1. FUTURE WORKPLACE PROSPECTS IN GLOOMY ECONOMIC TIMES: Findings of the 1998, 2004 and 2010 National Surveys of Work and Lifelong Learning Presentation for Graduate Student Career Evening OISE/UT, February 2, 2012 D. W. LIVINGSTONE Canada Research Chair in Lifelong Learning and Work and Professor Emeritus, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education of the University of Toronto

2. ABSTRACT My presentation will focus on the relations between workers' practical knowledge and their real job requirements. There will be a summary of relevant findings from the national surveys of work and lifelong learning (WALL) in 1998, 2004 and 2010, as well as some comparisons with other related surveys. These findings offer a general context for thinking about future jobs and preparatory learning. The WALL surveys are the first anywhere to estimate the incidence of both paid and unpaid work in relation to both formal and informal learning. A rich array of workers’ formal and informal learning efforts has been found. Several gaps between workers’ knowledge and job requirements are documented from the WALL surveys and related case studies. Contrary to current popular views, the basic deficiency is not in workers’ skills and qualifications but in their opportunities to utilize them in their jobs as presently designed. Alternative job designs that modify pre-established job requirements are suggested as means to bridge the gaps with existing practical knowledge and to move toward more decent jobs for more increasingly qualified people.

3. Changing Nature of Work and Lifelong Learning http://wall.oise.utoronto.ca Changing Nature of Work and Lifelong Learning Research Network (www.wallnetwork.ca) Research funded by SSHRC under a series of Strategic Research Grants and the Canada Research Chairs Program Includes 1998, 2004 and 2010 representative national surveys of randomly selected respondents over 18 on many issues of working conditions and adult learning Also includes over 50 related case studies of different industry sectors, at-risk workers, unpaid work and informal learning

4. Figure 1 Forms of Activity and Learning Forms of Activity Paid Employment Unpaid Housework Community Volunteer Work Leisure (sleep, self-care, hobbies)    Forms of Learning Formal Schooling Further Education Informal Education Self-directed Learning

5. MAIN FINDINGS OF RECENT WORK AND LEARNING SURVEYS IN CANADA 1.EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS PRECARIOUS WORK IS INCREASING INCREASED ORGANIZATIONAL RESTRUCTURING, “JOB CHURNING”: DOWNSIZING MULTI-SKILLING COMPUTER USE IS NEARING UNIVERSALITY MAJORITY OF LABOUR FORCE NOW REQUIRE POST-SECONDARY CREDENTIAL TO GET JOB, “CREDENTIAL SOCIETY” HAS ARRIVED

6. 2. LEARNING CONDITIONS AMONG THE HIGHEST INCIDENCE OF POST-SECONDARY COMPLETION IN WORLD (UNIVERSITY AND COMMUNITY COLLEGE COMBINED).[LOWER FOR UNIVERSITY THAN COMMUNITY COLLEGE] FURTHER EDUCATION COURSE PARTICIPATION HAS INCREASED IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING POST-SECONDARY COMPLETION VERY EXTENSIVE JOB-RELATED AND GENERAL INFORMAL LEARNING [“ICEBERG”] WHILE FORMAL SCHOOLING AND FURTHER ADULT EDUCATION COURSE PARTICIPATION ARE QUITE CLOSELY RELATED, INCIDENCE OF INTENTIONAL INFORMAL LEARNING IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY RELATED TO EITHER ADULT AGE GROUPS VARY GREATLY IN FORMAL EDUCATION COURSE PARTICIPATION, MUCH LESS SO IN INCIDENCE OF INTENTIONAL INFORMAL LEARNING MAIN FINDINGS OF RECENT WORK AND LEARNING SURVEYS IN CANADA

