1. Elections

2. Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time Party Role in Elections Party Role in Elections The Nominating Processes The Nominating Processes –Watershed changes ’72, 90s, ’07(?) 1968 Presidential Election 1968 Presidential Election –(smoky back rooms) –No binding primaries

3. Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time Party Role in Elections Party Role in Elections The Nominating Processes The Nominating Processes –Watershed changes ’72, 90s, ’07(?) 1976 Presidential Election 1976 Presidential Election –Carter and the early Primaries –Win big up front and then build a campaign

4. Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time Party Role in Elections Party Role in Elections The Nominating Processes The Nominating Processes –Watershed changes ’72, 90s, ’07(?) 2000 Presidential Election 2000 Presidential Election –Bush and his millions –McCain and his dynamism –Frontloading – Carter path closed?

5. Presidential Election Processes: Evolving through time Party Role in Elections Party Role in Elections The Nominating Processes The Nominating Processes –Watershed changes ’72, 90s, ’07(?) –2008 Presidential Election –Frontloading on steroids

6. Nomination processes Primaries Primaries –Open poll sites –Secret ballots –3 types  Closed Primary  Open Primary  Blanket Primary Caucuses Caucuses –Open selection –Precinct meetings –Hand vote or voice vote

7. Electoral College 50 Separate elections 50 Separate elections Each state gets a delegation of votes Each state gets a delegation of votes –2 for just being a state –?? For the population of the state  53 for CA –Number of Electors equals the state’s delegation in the US House and the US Senate combined  55 for CA

8. Electoral College Process Continued One long-distance vote by Electors One long-distance vote by Electors –Electors meet in December in State Capitols and cast votes Report their votes to Congress by currier Report their votes to Congress by currier Winner must win a majority of Electoral College Winner must win a majority of Electoral College –No second chance balloting If no Majority winner, it goes to the HOUSE If no Majority winner, it goes to the HOUSE –Each state votes as a whole – one vote per state

9. Electoral College Standard distribution of Electors: 48 States State wide election State wide election Winner-take-all distribution Winner-take-all distribution –Winner of CA gets the whole 55 Electors

10. Electoral College Alternate System: Maine and Nebraska 2 Electors go to state-wide winner 2 Electors go to state-wide winner 1 Elector goes to each Congressional district winner 1 Elector goes to each Congressional district winner

11. Electoral College Alternate System: Maine and Nebraska Illustration: State with 4 total Electoral Votes: Illustration: State with 4 total Electoral Votes: State wide vote: Rep. 55% Dem. 45% State wide vote: Rep. 55% Dem. 45% –Republicans get 2 Electors for carrying state. District 1 vote: Rep. 65% Dem 35% District 1 vote: Rep. 65% Dem 35% –Republicans get 1 Elector for District 1 District 2 vote: Rep. 45% Dem 55% District 2 vote: Rep. 45% Dem 55% –Democrats get 1 Elector for District 2 Final State-wide outcome: Final State-wide outcome: –Republicans: 3 Electoral College votes –Democrats 1 Electoral College votes

12. Electoral College Alternate System: Illustration from 2004 election: (hypothetical) Illustration from 2004 election: (hypothetical) State wide vote: Solid Democratic victory State wide vote: Solid Democratic victory –Democrats get 2 Electors for carrying state. 17 Districts vote Republican majorities 17 Districts vote Republican majorities –Republicans get 17 Electors 36 Districts vote Democratic majorities 36 Districts vote Democratic majorities –Democrats get 36 Electors Final State-wide outcome: Final State-wide outcome: –Republicans: 17 Electoral College votes –Democrats 38 Electoral College votes

13. Electoral College Who are Electors? ???? Who are Electors? ???? –How are they selected? –State delegates nomination to the winning party –Rules for final allocation vary by state and by party –Secretary of State’s web declaration Secretary of State’s web declarationSecretary of State’s web declaration

14. How does California select its electors? (from Secretary of State’s Web Page) On or before October 1 of the presidential election year, each party's nominee must file a list containing the names, addresses, and telephone numbers of the 55 electors pledged to him/her. Each party determines its own method for selecting electors. On or before October 1 of the presidential election year, each party's nominee must file a list containing the names, addresses, and telephone numbers of the 55 electors pledged to him/her. Each party determines its own method for selecting electors. In the Democratic Party, each congressional nominee and each US Senate nominee (determined by the last two elections) designates one elector. Elections Code § 7100 In the Democratic Party, each congressional nominee and each US Senate nominee (determined by the last two elections) designates one elector. Elections Code § 7100

15. How does California select its electors? (from Secretary of State’s Web Page) In the Republican Party, the nominees for Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Controller, Attorney General, Secretary of State, U.S. Senate at the last two elections, Assembly Republican leader, Senate Republican leader, all elected officers of the Republican State Central Committee, national committeemen/women, President of Republican County Central Committee Chairmen’s Association, and chair or President of each Republican volunteer organization officially recognized by the Republican State Central Committee (RSCC) shall be electors. U.S. Senators, Representatives in Congress and persons holding office of trust or profit of the U.S. may not be electors. Any additional vacancies shall be filled by appointment of the chair of Republican State Central Committee according to Republican State Central Committee bylaws. Republican State Central Committee Chair must file the list with the Secretary of State by October 1, 2008. Elections Code § 7300 In the Republican Party, the nominees for Governor, Lt. Governor, Treasurer, Controller, Attorney General, Secretary of State, U.S. Senate at the last two elections, Assembly Republican leader, Senate Republican leader, all elected officers of the Republican State Central Committee, national committeemen/women, President of Republican County Central Committee Chairmen’s Association, and chair or President of each Republican volunteer organization officially recognized by the Republican State Central Committee (RSCC) shall be electors. U.S. Senators, Representatives in Congress and persons holding office of trust or profit of the U.S. may not be electors. Any additional vacancies shall be filled by appointment of the chair of Republican State Central Committee according to Republican State Central Committee bylaws. Republican State Central Committee Chair must file the list with the Secretary of State by October 1, 2008. Elections Code § 7300

16. Electoral College Effects: State-by-state election strategies State-by-state election strategies –Focus on Large States –Focus on states with close elections Potential ODD outcomes Potential ODD outcomes –Narrow victory in relatively few LARGE states could spell victory for a candidate with only minority popular vote (1960) –In a very close race with close distributions in most states the candidate with the most small states wins even with a minority of popular votes (2000) “My vote really doesn’t count” attitudes prevalent “My vote really doesn’t count” attitudes prevalent

17. Another proposal: Electoral College reform -- End-run State-by-state laws committing to allocate Electors based on National Popular vote instead of state-by-state vote. State-by-state laws committing to allocate Electors based on National Popular vote instead of state-by-state vote. Requires enough states to make up 270 electoral votes to be effective Requires enough states to make up 270 electoral votes to be effective Not making much progress yet Not making much progress yet

18. Congressional Elections Members of the HOUSE, (Representatives) almost always win (incumbency advantage) Members of the HOUSE, (Representatives) almost always win (incumbency advantage) –Name recognition –Franking –Ease of fund-raising Senate not so safe Senate not so safe –Higher profile opponents –Higher profile incumbents can’t hide controversial stance

19. State/Local Elections –Name Recognition –Party –Opinion leader’s endorsement Non-partisan Elections Non-partisan Elections –Personal contact –Name recognition

20. Political Action Committees PACS (Political Action Committees) PACS (Political Action Committees) Evil Special Interests? OR… Organized individuals pursuing their interests?