1. Form #28
Path to Victory
Expected Turnout: XXX, XXX Votes
Vote Goal: 50% + 1 of Expected Turnout
Increase Republican Turnout to 66%- In 2010 GOP turnout was 52%. That was lower than most surrounding districts in the state. GOP turnout has gone as high as 64% for the 2006 race.
Win the City of Mars by 3,000 votes
Mars is a Democratic city that has a history of supporting Republican candidates
Registration is 61,000 Dem vs. 30,000 GOP
The 2008 result for Mars was:-17k Sample Opponent vs. 14k Sample Republican
Increase Republican Turnout to 66%-In 2010 GOP turnout was 52%. That was lower than most surrounding district in the state. GOP turnout has gone as high as 64% for the 2004 race.

2. Form #28
Path to Victory (cont.)
Split the Independent vote- It is estimated that Sample Republican garnered only 38% Independent voters in the 2010 race with little voter contact into this section of the electorate. Moving that up to 50% will mean a flip of 4,000 voters.
Double vote in the Democratic Party- With his tax intensive message it is estimated that Sample Republican got 9% of the Democratic vote in the 2008 race. Doubling that to 18% will mean a flip of 8,000 voters. Our opponent has spent more than a decade in office there are many Democrats that are now willing to endorse Sample Republican. It is essential that we combine softer messaging and an active community outreach operation to make this an achievable goal.
Paid media budget= $1.35 million
Fundraising goal= $2 million

3. Form #28
Path to Victory (cont.)
Polling- The race currently stands 46% Our Candidate to 44% Our Opponent Name according to the survey conducted September 7th and 8th 2012 by Polling Firm Name.
What our Poll tells us to do-
According to our polling our name ID is currently underperforming, while our opponent’s name ID is net unfavorable. We must shift from fully attacking our opponent to mixing in some positive messaging about us.
We tested our attack on our opponent’s stock holdings and it has come back as being ineffective at 52 less likely. We are re-working our plan to include an attack on his outsourcing of jobs, which scored a 72 less likely.
Additionally we are unknown among women in the eastern part of the district. We will increase our mail plan in that part and increase our TV buy as well to overcome that.
We have moved +8 points since our July survey among seniors. We will continue the current course on our direct mail to seniors.