7. 3. LEARNING-WORK RELATIONS LOWER FORMAL EDUCATION, HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT FORMAL EDUCATION ATTAINMENTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FASTER THAN FORMAL JOB ENTRY REQUIREMENTS, HENCE INCREASING UNDEREMPLOYMENT OF CREDENTIALS INCREASING FORMAL EDUCATION COMPLETION AND INCREASING UNDEREMPLOYMENT ARE OCCURING ACROSS ALL OCCUPATIONAL CLASSES. HIGHEST UNDEREMPLOYMENT IS AMONG SERVICE AND INDUSTRIAL WORKERS IN LIGHT OF THE EMPLOYED LABOUR FORCES’ HIGH LEVEL OF FORMAL EDUCATION ATTAINMENT, EXTENSIVE INFORMAL LEARNING ON THE JOB AND CHRONIC UNDEREMPLOYMENT, JOB DESIGN REFORMS MAY BE MORE PERTINENT THAN TRAINING REFORMS TO ADDRESS GAPS BETWEEN WORKERS’ KNOWLEGE AND JOB REQUIREMENTS MAIN FINDINGS OF RECENT WORK AND LEARNING SURVEYS IN CANADA

8. Section I Employment Conditions

9. Graph 1: Participation in Paid and Unpaid Work All Adults, 2010 (%) [ Sources: WALL, 2010.]

10. Graph 2: Percentage of Employed Labour Force in Precarious Jobs 2004-2010 (%) Sources : WALL 2004 survey (N=5733); WALL 2010 survey (N=1239).

11. Graph 3: Organizational Changes in Past 5 Years Employed labour force, 2004 -2010 Sources : WALL 2004 survey (N=5581); WALL 2010 survey (N=1256).

12. Graph 4: Computer Use in Canada Employed Labour Force, 1989–2010 (% using on job or at home) Year19891994200020042010 Use computer % 3851778594 N5,3326,13424,1301,7411,256 Sources: Statistics Canada 1989, 1994, 2000; WALL 2004 survey, WALL 2010 survey.

13. Graph 11: Required Educational Entry Credential Employed Labour Force, 1983-2010 Sources: CCS Survey, 1983; WALL 2004 Survey ; WALL 2010 Survey.

14. Table 5: Post-secondary Credential for Job by Occupational Class Wage and Salary Earners, 1983-2010 (% Requiring Post-secondary Credential) Sources: Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983 (N=1,482); WALL 2004 Survey (N=4,249).; WALL 2010 Survey (N=967). Occupational Class Post-Sec Required for Job 1983 Post-Sec Credential Required for Entry to Job 2004 Post-Sec Credential Required for Entry to Job 2010 Managers 756761 Supervisors 393144 Professional employees 878189 Service workers 163538 Industrial workers 102025 TOTAL 284553 N 14623877933

15. Graph 12: Post-secondary Credential for Job Entry Wage and Salary Earners, 1983-2010 Sources : Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983 (N=1462); WALL 2004 Survey(N=3887); WALL 2010 Survey (N= 933).

16. Section II Learning Conditions

17. Table 6: Post-secondary Educational Attainment by Occupational Class Wage and Salary Earners, 1983-2010 (% completed) Sources: Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983 (N=1,482); WALL 2004 Survey (N=4,249).; WALL 2010 Survey (N=967). Occupational Class 198320042010 Managers 417267 Supervisors 235646 Professional employees 858391 Service workers 165056 Industrial workers 123439 TOTAL 255664 N 14623877933

18. Graph 14: Post-secondary Educational Attainment Wage and Salary Earners, 1983-2010 (% completed) Sources : Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983 (N=1462); WALL 2004 Survey(N=3887); WALL 2010 Survey (N= 933).

19. Graph 15: Post-secondary Educational Attainment by Occupational Class Wage and Salary Earners, 1983-2010 (% completed) Sources: Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983 (N=1,482); WALL 2004 Survey (N=4,249).; WALL 2010 Survey (N=967).

20. Graph 16: Post-secondary Educational Attainment and Participation in Further Education, Employed Labour Force, 1983-2010 Sources: NALL 1998 Survey; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL2010 Survey.

21. Graph 17: Association between Level of Schooling and Participation in Further Education, Employed Labour Force, 1998-2004 (%) Sources: NALL 1998 Survey; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey.

