1. Roskilde University – Zero Regio Mantova PCC11 2008 Funded by EU FP6 05-05-2015 Anders Chr. Hansen Can HFC in automotive use contribute to EU goals? Economic viability, competitiveness of HFC? If not: Taxes and subsidies But only if supporting societal priorities and goals Quantifying the reasons for tax-favoring HFC

2. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 2 Societal priorities and goals Cost effectiveness Energy efficiency Eco-efficiency Supply security Can HFC in transport contribute to EU goals? Focus on 2015-2025

3. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 3 Hydrogen cost comparison based on oil price of $25/bbl Source: The Alternative Fuels Contact Group (2004)

4. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 4 Will NG based H2 be delinked from the oil price? Figure 1. Natural Gas and Oi Prices 1976-2005.

5. Competitiveness threshold model 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 5 Oil price ($(2005)/bbl) Cost (€/km) Petrol and diesel Natural gas based H 2 Wind, nuclear, etc. based H 2 188105 Early studies Thresholds

6. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 6 Which competing technology? TtW energy efficiency advantage JRC EUCAR and CONCAVE (2006): Direct hydrogen0% Direct hydrogen hybrid-11% Gasoline PISI hybrid72% Gasoline/ethanol DISI hybrid73% Diesel/biodiesel DICI+DPF hybrid55% CNG PISI48% LH2 PISI40% Argonne National Laboratory (2007): CIDI Vehicle (CD, BD, FTD, DME,RFG)71% Gasoline etc. hybrids (EtOH, MeOH, NG, RFG)53% Diesel etc. hybrids (BD, FTD, or CD)33% Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles0% Battery Electric Vehicles-34%

7. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 7 Eaten up by WtT conversion loss? WorstBest TtW efficiency advantage50% WtT (“system”) efficiency62%70% WtW efficiency gain1%14%

8. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 8 Passenger Car Density 2004 (Cars/sq.km) Source: Hansen (2007) based on Eurostat

9. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 9 Fuel taxes 2004 (€/GJ) Petrol Diesel

10. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 10 Fuel taxes move the competitiveness threshold Diesel and petrol (€/GJ) 010 20 Hydrogen (€/GJ)010000 Natural gas (€/GJ)0010816 NGWinNGWinNGWinNGWinNGWin Best case ($/bbl)1881058685174451154542-16 Worst case ($/bbl)54217032715059011045211036249

11. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 11 Model from Sustainable Mobility Project WBCSD and IEA Only passenger cars in Europe Levels are debatable since assumptions would probably be different today But we only look for changes

12. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 12 Scenarios 1) A reference scenario Almost only gasoline and diesel Market shares of hybrids, LPG/CNG, and EV negligible 2) NG based HFC scenario Introduction of HFC in passenger car market is advanced 41% of passenger car sales in 2050 hydrogen is based on natural gas 3) Low carbon HFC scenario Like NG based scenario, but H 2 is produced with GHG emission free or light methods Low carbon H 2 99% market share in 2025

13. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 13 NG based HFC scenario GHG emissions

14. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 14 Low carbon HFC scenario GHG emissions

15. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 15 NG based HFC scenario PM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO)

16. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 16 Low carbon HFC scenario PM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO)

17. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 17 PM 2.5 deaths (loss of statistical life expectancy) 2000 2020 after EU Air Strategy and Maximum Climate Action Source: EEA (2006)

18. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 18 Concentration of remaining reserves Data source: BP statistical review database 2006

19. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 19 Any reasons for pursuing natural gas based hydrogen in the introduction phase? Dynamic effects throughout the fuel chain (and commodity chain for equipment) Pull forces User-producer interaction Economies of scope External economies of scale (cluster effects) ….

20. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 20 Why subsidies or lower taxes to H2? Case for tax-favors modest for NGH 2, but strong for CO2-lean H 2 production HFC can contribute to achievement of societal goals: Even in 2015-2025 if renewable and nuclear energy 2020s: coal with CCS, photovoltaic, HT electrolysis, algae.. HFC limited contribution if supply based on natural gas supply, in particular without CCS The tax levels already existing in Europe are sufficient If designed to reflect contributions to societal goals even more so: Taxation of energy inputs

21. 5.5.2015 Anders Chr. Hansen 21 Recent EECG Research Papers on HFC in automotive use from Department of Environmental, Social and Spatial Change (ENSPAC) at Roskilde University Hansen, A. C. (2007) Where in Europe Will Hydrogen Become Competitive First? http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3012http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3012 Hansen, A. C. (2007) When Will Hydrogen Become a Competitive Transport Fuel? http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3011http://hdl.handle.net/1800/3011 Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Taxation. http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2991 http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2991 Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Potential Contibution of Hydrogen to Societal Goals. http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2979http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2979 Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Supply Security of Hydrogen as Transport Fuel.http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2978http://hdl.handle.net/1800/2978 Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology in EU LDV Transport: Potential Contribution to Environmental Goals. http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2434 http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2434 Hansen, A. C. (2007) The International Oil Price and Hydrogen Competitiveness. http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2433http://rudar.ruc.dk/handle/1800/2433