33%
NOA
57,14%
NKUA 9
44,44%
CNRS**
0,00%
EMSC 2
ETHZ
NIEP
NORSAR
85,71%
NGI
IMOR
40,00%
WAPMER
SELEX
66,67%
NRIAG
KNMI
CEDIM
Berkeley
TOTAL
116 75 41
64,66%
SAFER
Deliverables
Report
Agenda
Vision
* del 2.17 and del.4.18 are identical
** CNRS has delivered its contribution to del.2,5 but the deliverable has not been completed yet