22. Graph 18: Self-reported On-the-Job Training Time Required to Perform Job All Employees, 1983-2010 (%) Sources: CCS Survey, 1983; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey.

23. Table 7: Participation Rates in Informal Learning Related to Paid and Unpaid Activities, 1998–2010 (%) Sources: NALL 1998 Survey; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey. Area of informal learning Paid work Volunteer work Household work General interest Any informal learning 199820042010199820042010199820042010199820042010199820042010 8687908176907982 838288929195 962573412567953745191414368607928156590241965156590241965

24. Graph 20: Participation Rates in Paid and Unpaid Work and Informal Learning, 2010 (%) Sources: WALL 2010 Survey.

25. Graph 21: Time of Participation in Different Forms of Informal Learning* 1998-2010 (hours per week) [ Sources: NALL 1998 Survey; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey. * Participants only ]

26. YES NO 1 Have you done any informal learning to keep up with new general knowledge in your occupation during the last year?   2Informal learning of new job tasks?   3Learning about computers?   4Learning about new equipment?   5Organizational or managerial skills?   6Budgeting or financial management?   7Teamwork, problem solving, or communications skills?   8Learning about employment conditions or workers rights?   9Politics in the workplace?   10Language and literacy?   11Health and safety?   Exercise: Employment-related Informal Learning Now, please think about ANY INFORMAL LEARNING you have done during the last year OUTSIDE of formal or organized courses. You may spend a little time or a lot of time on it. This includes anything you do either by yourself or with other people to gain knowledge, skill or understanding. First, let's talk about any INFORMAL learning activities OUTSIDE OF COURSES that have some connection with your PAID EMPLOYMENT. This includes any INFORMAL learning you did by yourself or with others in the last year.

27. Graph 22: Topics of Employment-Related Informal Learning Employed Labour Force 1998-2010 (%) Sources: NALL 1998 Survey; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey.

28. Graph 23: Age and Participation in Further Education Course and Any Informal Learning Activities. All respondents, 2010 Source: WALL 2010 Survey (N=1965).

29. Section III Learning-Work Relations

30. Figure 2 Forms of Underemployment Forms of Underemployment Characteristics of Specific Forms of Underemployment Time-based  Unemployment (actively looking, discouraged workers)  Involuntary Temporary Employment (part-time, limited contract) Knowledge-based  Credential Gap  Performance Gap  Relevance Gap  Knowledge Gap Subjective  Personal Estimate of Match between Qualifications and Job Requirements Sources : Livingstone, 2009.

31. Graph 24: Educational Requirements for Job Entry and Formal Educational Attainments Wage and Salary Earners, 1983-2010 (% Post-secondary Credential) Sources : Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983 (N=1462); WALL 2004 Survey(N=3887); WALL 2010 Survey (N= 933).

32. Graph 25: Educational Attainment and Official Unemployment Rates 2004-2010* (%) Sources: WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey. * % of 25-64 years old adults, non full-time students, actively looking for jobs. ** Insufficient number for reliability. **

33. Graph 26: Educational attainment and part-time or seasonal employment Employed Labour Force, 2004-2010 (%) Sources: WALL 2010 Survey. *Currently employed, 25-64 years old, non full-time students, actively looking.

34. Graph 27: Credential Gap Wage and Salary Earners, 1998-2010 (%) Sources: NALL 1998 Survey (N=723); WALL 2004 Survey (N=3842); WALL 2010 Survey (N=935).

35. Graph 28: Performance Gap Wage and Salary Earners, 1998-2010 (%) Sources: NALL 1998 Survey (N=733); WALL 2004 Survey (N=3842); WALL 2010 Survey (N=938).

36. Graph 29: Relevance of Education to Job Wage and Salary Earners, 2004-2010 (%) Sources: WALL, 2004 Survey (N=4232), WALL, 2010 Survey (N=968).

