1. Determining Optimal Level of Product Availability Optimal Matching of Supply and Demand (III) 【本著作除另有註明外，採取創用 CC 「姓名標示 －非商業性－相同方式分享」台灣 3.0 版授權釋出】創用 CC 「姓名標示 －非商業性－相同方式分享」台灣 3.0 版 第十單元： Determining Optimal Level of Product Availability 1 蔣明晃教授

2. Pull Postponement:EX.2 Wikipedia Flickr _ kennethkonica 2

3. Pull Postponement ►Basic Elements: 》 The process steps must be sequenced so that the less differentiating steps are performed at prior to the decoupling point. 》 After the decoupling point, the process steps can be performed flexible and fast. 》 Accurate order capture for BTO. >Example: National Bicycle, Benetton. 3

4. 延遲差異化 ► 延遲差異化 (Postponement Differentiation) 之意義 》此種延遲主要是運用在最終產品的需求未確定時，先 生產一些通用或產品族共通的部分，等到特定的產品 需求確定後再進行生產或製造，以減少不確定性。 4

5. 延遲差異化的做法 ► 作業程序的重排序 (Resequencing) 》例子 : US disk drive manufacturing. Insert generic circuit board into assembly, complete much of the testing, remove the generic circuit board, and add customer-specific boards later. 》例子 : Benetton, postpone dyeing until after assembled. Cost: 10% more expensive, new machine purchased and employee retrained. 5

6. 延遲差異化的做法 ► 產品的共通性 (Commonality) 》例子 : Printer manufacturing, redesign the new and old products to share a common circuit board and printhead such that final process can be delayed. 》利用產品線或產品族的重新設計來達成 本作品轉載自 hp (http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/A1- 12771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html) ，依據著 作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/A1- 12771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html 6

7. 延遲差異化的做法 ► 模組化 (Modularity) ： 》 模組化產品設計：將功能採模組化，使各個模組能 夠簡易且以較低成本的添加到產品上。例子： HP Laser Jet 》模組化製程設計：製程應設計盡 量獨立的生產模組，容易因應不 同的要求進行彈性的調整。例子： print-and- pigment mixture, Levis jeans 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體 藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝 廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體 藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作權法 第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 7

8. 延遲差異化的做法 ► 標準化 (Standardization): 》建立數種顧客所需的標準化產品之選擇. ► 機動敏捷的供應網路 (Agile Supply Networks) 》某些網路節點存放基本的產品, 並在收到顧 客訂單時進行客製化的最後作業. 8

9. Concurrent and Parallel Processing ►Concurrent and parallel processing involves modifying the manufacturing process so that steps that were previously performed in a sequence can be completed at the same time. ►A key is the concept of modularity or decoupling 》 reduce lead time 》 reduce inventory cost 9

10. 延遲差異化施行的考量 ► 重新排序或延遲時所需資本投入之考量。 ► 重新排序或延遲時所需技術與能力之考量。 ► 延遲的結果可能使存貨成本提高。 ► 在國際運籌作業中，各進出口國對原物料，零 組件或在製品的關稅考量。 10

11. WIKIPEDIA Logistics Postponement ►M►Meaning: 》R》R edesign the tasks in the SC so that some of the customization steps can be performed downstream closer to the customers. 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體 藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 本作品轉載自 CoolCLIPS 網站 (http://dir.coolclips.com/Food/Ve getables/Vegetable_groups/bam boo,_woodcut_style_vc001509. html), Free 150 pixel Jpeg Image ，瀏覽日期 2012/03/16 。 按著作權法第 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://dir.coolclips.com/Food/Ve getables/Vegetable_groups/bam boo,_woodcut_style_vc001509. html 11

12. Requirements for logistics postponement ►c►can not lead to quality degradation. ►d►downstream sites have capability to perform the task without excessive cost and time. ►p►potentially to procure the necessary components or modules for the customization. ►t►the engineering team is able and willing to design products and processes to defer the steps effectively. 12

