1. The transition challenge for hydrogen vehicles; analysis of adoption dynamics Jeroen Struben*) MIT Sloan School of Management April 30 2004 *) Many thanks to John Sterman for support and discussions throughout

2. Hydrogen vehicles: a certain trajectory?

3. Agenda ●Context: the Hydrogen transition challenge ●Adoption structure for the vehicle propulsion platform ●Reduced/partial models analysis ●Insights and future work

4. Modeling the hydrogen transition challenge - motivation ●Formal model literature on technology adoption –diffusion (Bass ’69, Rogers ‘62) –industry evolution (Abernathy/Utterback ’78,…) –learning/scale/spillover (…) –increasing returns and lock-in (Arthur ’89) –energy modeling (Farrell ’03)

5. Scope of the hydrogen challenge

6. The adoption structure for vehicle propulsion technologies ●Extensions to Basic Bass Model –Multiple platforms/vehicle types –Familiarity –Forgetting –Valence with attractiveness (experience, WOM,..) Basic Bass Structure

7. Dynamic Hypothesis

11. Case 1: first order model ●Assumptions –1 platform –drivers held constant –Familiarity dynamics are independent

12. 1 st order model - stock and flow structure

13. The effect of exposures on familiarity loss exposure exposures on

14. Analysis: dynamics of familiarity

18. Case 2: drivers and familiarity ●Endogenous adoption ●4 th order model ●Competition between entrant (e.g. hydrogen) and incumbent (e.g. ICE) ●Introduce “relative attractiveness”

19. 2 nd order model

20. Marketing effectiveness +

21. Time trajectory 2 nd order model of entrant ●Reduce to 2 nd order through:

22. Analysis of 2 nd order model: phase-plane

23. Modes of behavior for entrant – equilibrium search

24. Familiarity of non-drivers of platform 2 (fa2) 0.4 Drivers of platform 2 (d2 =1-d1) Trajectories in phase plane view with low marketing effectiveness Marketing effectiveness +

25. Familiarity of non-drivers of platform 2 (fa2) 0.4 Drivers of platform 2 (d2 =1-d1) Trajectories in phase plane view with low vs high marketing effectiveness

26. How long to sponsor the hydrogen platform!?

27. Conclusions / Insights ●Innovation systems require attention beyond mere acknowledgement of lock-in/dominance/… ●Identify role of particular loops/structures –Here we have modeled and analyzed the more interpretive side adoption ●Can already identify policies on what prevents/ promotes diffusion –word-of-mouth through non-drivers –less efficient hybrids could grow faster and takeover (as no infrastructure, spillover issues)

28. Future Steps ●Extend study in similar fashion –developments in infrastructure –spillovers –organizational/institutional increasing returns ●Historical analysis of the 19 th century transition towards the horseless age ●Formulating research questions…