37. Sources: WALL 2010 Survey (N=986). Graph 30: Knowledge Gap Wage and Salary Earners, 2010 (%)

38. Graph 31: Subjective Estimate of Match between Qualifications and Job Requirements Wage and Salary Earners, 1998-2010 (%) Sources: NALL 1998 Survey (N=747); WALL 2004 Survey (N=4179); WALL 2010 Survey (N=966).

39. Table 8: Credential Underemployment by Occupational Class of Employee 1983-2010 (% underemployed) Sources: Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey. OCCUPATIONAL CLASS198320042010 Managers1525 29 Supervisors21[43] 24 Professional employees1720 Service Workers2536 39 Industrial Workers33 36 Total [%]2531 N14613844934

40. Graph 32: Credential Underemployment 1983-2010 (% underemployed) Sources: Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983; WALL 2004 Survey; WALL 2010 Survey

41. Graph 33: Credential Underemployment by Occupational Class of Employee 1983-2010 (% underemployed) Sources: Canadian Class Structure Survey, 1983; WALL 2010 Survey

42. Graph 34: Selected Occupational Classes and Employment Experience by Credential Underemployment Employed Labour Force, 2010 Source: WALL, 2010.

43. OCCUPATIONAL CLASS HigherSameLower Managers57404 Supervisors52463 Professional employees52399 Service Workers49483 Industrial Workers444610 Total51436 Sources: WALL 2010 Survey (N=680). Table 9: Computer Skills Match by Occupational Class of Employee Wage and Salary Earners, 2010

44. Sources: WALL 2010 Survey (N=680). Graph 35: Computer Skills Match Wage and Salary Earners, 2010

45. Sources: WALL 2010 Survey (N=680). Graph 36: Computer Skills Match by Occupational Class of Employee Wage and Salary Earners, 2010

46. Sources: WALL 2004 Survey (N=967); WALL 2010 Survey (N=901). Graph 37: Computer Skills Match With Requirements of Job by Age Group Employed Labour Force, 2004-2010, (% overqualified)

47. Case Study Findings on Education-Job Match

48. “Just involve the people … This guy might run this machine every day for years. He will come up with ideas that will make his job easier for him and easier for management … Give people some sort of a sense of importance … rather than being treated like cattle.” (Ethan, a tool setter on an auto assembly line) (Source: Education and Jobs 2009) Selected Quote

49. These diverse case studies allow the following conclusions: Most participants were engaged in extensive intentional learning activities, with various degrees of relevance to their jobs. All participants were to greater or lesser degrees engaged in problem-solving during which they continuously acquired and reformulated their cognitive knowledge and abilities, and utilised them to modify their jobs. However, while many workers exercised some discretion in performing their jobs, they also reported limited opportunities to use their abilities in the design of their jobs and in organisational decision-making. This limitation applied especially to service workers and industrial workers (as exemplified by clerical and auto workers) as well as to disabled workers. Case study findings on education-job match:

50. Source : Advocates for Community-based Training and Education for Women (ACTEW) and New Approaches to Lifelong Learning (NALL) Network. SKILLS AND KNOWLEDGE PROFILE. Toronto: Centre for Study of Education and Work, OISE/UT. 1998. (Available from www.nall.ca “Resources” at the bottom of the page including Coach's Manual)www.nall.ca Exercise: Skills Inventory in Local Paid Workplaces

51. GENERIC SUGGESTIONS FOR DEVELOPING PROFILES OF JOB- RELATED INFORMAL LEARNING What this section is about You have probably had to list your work experience on a job application. This is a little different. We want to help you identify many skills you learned on each job by just doing your job. If you are not employed, please think about volunteer work you have done. How to complete this section This is about your current and former jobs. Please list: job title (e.g. Bookkeeper) skills learned (e.g. preparation of payroll) how you learned these skills (e.g. from co-workers and supervisor)

