1. Campaign Financing and Election Outcome
A study of the correlation between fundraising in the U.S. and popular votes in presidential elections

2. Overview Project Background Goals/Objectives Preliminary Comparison
Brainstorming
Federal Election Commission
Goals/Objectives
Preliminary Comparison
Election 2000 and 2004
Relationship Findings
Election 2008
Primaries
Republican Candidates
Democratic Candidates
General Election
Total Party Contributions
Electoral College
Conclusions
Limitations and Future Work

3. Background Election 2008 in the media constantly
First Presidential Election in 12 years with no previous ties to the White House
General Public knowledge about Campaign Financing
Federal Election Commission

4. Federal Election Commission
Ensures that candidates and convention committees requesting public funds have satisfied the eligibility requirements.
Reviews submitted contributions
Audits all public funding recipients to ensure that the funds were spent in compliance with the law

5. Presidential Candidates and the Federal Election Commission
Only candidates seeking nomination by a political party for the office of President are eligible to receive primary matching funds
A candidate must establish eligibility by showing broad-based public support: must raise in excess of $5,000 in each of at least 20 states ($100,000).
Although an individual may contribute up to $2,300 to a primary candidate, only a maximum of $250 per individual applies toward the $5,000 threshold in each state.

6. Presidential Candidates must agree to the following:
Limit campaign spending for all primary elections to $10 million (plus a cost-of-living adjustment COLA). This is called the national spending limit.
Limit campaign spending in each state to $200,000 plus COLA, or to a specified amount based on the number of voting age individuals in the state (plus COLA), whichever is greater.
Limit spending from personal funds to $50,000.

7. Goals Presidential Elections 2000 and 2004 Presidential Election 2008
Show relationship between Campaign Contributions and Popular Vote by state
Presidential Election 2008
Predict Primary Election using Funds Raised from Quarters 1 and 2 of 2007
Speculate General Election Results

8. Objectives
Inform average voter about the relationship between presidential campaign funding and political race outcome
Illustrate a relationship between popular votes and campaign funding

9. Election 2000

10. Election 2000

11. Election 2004

12. Election 2004

13. Republican Candidates 2008
Totals
Romney: 30,859,721
Giuliani: 30,590,059
McCain: 20,900,595

14. Democratic Candidates 2008
Totals
Clinton: 47,669,977
Obama: 42,953,612
Edwards: 18,213,607

15. Democratic Primary Outcome
Electoral Votes
Clinton: 284
Obama: 167
Edwards: 87
Considered candidate that rose the most money in each state the winner
The election of delegates to the Democratic National Convention is handled differently in every state – but all consider state population as factor
To account for population, we used the number of electoral votes to determine the primary winner

16. Republican Primary Outcome
Electoral Votes
Guiliani: 237
Romney: 231
McCain: 70
Considered candidate that rose the most money in each state the winner
The election of delegates to the Republican National Convention is handled differently in every state – but all consider state population as factor
To account for population, we used the number of electoral votes to determine the primary winner

17. General Election 2008
Comparison of Republican Candidates vs. Democratic Candidates Funds Raised
Totals:
Democrats: $108,837,196
Republicans: $82,355,375

18. General Election Outcome
Total Projected Electoral Votes:
Democrats (Blue): 358/538 = 67%
Republicans (Red): 180/538 = 33%

19. What about percentage error from past elections?
Remember? States where candidates with more campaign contributions didn’t win the popular vote
In 2000, the percentage difference by electoral vote is 26%
In 2004, the percentage difference by electoral vote is 14%
Average is 20%
So, assuming +/- 20% error…
Democratic electoral votes: 250 – 466
Republican electoral votes: 36 – 288
Votes required to win election: 270
Chance of Clinton victory: 91%
Chance of Giuliani victory: 7%
Chance of no electoral winner*: 2%
2000 – 15 states
2004 – 8 states
* The new House of Representatives votes between the top three candidates to select a president.

20. Conclusions 2008 Presidential Race
Democratic Party nominee: Hillary Clinton
Republican Party nominee: Rudy Giuliani
Interestingly, neither of these candidates raised the largest amount of money in Q1 and Q2 of 2007
Winning in highly populated states counts!
In general election and Republican primary, state winner takes all

21. Conclusions Population Counts!
2004 Presidential Election Results by State
2004 Presidential Election Results by Population Cartogram
Source:

22. Conclusions 44th President of the United States: Hillary Clinton Why?
Clinton will win Democratic primary due to support in populous states
General election relies heavily on patterns from 2000 and 2004: popular vote in ~80% states went to the candidate whose party raised more money in that state

23. Limitations
Problem: The primary/caucus process varies for each state and party
Solution: Study the primary/caucus process for the 2008 election and develop a more complex formula for determining the winner

24. Limitations
Problem: Our study does not consider the impact of 3rd party and Independent candidates on the general election
Problem: Our study only includes the three front-runners for each party in primary predictions
Solution: Include additional candidates in our study.
Ralph Nader won 3% of the popular vote in 2000.

25. Limitations
Problem: Our analysis relies on pattern established by two quarters of fundraising
Presidential primaries will take place after four quarters of fundraising
General election contributions will also include federal matching funds
Solution: Study contributions to 2004 presidential candidates for the first two quarters of 2003

26. Conclusions Suggestions for similar projects Simplify your problem!
Create a map template
Study this subject closer to
election, if possible

27. Future Work
Our study does not account for contributions and voting at the county level, only the state level.
2004 Presidential Election Results by State
2004 Presidential Election Results by County
Source:

28. Future Work Revisit this project in early January 2008
Fundraising figures for all four quarters of 2007
Directly before state primaries begin
Calculate federal matching funds for Democratic and Republican nominees

29. Future Work Use this data to plan a campaign trail
Campaign staffers decide to plan visits to states where races are very close
Our Suggestions:
(W) denotes the candidate currently predicted to win
Democratic Primary
California is very close between Obama and Clinton (W)
Iowa is very close between Obama and Edwards (W)
Republican Primary
Illinois is very close between all candidates. McCain (W)
Florida is very close between Romney and Guiliani (W)

30. Sources Federal Election Commission (FEC) http://www.fec.gov
United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Center for Responsive Politics
Maps and cartograms of the 2004 US presidential election results (University of Michigan)
Election 2004 Results

31. Questions?

32. Calculating Likely Election Winner
Clinton
For Clinton to lose, number of electoral votes is between 250 and 269.
Clinton’s possible number of electoral votes according to analysis is between 250 and 466.
Clinton’s chances of losing ( )/( ) ~ 0.09 (9%)
Conversely, Clinton’s changes of winning = 91%
Giuliani
For Giuliani to win, number of electoral votes is between 270 and 288.
Giuliani’s possible number of electoral votes according to analysis is between 36 and 288.
Giuliani’s chances of winning = ( )/(288-36) ~ 0.07 (7%)
Chances of no electoral winner: 100 – Clinton’s chances (91) – Giuliani’s chances (7) = 2%