13. Form Postponement ►Meaning: 》 postponement is achieved through the change in the form of the product structure by standardizing some of the process steps or components. ►Example: HP Laser Printer. 本作品轉載自 hp (http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/ A1-12771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html) ， 依據著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/ A1-12771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html 13

14. ►P►Products or processes should be modular in structure. ►D►Design engineer should be aware of the importance of SCM to pursuit design for postponement opportunity. ►M►Must involve multiple functions or organization in collaboration. ►Q►Quantify the costs and benefits to determine the best point for postponement Postponement Enablers 14

15. The Value of Postponement ►I►Improve matching of supply and demand: need to qualify the benefit with additional cost ►I►Increase profitability: differentiate after receiving customer order so that inventories can be reduced ►V►Valuable for selling a large variety of products with demand that is independent and comparable in size 15

16. Value of Postponement: Benetton ◈ For each color 》 Mean demand = 1,000; SD = 500 ◈ For each garment 》 Sale price = $50 》 Salvage value = $10 》 Production cost using option 1 (thread are dyed and the garment was knitted) with long lead time = $20 》 Production cost using option 2 (dying was postponed until after the garment was knitted) = $22 ►What is the value of postponement? 本作品轉載自 Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/) ，依據 著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://www.benettongroup.com/ 16

17. Value of Postponement: Benetton ►O►Option 1: 》C》C SL* = (p - c) /(p - s) = 30/40 = 0.75 》O》O * = NORMINV(0.75, 1000, 500) = 1,337 units of each color 》E》E xpected profits from each color = $23,644 》E》E xpected overstock for each color = 412 》E》E xpected understock for each color = 75 》5》5 348 sweaters are produced, expected profit of $94,576 with an average of 1,648 sweaters sold on clearance and 300 customers turns away for lack of sweaters 1,337X4=5348 23,644X4=94,576 本作品轉載自 Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/) ，依據著作 權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://www.benettongroup.com/ 17

18. Value of Postponement: Benetton ►O►Option 2: c = $22 instead of $20 》C》C SL* = (p - c) /(p - s) = 28/40 = 0.70 》.》. 》E》E xpected profits = $98,092 》E》E xpected overstock for each color = 715 》E》E xpected understock for each color = 190 ►E►Expected profit increases from $94,576 to $98,092 ►E►Expected overstock declines from 1,648 to 715 ►E►Expected understock declines from 300 to 190 O*A = NORMINV(0.70, 1000 x 4, 500 x  ) = 4,524 units 本作品轉載自 Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/) ，依據著 作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://www.benettongroup.com/ 18

19. 本作品轉載自 Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/) ，依據 著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://www.benettongroup.com/ Value of Postponement with Dominant Product ►C►Color with dominant demand (red): Mean = 3,100, SD = 800 ►O►Other three colors: Mean = 300, SD = 200 ►O►Option 1: 》C》C SL* = 0.75 》O》O ptimal production of red sweaters O* = NORMINV(0.75, 3100, 800) = 3,640; expected profit = $82,831, expected overstock = 659, expected understock = 119 》O》O ptimal production of each other color sweater = 435; expected profit = $6,458, expected overstock = 165, expected understock = 30 》T》T otal production = 4,945, expected profit = $102,205, expected overstock = 1,154, expected understock = 209 3640+4,35X3=4,945$82,831 + $6,458 =4,945 19

20. Value of Postponement with Dominant Product ►O►Option 2: 》》 A = 3100 + 3  300 = 4,000;  A = 》T》T otal production = 4,457; expected profit = $99,872, expected overstock = 623, expected understock = 166 ►E►Expected profit without postponement = $102,205 ►E►Expected profit with postponement = $99,872 20

21. Meaning of Pure Postponement ►Postponement may reduce overall profit for a firm if a single product contributes the majority of the demand, since the increased manufacturing expense due to postponement outweighs the small benefit from aggregation 21

