1. Development or Environment? Tradeoff Analysis Framework Jetse Stoorvogel, John Antle, Andre de Jager, Alejandra Mora Valleja, Gerdien Meijerink

2. A question How does a declining fertilizer price affect Kenyan agriculture?

3. Traditional agricultural research Single discipline Field level

4. Integrated analysis- Nutrient dynamics

5. Questions ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Policy document s Disciplinary research Stakeholders

6. No single tool Given a change in demand where will land use changes take place? A successful experiment: where do similar agro- ecological conditions prevail?

7. Toolbox of science ?

8. Toolbox Criteria for the selection of tools Question Data availability Expected answer

9. The tradeoff analysis model The Tradeoff Analysis framework is a tool to model agricultural production systems by integrating spatial data and disciplinary simulation models. It helps scientific teams to quantify and visualize tradeoffs between key indicators under alternative policy, technology and environmental scenarios of interest to policy decision makers and other stakeholders.

10. Indicators  Economic indicators  Production indicators  Social indicators  Environmental indicators

11. Environmental quality Agricultural productivity Trade-offs The variation represents the heterogeneity in environmental conditions, prices of agricultural inputs and outputs, field sizes, etc.

12. Environmental quality Agricultural productivity Scenarios Determine the shift in the tradeoff curve as a result of: changes in technology policy interventions

13. How do we accomplish this? Stakeholder consultation Data collection Model development Interactive simulation Results Slight Severe Tillage erosion

14. The application

15. Changes in soil fertility

16. Nutrient balances for Embu farming systems

17. CLUE results Baseline scenario Current situation Equitable growth

18. The Machakos case study

19. The Machakos case - indicators Indicators Economic indicators Soil fertility decline Poverty Food security Sources Stakeholder meetings Policy documents

20. The Machakos case – Data collection Common problem Answers are expected soon Data collection is expensive Activities Data collection methods Explore available data Minimum data set approaches

21. The Machakos case – Data collection Machakos Climate interpolation Digital soil mapping Nutmon datasets

22. Objective:expected production (important driving factor) Data: Fertilizer Use Recommendation Program Model: DSSAT Results:Expected productivity Model development: (1) crop growth

23. Results: (1) Expected productivities Maize production Bean production

24. Objective:Describe decision making process population of farmers Data: Farm surveys (Nutmon) Model: Econometric production models Results:Simulation model describing decision making process Model development: (2) production models

25. Objective:Quantify the effect of management decisions on the environment Data: Field experiments Model: Nutmon Results:Change in soil fertility Model development: (3) environmental impact

26. Results: The current situation Nitrogen depletion Net returns (Ksh/Yr)

27. Results: The tradeoff curve Nitrogen depletion Poverty index

28. Nitrogen depletion Poverty index Base scenario Manure Fertilizer price Manure + fertilizer price Maize productivity Results: Technology scenarios

29. Results: Village effects

30. Gaming environments

31. Low High Poverty Gaming environments

32. Low High Poverty Gaming environments

33. Low High Poverty Gaming environments

34. Pathways of poverty Manure production Maize price +100% +50% Low High Poverty

35. Pathways of nutrient depletion Manure production Maize price +100% +50% Low High Depletion

36. Other applications

37. From application to policy Reactive: Constructive: TOA cases Policy document s TOA analysis Policy brief TOA analysis Policy document s

38. Model complexity Data Results Crop growth ManagementEnvironment Complexity DSSAT Nutmon MDSA TOA-full

39. © Wageningen UR http://www.tradeoffs.nl http://www.tradeoffs.montana.edu