1. Suburbanization of India’s Cities 1 Kala Seetharam Sridhar Public Affairs Centre Bangalore Conference on the 21 st Century Indian City: Towns, Metros and the Indian Economy University of California Berkeley and Indian Institute of Human Settlements Bangalore March 26, 2013

2. 2 Presentation Overview General and b-suburbanization Theory Bangalore and other cities’ suburbanization Estimated and calculated density gradients for India’s cities Determinants of population and employment suburbanization Policy implications

3. Suburbanization of Population and Jobs in India, 1981-2001 3 % 1981 Population suburban % 1991 Population suburban %2001 Population suburban % 1991 Jobs Suburban % 2001 Jobs Suburban Average20.6721.33 17.52% 21.76 17.94% Maximum92.5292.31 87.19% 92.85 88.20% Minimum0.180.05 0.19% 0.12 0.17% Std.Dev20.0820.14 0.18 20.11 0.18 Observations233374 336 374 336 Sources: Sridhar (2007), 2001 Census PCA and author’s analyses

4. Population Suburbanization in India’s Metropolitan Areas, 1981-01 4 % Population suburban, 1981 % Population suburban, 1991 % Population suburban, 2001 Delhi101121 Kolkata646065 MumbaiNA*2127 Chennai242934 Sources: Sridhar (2007), 2001 Census PCA and author’s analyses

5. 5 Suburbanization: Theoretical Framework Standard exponential population density function Gradient

6. Bangalore: Density Function, 1991 6 1991 municipal area: 126 sq km

7. Bangalore: Density Function, 2001 7 1991 municipal area: 226 sq km

8. Estimates of Population Density Functions for Bangalore, India, 1991 and 2001, Conventional City Center 8 Dependent Variable: Natural logarithm of population density, 1991 Coeff.Std.Err.t-ratio Intercept9.17***0.2833.21 Gradient (with conventional city center), 1991 0.10***0.033.49 R2R2 0.18 Dependent Variable: Natural logarithm of population density, 2001 Coeff.Std.Err.t-ratio Intercept10.75***0.1859.92 Gradient (with conventional city center), 2001 -0.05***0.013.64 R2R2 0.12 Number of observations=57 (wards) for 1991 regressions and 97 for 2001 regressions Source: Sridhar (2007)

9. Estimates of Population Density Functions for Bangalore, India, 1991 and 2001, New City Center 9 Dependent Variable: Natural logarithm of population density, 1991 Coeff.Std.Err.t-ratio Intercept10.77***0.2054.68 Gradient (with (ward 20) center) -0.06***0.02-3.94 R2R2 0.22 Dependent Variable: Natural logarithm of population density, 2001 Coeff.Std.Err.t-ratio Intercept10.79***0.1197.82 Gradient (with (ward 32) center) -0.05***0.01-6.83 R2R2 0.33 Number of observations=57 (wards) for 1991 regressions and 97 for 2001 regressions Source: Sridhar (2007)

10. 10 Two-Point Gradient Technique RcRc R LcLc L

11. Summary of Population Density Gradients (Calculated) 11 1981 1991 (Same subset as in 1981) % Change (Same subset of UAs) 1981-91 1981 (All UAs) 1991 (All UAs) % Change (all UAs) 1981-91 Average, all0.47830.4303 -10.04% 0.49330.4669-5.35% Maximum0.99100.9780 -1.31% 0.99100.99830.74% Minimum0.01170.0262 123.93% 0.01020.0072-29.41% Std.Dev0.24140.2397 -0.70% 0.26490.26971.79% Observations80 9415477 Average, metros* 0.24670.1963 -20.43% NA -20.44% Max, metros0.34750.2995 -13.81% NA -13.81% Min, metros0.18700.1244 -33.48% NA -33.48% Std.dev, metros 0.08780.0745 -15.15% NA -15.08% Source: Sridhar (2007)

12. 12 The Impact of Land Use Regulations on Population Suburbanization Dependent variable mean= 0.44 R-squared= 0.57 Adjusted R-squared = 0.50 Number of observations= 68 Source: Sridhar (2007)

13. 13 The Impact of Land Use Regulations on Employment Suburbanization Dependent variable mean= 0.43 R-squared= 0.48 Adjusted R-squared = 0.38 Number of observations= 68 Source: Sridhar (2007)

14. Estimation of Welfare Gains 14 Source: Brueckner & Sridhar 2012

15. Policy Implications Impact of various factors on suburbanization and spatial area of Indian cities Suburbanization of population and jobs Data limitations Conflict between suburban development and rural land uses 15

16. Thank you for your attention! Questions? You can write to me at kala@pacindia.org kala@pacindia.org 16