1. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe Camilla Geels 1 and Carsten Ambelas Skjøth 2 1 Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark. 2 National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, UK. With contributions from Ole Hertel, Jesper H. Christensen, Steen Gyldenkærne, Thomas Ellermann, Helle Vibeke Andersen, Jørgen Brandt Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Denmark.

2. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Link between the trends in human population and NH 3 use throughout the twentieth century: From: How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the worldHow a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world Erisman et al., Nature Geoscience 1, 636 - 639 (2008). The Haber-Bosch process “the most important invention of the 20th century” made it possible to produce ammonia (NH 3 ) from hydrogen and nitrogen ammonia hydrogennitrogen Converts nitrogen into a bioavailable form!

3. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 NH 3 mission changes globally and in Europe: European Environment Agency (EEA).

4. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 BUT: NH 3 emissions from agricultural production are very sensitive to climatic drivers (temperature, water availability). A central question in the ECLAIRE project is: “Will climate warming increase NH 3 emissions and to what extend will this hinder NH 3 mitigation efforts?” A different approach is needed. Current regional CTM studies of NH 3 : Annual emission inventories Based on national emissions factors. Standard temporal profiles.

5. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Was originally developed for Denmark [1,2] – now extended to part of Europe [3]. Based on: 1.) 16 different functions describing the temporal variation in NH 3 emissions from various activities. 2.) information on number and type of animals, type of crop, sale of manure/fertilizer etc. So this is required on as high spatial resolution as possible. The Danish Dynamic NH 3 emission model [1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306, doi:10.1029/2003JD003895. [2] Gyldenkærne et al (2005) A dynamical ammonia emission parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459. [3] Skjøth et al (2011). Spatial and temporal variations in ammonia emissions - a freely accessible model code for Europe: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 5221-5236.

6. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Backbone of the dynamic ammonia model [1] Point sources: emission from stables and manure storages depends on outdoor/indoor temperature and ventilation [2] –Pigs/chicken requires a high minimum temperature –Cattle manages relatively low temperatures The farmers use heating/ventilation to keep the animals happy … Area sources: emissions from agricultural fields depends on e.g. crop growth/application of manure described by Gauss functions [2] – also a function of T. Local temperature provided by meteorological data used in the CTM model. Usually scaled to official annual emissions, so only intra-annual (seasonal/diurnal) emission variation used…. [1] Skjøth et al,(2004) Implementing a dynamical ammonia emission parameterization in the large-scale air pollution model ACDEP109, D06306, doi:10.1029/2003JD003895. [2] Gyldenkærne et al (2005) A dynamical ammonia emission parameterization for use in air pollution models, JGR, 110, D07108, doi:10.1029/2004JD005459.

7. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Example from Denmark – change in seasonal profile due to development in agricultural sector (1985-2003) [4] Main activities1985 [kTon N] 1990 [kTon N] 1995 [kTon N] 2000 [kTon N] 2003 [kTon N] Pig houses19.78718.67417.97918.578 Cattle barns10.92610.6149.1049.598 Storage13.93612.29811.12510.1769.136 Crops13.17413.01011.1251145311.476 Manure early spring6.7226.0426.1205.9414.330 Manure in crops5.4916.68011.29614.18314.129 Manure summer8.1067.3963.2071.834512 Manure autumn6.2324.8261.8061.114640 Manure late autumn13.25610.3064.1561.429640 Mineral fertilizer7.8708.6627.6065.5824.437 Grassing animals2.5912.4132.5002.3702.257 Ammonia treatment6.55110.2106.6472.471661 Traffic0.0530.1060.9931.8281.989 Total114.695111.23694.19686.55680.391 [4] Skjøth et al (2008), JAWMA, Footprints on ammonia concentrations from Environmental regulations, JAWMA, 58: 1158-1165. Change in Danish regulation Fig 1.Fig 2. Fig 3.

8. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Application of the Danish Ammonia Modelling System: DAMOS [5,6,7] -regional to local scales. 150 km x 150 km 50 km x 50 km ~ 17 km x 17 km ~ 6 km x 6 km 400 m x 400 m DEHM [6] OML-DEP [7] [5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647. [6] Brandt et al (2012). An integrated model study for Europe and North America using the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model with focus on intercontinental transport of air pollution: Atmos. Environ., Atmos. Environ., 53, 156-176. [7] Sommer et al (2009) Validation of model calculation of ammonia deposition in the neighbourhood of a poultry farm using measured NH3 concentrations and N deposition: Atmos. Environ., 43, 915-920. Covered by existing emission model

9. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Weekly NH 3 concentration at Lindet. [5] 20052009200720062008 Strong seasonal cycle captured by both DAMOS and DEHM [5] Overestimating some spring peaks [5] Week-to-week variability also captured [5] DAMOS closer to measured level [5] DAMOS: Corr=0.72 Bias=0.11 DEHM Corr=0.67 Bias=0.64 [5] Geels et al, (2012) Improved modelling of atmospheric ammonia over Denmark using the coupled modelling system DAMOS: Biogeosciences, 9, 2625-2647.

10. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 The new sensitivity study carried out in ECLAIRE (WP6): Analysing the effect of temperature variations: -From location to location -Due to climate change The dynamic NH 3 emissions model forced with hourly bias corrected climate data (based on a data fusion of ENSEMBLES climate data and reanalyses meteorology). New paper in ACP: The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe by Skjøth and Geels Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128, 2013

11. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Test case: A storage related to a pig stable facility with 1000 animals - with the same production methods as in Denmark. Placed throughout the domain – so forced with different temperatures.

12. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 AreaDK Emission [kg NH3/year]506 Difference [%]5 AreaUK Emission [kg NH3/year]579 Difference [%]21 AreaFR Emission [kg NH3/year]577 Difference [%]20 AreaGE Emission [kg NH3/year]374 Difference [%]-22 AreaGE Emission [kg NH3/year]541 Difference [%]13 AreaIT Emission [kg NH3/year]626 Difference [%]30 Spatial variations in NH 3 emission (standard Danish storage moved to other locations). Note the diff. within GE 2007 Relative to mean 2006-2010 at Tange in Dk. mountainous regions

13. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Annual emission from storage in a pig production facility with 1000 animals using average Danish production methods and exposed to different European climatic conditions in the years 2007 and 2010 – important for emission ceilings …

14. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 The climate ”penalty” on NH 3 emissions (standard Danish storage moved to other locations). 2087 relative to 2007 2087 relative to 2010

15. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Conclusions and outlook (1): Today – often one national emission factor is used (for several year). This [6] study shows: Emissions can vary with 20% by changing geographical location within a country due to overall variations in climate. Largest uncertainties are seen for large countries like UK, Germany and France. Warmer years give higher NH 3 emissions than colder years. Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%. Climate change will in general increase the emissions with 0-40%, in central to northern Europe – so yes the increase in emissions might hinder mitigations effects…. The “climate penalty” has political implications for international regulation both now and in the future – how should we define and evaluate emissions ceilings and should “warmer” countries be allowed to emit more …? [6] The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe Skjøth and Geels (2013) Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 117–128.

16. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Possible way to include this in models: include dynamical calculations of the ammonia emissions. The dynamic NH 3 model will be part of a proposed architecture for handling the climate-dependence of NH 3 fluxes in models. On-going work in the ECLAIRE project. Described in the paper: Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition, By Sutton et al., Phil. Trans. Royal Society B vol. 368 no. 1621, 2013. Conclusions and outlook (2):

17. ACCENT-plus Symposium, Urbino 2013 Thank you for your attention! - and contact us if you would like to get the code. Acknowledgements: ECLAIRE (FP7), ECOCLIM (Dan. Res. Council) and VKR-foundation Contacts: Carsten Ambelas Skjøth (c.skjoth@worc.ac.dk) & Camilla Geels (cag@dmu.dk)cag@dmu.dk