1. 1 WO 13: California Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report Energy Division California Public Utilities Commission August 4, 2014

2. 2 Agenda TimeTopic 1:00 PMIntroduction – Energy Division 1:05 – 1:50PMCalifornia Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report Presentation– DNV GL 1:50 PM – 2:00PMAdjourn – Energy Division

3. Timeline 8/4/2014 Webinar and Report Posted 8/18/2014 Comments due on PDA 9/1/2014 Final report posted 3

4. PDA – Public Document Area http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/ 4

5. PDA – Public Document Area 5

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9. California Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report 9

10. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2014 August 4, 2014 Jenna Canseco, DNV GL California Residential Replacement Lamp Market Status Report: Upstream Lighting Program and Market Activities in California Through 2013 10 WO13: Residential Lighting Process Evaluation and Market Characterization

11. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Overview  Background and Objectives  Data Sources  Report Structure and Contents  Conclusions 11

12. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Report Background and Objectives  Several work orders (WO) collected data regarding California’s replacement lamp market and Upstream Lighting Program (ULP) activities – WO13: Residential Lighting Process Evaluation and Market Characterization – WO21: California Lighting and Appliance Saturation Study – WO28: Residential/Advanced/Upstream Lighting Impact Evaluation  DNV GL developed the report to provide a status update on the residential replacement lamp market in California, including supply- and demand-side market activities through 2013 as well as ULP activities  Report leverages data collected as part of other work orders and provides an opportunity to ensure that this valuable information is shared – Example of WO28 supplier interview results – market status, ULP influence on status, market predictions, etc.  Majority of research for this report was conducted for other purposes 12

13. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Data Sources Data Collection EffortSourceTimingn Residential electric customer phone surveys WO282012 2013 791 800 Retail store shelf surveysWO282012 2012-13 2013 200 201 Shopper intercept surveysWO282012 2013 472 350 In-home lighting inventoriesWO21 06/08 study* 2012 2009 1,987 1,223 Supplier phone interviewsWO28201333 Lamp choice modelWO28-- Numerous other data sources-Multiple- 13 Data Sources * Impact evaluation of 2006-2008 ULP

14. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Organization of the Report 1.Introduction 2.Data Sources 3.Market Context 4.Market Supply 5.Market Demand 6.Market Penetration 7.Remaining Installation Potential for Energy-Efficient Lamps 8.Projected Lamp Technology Choices Under Changed Regulatory and Market Conditions 9.Conclusions 14 Report Structure

15. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Organization of the Report 15 Report Structure  Report also has six appendices: – Appendix A: Bibliography – Appendix B: Shelf Survey Weights – Appendix C: Additional Data Tables: Shelf Survey Results – Appendix D: Additional Data Tables: Market Penetration Results – Appendix E: Additional Data Tables: Remaining Installation Potential for Energy- Efficient Lamps by IOU Service Territory – Appendix F: Summary of Reviewer Comments and Author Responses – To be added after comments received on draft report

16. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Chapter 3: Market Context 16 Report Structure  Describes: – Lamp efficacy regulations – Lamp quality standards – California Long-Term Energy Efficiency Strategic Plan – California IOU residential lighting energy-efficiency programs

17. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Chapter 4: Market Supply 17 Report Structure  Describes: – Lamp suppliers – Lamp availability – Lamp diversity – Lamp pricing – Market barriers

18. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Chapter 5: Market Demand 18 Report Structure  Describes: – Lamp awareness and purchases – CFL awareness, purchases, storage, and disposal – Lamp purchasing decisions – Lamp installation intentions – Consumer awareness of EISA

19. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Chapter 6: Market Penetration 19 Report Structure  Describes: – Sockets per household – Lamp installation – Lamp storage

20. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Chapter 7: Remaining Installation Potential for EE Lamps 20 Report Structure  Describes: – Change in remaining potential between 2009 and 2012 – Remaining potential by installation location (2012) – Remaining potential by control type (2012)

21. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Chapter 8: Projected Lamp Technology Choices Under Changed Regulatory and Market Conditions 21 Report Structure  Describes the lamp choices consumers would have made in 2012 and 2013 under different market conditions  Models 5 different scenarios (each building on those that precede it): – Baseline (approximate market conditions in 2012-2013) – Eliminate traditional incandescent A-lamps – Expected as a result of AB 1109 and EISA – Eliminate IOU incentives basic spiral CFLs and CFL A-lamps – Possible given CPUC direction to IOUs – Decrease LED lamp prices by $5 each – Decrease LED lamp prices by $10 each – Market predictions suggest reduced LED lamp prices in the future

22. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Conclusions 22 Conclusions 1.CFL installations increased among consumers between 2009 and 2012, but retail stocking declined—particularly in big box stores—possibly as a result of decreased ULP support for CFLs between 2006-2008 and 2010-2012. 2.Largely driven by changes in big box stores, the overall quantities of replacement lamp stock declined in retail stores between 2012 and 2013, but the diversity of products increased. 3.CFL awareness and purchase rates declined between 2012 and 2013, but awareness and purchase rates for other lamp technologies—including EISA- compliant halogen lamps and LED lamps—held steady or increased. Several factors may be driving these trends. 4.California’s LED replacement lamp market was still in its infancy in 2013. Key market barriers included lamp price, lack of availability, and lack of consumer familiarity with LED lamps. 5.Overall average LED lamp prices remained stable between 2012 and 2013 in California retail stores, largely because of a shift away from lamps with the lowest light output and toward lamps in the middle and higher-brightness ranges between years. Within each lumen bin except the lowest (<310 lumens), average LED lamp prices declined.

23. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 Conclusions 23 Conclusions 6.The effects of EISA and AB 1109 on energy-efficient lamp sales and stocking are unclear, but the regulations may have contributed to decreased stocking and sales of CFLs. 7.EISA and AB 1109 drove increases in halogen lamps’ market presence between 2012 and 2013, but halogen lamp installations were still low in 2012. 8.As of 2012, there remained substantial potential for additional energy-efficient lamp installations among PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E residential electric customers. 9.Of the CFLs and LED lamps purchased in 2012 and 2013, the majority were acquired to replace inefficient lamp technologies (such as incandescent or halogen lamps) or to fill empty sockets. 10.The quantity of lamps in storage among PG&E, SCE and SDG&E residential electric customers averaged roughly 10 lamps per household in 2009 and 2012, and the share of stored lamps comprised by CFLs versus incandescent lamps changed little between years.

24. DNV GL © 2014 08/04/2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER www.dnvgl.com 24 Jenna Canseco, Principal Consultant DNV GL – Energy Oakland, CA Email: jennifer.canseco@dnvgl.comjennifer.canseco@dnvgl.com Tel: 510-891-0446 x44121 Questions?

25. Adjourn www.energydataweb.com/cpuc 8/4 Draft report posted on PDA 8/18 Comments due on PDA Contact: jeorge.tagnipes@cpuc.ca.gov 25