52. Step 1 Job title and length of time Put down the job title and a short description to make it clear what you did. Include approximately how long you have been (or were) on that job. Step 2 Skills learned Most of us have trouble naming our skills. There is a list of skills you may choose from but, keep in mind, that this is not a final list and there are MANY more. Note any others which come to mind as you read through the examples so you won’t forget them. Step 3 How you learned Here’s an example of how John and Anne learned to use the computer program, Windows. It was not a job requirement, but they both learned it on the job. John explains: “Well, a few of us would have some time at work to look at the Windows background of the presses software, and we got to wondering how it worked. So Anne started fooling around with it and she taught the rest of us what she figured out.” So John learned from a coworker, Anne. Anne learned through experimenting and trial and error. You may choose from the list provided or write your own method for learning that particular skill. You are now ready to complete this section. Remember, this is your chance to do an inventory of the knowledge and skills you have developed on the job. Feel free to use the back of the form if you need more room.

53. Choose From the List Below the Skills you Learned on Your Current or Most Recent Job □ operating tools/equipment □ assembling □ installing □ building □ repairing □ cleaning □ sketching □ painting □ keyboarding □ cooking □ training □ refinishing □ raising animals □ sewing □ chopping □ gardening □ organizing □ packaging □ massaging □ weaving □ monitoring □ measuring □ sculpting □ baking □ tending to the sick □ taping □ editing □ writing □ calculating □ budgeting □ analyzing □ driving □ listening □ examining □ reading □ creating □ coordinating □ translating □ filing □ reporting □ presenting □ data entry □ searching □ inventing □ trouble shooting □ designing □ classifying □ counting □ internet surfing □ acting □ cycling □ flying □ taking inventory □ serving □ teaching □ training □ motivating □ talking □ empathizing □ explaining □ building a database □ selling □ modelling □ singing □ playing an instrument □ dancing □ running □ defending □ giving feedback □ encouraging □ negotiating □ evaluating □ public speaking □ counselling □ advocating □ lobbying □ giving advice □ other _________________________

54. Current or Most Recent Job *******************

55. FUTURE LEARNING PLANS What this section is about At this point, we hope you are feeling pretty good about the extent of knowledge and skills you already have. Now we would like you to start thinking about the future. You have a lot going for you, whatever you decide to do! How to complete this section Before you begin this section, think about the following questions: Given all you have been thinking about so far, what kind of paid work, study or personal learning you want to do in the future? What knowledge and skills will you need to fulfill your future plans? Make yourself some notes on the back of the page if you would find that helpful. Now you are ready to complete this section. 1. What are your employment plans for the next 5 years?  Find a job Upgrade skills to stay in your current job,  Develop skills to get a new job  Change jobs  Ask for a raise  Other ____________________________________ 2. What are your plans regarding personal interests?  Start a family Retire  Move homes or to another city  Take up new hobbies  Go back to school  Fix your home  Travel Other _______________________________

56. 3. What courses or training programs will help you get the skills you need? (You can check more than one answer)  Complete secondary education  ESL training  Workplace (in-house) Training  Computer training  Complete university education  Community courses/training  Union Courses  Language training  Obtain certification from:  Trade school  Community college  Complete apprenticeship program  Other ______________________ ___________________________ 4. How could your employer assist you?  Fund trade school course  Provide workplace training  Provide scholarship  Employer pay for course  Authorization to attend  Providing replacement workers  Other ____________________ 5. How could your union assist you?  Provide union training  Develop contract language on training  Set up jointly managed training funds  Other _________________________ 6. How could your training program assist you?  Provide accreditation  Keep you informed about for the program upcoming programs  Making agreements with other training programs.  Other ______________________________ FUTURE LEARNING PLANS (continued)

57. Alternatives

58. Some guidelines for better utilisation of the actual and potential abilities of the labour force: recognise that human thought and effort is the fundamental resource that sustains production and also cultural, political and social development; value formal education for its role in forming character and abilities. It is an internationally agreed right to which everyone is entitled. The current emphasis on the instrumental economic function of education is a distortion of its essential purpose; value experience as a more important source of learning in work than formal education. It is a well-established economic principle that learning by experience during paid work has the advantage that there is no loss of production as happens during formal training off the job. The experience of other kinds of (unpaid) work also enriches and is enriched by performing a paid job; value people for their rich reserves of ability, notably the ability continuously to learn by experience, acquired during the experience of all forms of paid and unpaid activities. In the course of learning by experience, abilities are acquired to address the manifold problems that arise in personal and social life; and recognise that optimal conditions for enhancing human abilities are when experience is sustained in time and progressive in scope, as when formal education begins to endow students with the abilities for critical independent thinking, when the levels of employment are stable, and when the design of jobs allows workers to exercise judgement. Utilisation of the Actual and Potential abilities of the labour force

