1. The mixed housing system and residential mobility in urban China: comparative study of Beijing and Guangzhou John R. Logan and Limei Li Department of Sociology Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences (S4) Brown University Dec 13, 2007

2. Outline Introduction: housing reform and the mixed housing system Residential mobility: who moves where and why? Comparative analysis based on the 2006 Beijing survey and 2005 Guangzhou survey data

3. Residential mobility Spatial adjustment model (individual need and preference) State persistence model (institutional factors) Combined housing availability/opportunities model –The housing availability provided by the state, the work unit or the developer triggers the residential mobility. –The housing availability of a given city is quite place- specific. Therefore the local housing context also influence the rate and pattern of residential mobility.

4. The different settings Beijing: the centrally planned economy still prevails. Guangzhou: the market sector is much more developed. –The assessment of the level of marketization: Guangdong Province stands first and Beijing ranks 14th on the list in 2000 (Fan et al., 2003).

5. Figure 4 The distribution of housing floor space completed in Beijing Source: Beijing Statistical Yearbook, 2005

6. Figure 5 The share of real estate development in housing floor space completed in Guangzhou Source: Guangzhou Statistical Yearbook, 1991-2006

7. Self- built Market purchase Economic purchase Public purchase Public rental Market rental others Beijing 31.213.952.1327.9325.086.413.29 Central city7.860.780.9930.6352.663.103.98 Inner suburb14.391.901.9539.0430.089.003.64 Outer suburb62.947.952.8812.756.294.662.53 Guangzhou 35.739.132.6022.5312.9111.595.52 Central city10.517.052.1640.7522.6610.196.69 Inner suburb29.318.813.4922.4312.0618.255.65 Outer suburb65.5411.362.115.774.746.174.30 National (cities and towns) 35.718.925.9623.5114.426.135.36 Source: 2000 Population Census Table 1 Tenure type and location in Beijing and Guangzhou

8. Figure 6 Sampled communities of 2006 Beijing survey

9. Figure 7 Sampled communities of 2005 Guangzhou survey

10. Moving frequencies since 1980 Urban coreInner suburb Frequencies 0149215 1130566 22095 3 or more112 Total300888 Moving frequencies since 1980Urban coreInner suburbOuter suburb Frequency 0 73262 1 21230075 2 15610084 3 514721 4 or more83018 Total500503200 Table 2 moving frequencies in Beijing since 1980 Table 3 Moving frequencies in Guangzhou since 1980

11. Previous housing location Current housing locationTotal Urban coreInner suburb Urban core107168275 Inner suburb38471509 Outer suburb21921 Total147658805 Previous housing location Current housing locationTotal Urban coreInner suburbOuter suburb Urban core 35219450 596 Inner suburb 5526240 357 Outer suburb 2084 86 Total 409456174 1039 Table 4 Comparison of current and previous housing location in Beijing Table 5 Comparison of current and previous housing location in Guangzhou

12. Table 7 Types of residential movement by housing source in Beijing (N, %column, %row) Source: 2006 Beijing survey

13. Work unitHousing bureauDeveloper Private homeowners Inheritance or confermentSelf-built Total N%N%N%N%N%N%N% Within the central city 8439.323.95064.9 14.2 13 8 30.539.24621.613.11241.43.42240.76.335233.9 100 From central city to inner suburb 2712.613.91316.9 6. 7 11 1 24.657.23114.616.013.4.51120.45.719418.7 100 From central city to outer suburb 000000388.476.0115.222.000011.92.0504.8 100 From inner suburb to central city 177.930.979.1 12.7 132.923.6146.625.526.93.623.73.6555.3 100 Within the inner suburb 8037.430.567.8 2. 3 9621.236.66530.524.8310.31.11222.24.626225.2 100 From inner to outer suburb 00011.3 2. 5 255.562.5136.132.513.42.5000403.8 100 From outer suburb to central city 0000001.250.01.550.00000002.2 100 Within the outer suburb 62.87.1000306.635.73215.038.11034.511.9611.17.1848.1 100 Total 214 100. 0 20.677100.0 7. 4 45 2 100. 0 43.5 21 3 100. 0 20.529 100. 0 2.854 100. 0 5.2 103 9 100. 0 100 Note: there is zero record for the move from outer to inner suburb; therefore it is excluded from the table. Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey Table 6 Types of residential movement by housing source in Guangzhou (N, %column, %row)

14. Table 10 who moved or did not move in Beijing ? Source: 2006 Beijing survey

15. Table 11 who moved or did not move in Guangzhou ? Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey

16. Summary and discussion Residential mobility in Chinese cities is closely related to the changing housing provision structure. The housing reform results in a mixed housing system and subsequently influences the residential mobility. State-redistributive and market-reward mechanisms are entangled in the process of residential relocation, very differently in Beijing and Guangzhou.

17. Figure 1,2 The share of real estate development in housing provision by investment and housing floor space Source: China Statistical Yearbook, 2006 (Includes rural self-built housing) Privatization of real estate investment

18. RentersOwnersTotal N%N%N% Within the central city 3819.46911.310713.3 From central city to inner suburb 3819.413021.316820.9 From inner suburb to central city 63.1325.3384.7 Within the inner suburb 10855.136359.647158.5 From outer suburb to central city 21.0002.2 From outer to inner suburb 42.0152.5192.4 Total 196100.0609100.0805100.0 Table 8 Types of residential movement by housing tenure in Beijing (N, %column, %row) Source: 2006 Beijing survey

19. RentersOwnersTotal N%N%N% Within the central city 9443.3%25831.4%35233.9% From central city to inner suburb 2310.6%17120.8%19418.7% From central city to outer suburb 41.8%465.6%504.8% From inner suburb to central city 167.4%394.7%555.3% Within the inner suburb 4922.6%21325.9%26225.2% From inner to outer suburb 52.3%354.3%403.8% From outer suburb to central city 002.2%2 Within the outer suburb 2612.0%587.1%848.1% Total 217100.0%822100.0%1039100.0% Note: there is zero record for the move from outer to inner suburb; therefore it is excluded from the table. Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey Table 9 Types of residential movement by housing tenure in Guangzhou (N, %column, %row)

20. Table 12 multinomial regression analysis for Beijing Note: ***indicates significant at 0.001, ** significant at 0.01, * significant at 0.05; The reference group is moved from the central city to the suburb Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey

21. Note: ***indicates significant at 0.001, ** significant at 0.01, * significant at 0.05 The reference group is moved from the central city to the suburb Source: 2005 Guangzhou survey Table 13 multinomial regression analysis for Guangzhou