22. 本作品轉載自 Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/) ，依據著 作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://www.benettongroup.com/ Tailored Postponement: Benetton ►O►On the portion of the certain demand, postponement provides little value, thus, company needs to use lower cost method. ►O►On the portion of the uncertain demand, postponement significantly improves forecast accuracy, thus, company is willing to incur higher cost to achieve the benefit. ►P►Produce Q1 units for each color using Option 1 and QA units (aggregate) using Option 2 22

23. Tailored Postponement: Benetton Manufacturing Policy AverageProfitAverageOverstockAverageUnderstock Q1Q1Q1Q1 QAQAQAQA 04524$97847510210 13370$943771369282 7001850$102730308168 8001550$104603427170 900950$101326607266 9001050$101647664230 1000850$100312815195 1000950$100951803149 1100550$991801026211 1100650$1005101008185 23

24. The Benefit of Tailored Postponement ►Tailored postponement allows a firm to increase its profitability by postponing only the uncertain part of the demand and producing the predictable part at a lower cost without postponement 24

25. The Meaning of Tailored Sourcing ►A►A combination of two supply sources: one focusing on cost but unable to handle uncertainty well, and the other focusing on flexibility to handle uncertainty but a higher cost ►A►A backup policy ►D►Disadvantage: increasing complexity of implementation 25

26. Tailored Sourcing ►S►Sourcing alternatives 》L》L ow cost, long lead time supplier ►C►Cost = $245, Lead time = 9 weeks 》H》H igh cost, short lead time supplier ►C►Cost = $250, Lead time = 1 week 26

27. Tailored Sourcing Strategies Fraction of demand from overseas supplier Annual Profit 0%$37,250 50%$51,613 60%$53,027 100%$48,875 27

28. Tailored Sourcing: Multiple Sourcing Sites Characteristic Primary Site Secondary Site Manufacturing Cost HighLow Flexibility (Volume/Mix) HighLow ResponsivenessHighLow Engineering Support HighLow 28

29. 本作品轉載自 Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/) ，依據著 作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://www.benettongroup.com/ Dual Sourcing Strategies Strategy Primary Site Secondary Site Volume based dual sourcing (Benetton) Fluctuation Stable demand Product based dual sourcing(Levi Strauss) Unpredictable products, Small batch Predictable, large batch products Model based dual sourcing Newer products Older stable products 29

30. Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits ►Many shortcomings in supply chain performance occur because the buyer and supplier are separate organizations and each tries to optimize its own profit ►Total supply chain profits might therefore be lower than if the supply chain coordinated actions to have a common objective of maximizing total supply chain profits ►Double marginalization results in suboptimal order quantity ►An approach to dealing with this problem is to design a contract that encourages a buyer to purchase more and increase the level of product availability ►The supplier must share in some of the buyer’s demand uncertainty 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體 藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作權法 第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 30

31. Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits ►Many shortcomings in supply chain performance occur because the buyer and supplier are separate organizations and each tries to optimize its own profit ►Total supply chain profits might therefore be lower than if the supply chain coordinated actions to have a common objective of maximizing total supply chain profits ►Double marginalization results in suboptimal order quantity ►An approach to dealing with this problem is to design a contract that encourages a buyer to purchase more and increase the level of product availability ►The supplier must share in some of the buyer’s demand uncertainty Impact of Supply Chain Contracts on Profitability: Buyback Contracts 》 Buybacks by publishers 》 Tech Fiber produces jacket at v = $10 and charges a wholesale price of c = $100. Ski Adventure sells jacket for p = $200. Demand is normal distributed with  =1,000 and  =300. Unsold jackets have no salvage value. ► Should TF be willing to buy back unsold jackets? Why? 》 CSL SA = 0.5, SA orders 1,000, expected profit = $76,063; TF sells 1,000 for a total profit of $90,000. Total expected SC profit = $166,063 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多 媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及 著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 31

32. Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits ►Many shortcomings in supply chain performance occur because the buyer and supplier are separate organizations and each tries to optimize its own profit ►Total supply chain profits might therefore be lower than if the supply chain coordinated actions to have a common objective of maximizing total supply chain profits ►Double marginalization results in suboptimal order quantity ►An approach to dealing with this problem is to design a contract that encourages a buyer to purchase more and increase the level of product availability ►The supplier must share in some of the buyer’s demand uncertainty 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝 廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 32

33. The Categories of Supply Contract ►H►Horizon Length ►P►Pricing: linear (proportional) or non-linear (two-part tariff); buyback, holding cost subsidies, payment for inability to supply ►P►Periodicity of ordering: fixed or random ►Q►Quantity commitment: 》T》T otal minimum commitment: quantity or dollar value 》P》P eriodical commitment 》D》D emand commitment 》C》C apacity commitment 33

34. The Categories of Supply Contract ►F►F lexibility: 》M》M agnitude or frequency of adjustments ►D►D elivery commitment: 》L》L ead time 》S》S hipment policy ►Q►Q uality: defect rates, specifications ►I►I nformation sharing 34

35. Supplier Selection and Contracts ►C►Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits 》B》B uyback Contracts 》R》R evenue-Sharing Contracts 》Q》Q uantity Flexibility Contracts ►C►Contracts to Coordinate Supply Chain Costs ►C►Contracts to Increase Agent Effort ►C►Contracts to Induce Performance Improvement 35

36. ►Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits 》 Buyback Contracts 》 Revenue-Sharing Contracts 》 Quantity Flexibility Contracts ►Contracts to Coordinate Supply Chain Costs ►Contracts to Increase Agent Effort ►Contracts to Induce Performance Improvement Supplier Selection and Contracts 》 Buybacks by publishers 》 Tech Fiber produces jacket at v = $10 and charges a wholesale price of c = $100. Ski Adventure sells jacket for p = $200. Demand is normal distributed with  =1,000 and  =300. Unsold jackets have no salvage value. ► Should TF be willing to buy back unsold jackets? Why? 》 CSL SA = 0.5, SA orders 1,000, expected profit = $76,063; TF sells 1,000 for a total profit of $90,000. Total expected SC profit = $166,063 Impact of Supply Chain Contracts on Profitability: Buyback Contracts 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝 廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 36

37. ►Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits 》 Buyback Contracts 》 Revenue-Sharing Contracts 》 Quantity Flexibility Contracts ►Contracts to Coordinate Supply Chain Costs ►Contracts to Increase Agent Effort ►Contracts to Induce Performance Improvement Supplier Selection and Contracts Impact of Supply Chain Contracts on Profitability: Buyback Contracts 》 For entire SC, SC makes $190 for each jacket sold, and only loses $10. Thus, the cost of understocking is $190, and the cost of overstock is $10. 》 The optimal CSL for entire SC is 0.95 and produce 1,493 jackets. Total SC profit is $183,812. 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多 媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及 著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 37

38. Return Policy : Buyback contracts ►I►Issue of Double Marginalization ►W►Wholesale price c ►B►Buyback price b ►M►Manufacturing salvage value $sM ►T►The salvage value for retailer is s=b ►O►Optimal order quantity O* ►E►Expected manufacturing profit = O*(c-v) – b  expected overstock at retailer = O*(c-v) – b  expected overstock at retailer v ：生產一單位的變動成本 38

39. Buyback Contracts Wholesal e Price c Buy- back price b Optimal Order Size for SA Expected Profit for SAExpected Returns to TF Expected Profit for TFExpectedSupply Chain Profit $100$010007606312090000166063 1003010678015415691338171492 1006011708572422391886177610 11009626625210296230162482 11078119178074239100480178555 11010514868693849396872183810 12009245681980101640158459 12096122170508261109225179733 120116150177500506106310183810 39