59. Several general normative principles essential for developing feasible organisational alternatives for sustainable productive work compatible with enhancing human abilities: productive activities should be reconciled with the needs to support future generations without compromising the ecosystem; the right to a decent job, that is, to make a living through work that permits a full use of human capabilities in dignity and security; participatory democracy, that is, decisions should involve all who are engaged in production; and equitable opportunities for those from all social backgrounds (economic class of origin, age, gender, race or with a disability) to use their abilities. Principles for Organisational Alternatives

60. Job Design Paid Work Redistribution (less 50+ hour jobs, more hours and benefits for <30 hour jobs) Real Democratized Technical Design and Social Authority (participatory design, co-determined decision-making) Flex-time Scheduling Responsive to Work-Life Balance Issues, (based partly on recognition of unpaid work (housework, community volunteer work) responsibilities, and further redistribution of female and male responsibility for them) New Forms of Socially Useful Paid Employment (new sustainable [green, renewable] products, environmental clean-up) Education and Training Prior Learning Assessment and Recognition (PLAR) (portfolio development, demonstration, challenge exams, case studies, presentations) More Co-ordinated Mentoring by Senior Workers (including those phasing into retirement) Some Current Job Design and Training Options

61. Conclusion Educational systems should and likely will continue to try to improve the relevance of their programmes in response to growing economic and social demands. Formal educational qualifications may continue to be primary proxy criteria for entry into many jobs. But economic production would be more effective and efficient if the current labour forces were more highly valued for their capabilities to develop and use reserves of abilities in decent jobs. Economic reforms, including redistribution of paid work and workplace democratisation, are more sustainable measures to address these systemic limits than appeals for still greater learning efforts by already highly formally, educated knowledgeable and continually learning labour forces.

62. Professional training and development personnel should make it a high a priority to take steps to ascertain the current formal and informal skill and knowledge profiles of those they provide information on relevant further formal training and development courses and programs. It may well be that some current formal training recommendations are either redundant or inefficient in relation to previously attained skills and knowledge. Conclusion

63. Livingstone, D.W. (Ed.). (2009). Education and Jobs: Exploring the Gaps. Toronto: University of Toronto Press. Livingstone, D.W. (Ed.). (2010). Lifelong Learning in Paid and Unpaid Work: Survey and Case Study Findings. London: Routledge. Livingstone, D.W., & Raykov, M. (2010). WALL Papers: Resources from the SSHRC Collaborative Research Initiative on the Changing Nature of Work and Lifelong Learning in the New Economy. Toronto: Centre for the Study of Education and Work. (Available at www.wallnetwork.ca.) Livingstone, D. W.(2010) 'Job requirements and workers' learning: formal gaps, informal closure, systemic limits', Journal of Education and Work, 23(3), 207-231. Livingstone, D.W., Smith, D.E., & Smith, W. (2011). Manufacturing Meltdown: Reshaping Steel Work. Black Point, NS: Fernwood Publishing. Clark, R., D.W. Livingstone and H. Smaller (Eds.). (2012). Teacher Learning and Power in the Knowledge Society. Rotterdam: Sense Publishing. References

64. Contact Information Dr. D.W. Livingstone Canada Research Chair in Lifelong Learning and Work Professor Emeritus, Department of Sociology and Equity Studies Ontario Institute for Studies in Education of the University of Toronto 252 Bloor St. W. Toronto, Ontario M5S 1V6 Email: dwlivingstone@gmail.comdwlivingstone@gmail.com Phone/fax: 905 271-2755