1. W ORKSHOP MINNI Roma, 17-18 aprile 2013 GAINS-Italy Giovanni Vialetto, Tiziano Pignatelli Technical Unit on Environment Technologies

2. New model (From RAINS-Italy to GAINS-Italy) New model (From RAINS-Italy to GAINS-Italy) Scenario updates (both national and regional) Scenario updates (both national and regional) Impact Maps updated (more meteorological years, new concentration indicators) Impact Maps updated (more meteorological years, new concentration indicators) Gains-Italy on-line (remotely accessible by external users) Gains-Italy on-line (remotely accessible by external users) Project’s Results 2

3. The MINNI Modelling System Atmospheric Transfer Matrixes AMS: Atmospheric Modelling System AMS-Italy GAINS-Italy GAINS: Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies Emission Projections 3

4.  Since many years, at international level, Air Pollution and Climate Change are addressed simultaneously, in order to assess synergies and side-effects; climate measures are normally considered into CLE scenarios.  IIASA updated the RAINS model in order to take into account the Greenhouse Gases considered by the Kyoto Protocol, expanding RAINS into GAINS (Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies).  RAINS-Italy model updated according the GAINS evolution in order to maintain compatibility and comparability in national and international analyses Towards GAINS-Italy 4

5. Extension of RAINS to GHGs PMSO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 CO 2 CH 4 N2ON2O PFCs HFCs SF 6 Health impacts: PM  O 3  Vegetation impacts: O 3  Acidification  Eutrophication  Radiative Forcing: - direct  - via aerosol  - via OH  5

6. Non Technical Measures Harmonization with national /local emission inventories Control Strategy definition INPUT SCENARIO DEFINITION (CLE, MTFR...) Emission inventory Technical Measures Activity input data scenario GAINS-Italy CostsDep&Conc maps Health&Env maps Emission Scenarios SO 2, NO x, NH 3, COV, PM + 6 GHGs Dep S, N (ox, red), Conc PM 2.5, PM 10, NO 2 LER per PM 2.5, Premature Deaths O 3 Ecosystems (acidification, eutrophication) OPTIMIZATION OUTSIDE GAINS MODEL Gains-Italy model 6

7. News of GAINS-Italy model Main new characteristics in GAINS-Italy: Input energy data structure more detailed Emission factors for greenhouse gases (e.g. from IPCC and/or national emission inventory). Black Carbon Emission Factors introduced. Reduction GHGs measures approached diversely from the end-of-pipe abatement technologies in RAINS 7

8. Power Plants – New structure Power Plants ExistingNewIGCCExistingNewIGCCExistingNewExistingNewIGCCExistingNewIGCCExistingNew Other boiler types Renewable Hydro Nuclear ELE Heat NEW_CCS (other fuels ) ExistingIGCC Total (energy balance) ExistingIGCCExisting Small Plants ( < 50 MWe) NEW_L Large Plants ( BC, HC fuel ) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Large Plants ( >50 MWe) BC1 BC2 HC1-3 Other fuels NEW (other fuels ) MOD ( BC, HC fuel ) MOD CCS ( BC, HC fuel ) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (CCS) ENG Plants with internal combustion engines (HF, MD,GAS) MOD = Modern power plants (supercritical, ultrasupercritical) 8

9. National and regional scenarios Some national and regional scenarios have been developed, in order to take into account the changes in the economic trends and the energy scenarios submitted to EU, by MATTM and MISE, in the framework of the climate policy analysis:  CP e NO-CP scenarios, that take (or do not take) into account the measures introduced in the context of the “ climate & energy package 2008 ”  Baseline scenario 2012, that takes into account measures established with Decision CIPE April 2012.  SEN scenario 2013, that takes into account the National Energy Strategy, recently developed by MISE 9

10. SEN & Gothenburg target 10

11. SEN & Climate target 11

12. Impact Maps  Different meteorological years considered (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007 + average year).  The concentration maps of total particulate consider not only primary and inorganic secondary PM, but also some natural sources and organic secondary PM.  Concentration Indicator of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) introduced 12

13. Maps of PM 2.5 concentrations 2007 PM 2.5 concentrations at 2010 with different ATM years, No Climate Policy Scenario 2003 1999 2005 13

14. GAINS-Italy on line In the framework of the agreement between ENEA and MATTM, GAINS-Italy model is now accessible on line, by external users (e.g. regional experts) to allow the development of autonomously generated emission scenarios and to facilitate the dissemination of results about the analysis carried out by ENEA. GAINS-Italy is accessible by the link: http://gains-it.bologna.enea.it/gains/IT/index.login?login or from the MINNI project site http://www.minni.org/ following the link to GAINS-Italy online 14

15. GAINS-Italy on line 15

16. GAINS-Italy on line External users to GAINS-Italy Online are divided in two categories: GAINS_Viewers have access to all the public scenarios with the privileges: read and download scenarios data. (50 external viewers registered) GAINS_Users have the privileges of the GAINS_Viewers and, in addition, may also create/edit new owner scenarios with their own input data and specific parameters read, download and edit/create scenarios (owner scenarios only). 16

17. Conclusions  GAINS_Italy has dramatically improved its features and characteristics with respect the previous version (RAINS_Italy) of the model.  ENEA experts, in cooperation with IIASA, aim at maintaining the edge of the scientific knowledge behind the model, following the evolution of the GAINS_Europe Model, with the ultimate objective of providing the best scientific underpinning to the Air Pollution and Climate Change policy development, within the national and international (EU & LRTAP) contexts.  GAINS_Italy Online offer a powerful and flexible (free) tool to the Regional Experts and Administration Policy Makers for development and assessment of Air Pollution policies, at local level, within a coordinated and coherent framework. 17