40. Buyback Contracts ►Manufactures can use buyback contracts to increase their own profit as well as total supply chain profits. Buyback contract also encourage retailers increase product availability ►Manufactures need to consider the cost associated with a return ►As the cost associated with a return increases, buyback contracts become less attractive. ►Applications: (1) bookstores return the cover of the book to reduce the cost of return; (2) manufactures use holding cost subsidies. 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多 媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著 作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒 體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約及著作 權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 40

41. Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits: Buyback Contracts ►A►Allows a retailer to return unsold inventory up to a specified amount at an agreed upon price ►I►Increases the optimal order quantity for the retailer, resulting in higher product availability and higher profits for both the retailer and the supplier ►M►Most effective for products with low variable cost, such as music, software, books, magazines, and newspapers ►H►High tech industry provides price support for retailers due to price drop rapidly 41

42. Contracts for Product Availability and Supply Chain Profits: Buyback Contracts ►Downside: 》 Results in surplus inventory that must be disposed of, which increases supply chain costs 》 Lead the retailer to exert less effort to sell 》 May increase information distortion through the supply chain because the supply chain reacts to retail orders, not actual customer demand 42

43. Revenue Sharing Contracts ►Manufacture charges the retailer a low wholesale price and shares a fraction of the revenue generated by the retailer. ►The retailer cost will be decreased due to lower overstock cost, thus, retailer will increase the level of product availability resulting higher profits for both manufacturer and retailer. 43

44. EX:BLOCKBUSTER Basher Eyre _Geograph 44

45. 版權聲明 頁碼作品授權條件作者 / 來源 2 Flickr ，作者： kennethkonica 。 ( http://www.flickr.com/photos/littlebiglens/6878901153/sizes/l/in/pool- 60201846@N00/) ， http://www.flickr.com/photos/littlebiglens/6878901153/sizes/l/in/pool- 60201846@N00/ 瀏覽日期： 2012/02/20 。該網站採取創用 CC 「姓名標示－禁止改作」 3.0 版授權釋出。創用 CC 「姓名標示－禁止改作」 3.0 版 2 本作品轉載自 WIKIPEDIA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:McDonald%27s_Golden_Arches.svg) ， 瀏覽日期 2012/03/23 。http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:McDonald%27s_Golden_Arches.svg) 6, 13 本作品轉載自 hp (http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/A1- 12771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html) ，依據著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://h10010.www1.hp.com/wwpc/au/en/sm/WF06c/A1- 12771-64209-64548-64548-26997-14820.html 7 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 7 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 7 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 16-19, 22, 29 本作品轉載自 Benetton Group (http://www.benettongroup.com/) ，依據著 作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://www.benettongroup.com/ 45

46. 版權聲明 頁碼作品授權條件作者 / 來源 11 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 11 本作品轉載自 CoolCLIPS 網站 (http://dir.coolclips.com/Food/Vegetables/Vegetable_groups/bamboo,_ woodcut_style_vc001509.html), Free 150 pixel Jpeg Image ，瀏覽日期 2012/03/16 。按著作權法第 52 、 65 條合理使用。http://dir.coolclips.com/Food/Vegetables/Vegetable_groups/bamboo,_ woodcut_style_vc001509.html 11 本作品轉載自 WIKIPEDIA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Coca- Cola_logo.svg) ，瀏覽日期 2012/02/24 。http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Coca- Cola_logo.svg 30, 32 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 31, 36, 37 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 40 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 40 本作品轉載自 Microsoft Office 2007 多媒體藝廊，依據 Microsoft 服務合約 及著作權法第 46 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。 Microsoft 服務合約 46

47. 版權聲明 頁碼作品授權條件作者 / 來源 44 Geograph ，作者： Basher Eyre 。 (http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/834743) ，瀏覽日期： 2012/02/24 。 該網站採取創用 CC 「姓名標示－相同方式分享」 2.0 版授權釋出。http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/834743創用 CC 「姓名標示－相同方式分享」 2.0 版 47