1. Presented by Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D. Sequence of Disabilities Network Analysis Research conducted by Cari Levy M.D., Manaf Zargoush Ph.D., Raya E. Kheirbek M.D., Allison E. Williams Ph.D., Arthur R. Williams Ph.D., Janusz Wojtusiak Ph.D., Bryce Sutton Ph.D., Etienne Pracht Ph.D., Bruce Citron Ph.D., Lisa Argyros and Phan Giang Ph.D.

2. I Know, You Know We All Know We Agree

3. Causal Network Models: Association, Sequence, Counterfactual, Mechanism

4. Causal Network Models: Association, Sequence, Counterfactual, Mechanism

5. Sequence of disabilities has been the focus of cultural and scientific inquiries

6. “His acts being seven ages … The sixth age shifts into the lean and slippered pantaloon, with spectacles on nose and pouch on side; his youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide for his shrunk shank; and his big manly voice, turning again toward childish treble, pipes and whistles in his sound. Last scene of all, that ends this strange eventful history, is second childishness and mere oblivion, sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.” Shakespeare: As You Like It: Act 2, Scene 7, Page 6 6 7 5

7. Katz, Ford, Moskowitz, Jackson, & Jaffe 1963 Bathing Walking Dressing Transfer Toileting Feeding 50

8. Dunlop, Hughes, & Manheim 1997 Bathing Walking Dressing Transfer Toileting Feeding

9. Spector & Fleishman 1998 Bathing Walking Dressing Transfer Toileting Feeding

10. Ferrucci, Guralnik, Cecchi et al 1998 Bathing Walking Dressing Transfer Toileting Feeding We excluded from this list cutting toenails, shopping, use of steps, heavy housework, cooking hot meal, moving around outside, washing arms/face and light housework which were not studied across studies. Bathing includes showering or full wash and not simply face wash.

11. Jagger, Arthur, Spiers, Clarke 2001 Bathing Walking Dressing Transfer Toileting Feeding Transferring refers to transfer from bed and not simply transfer from chair or toilet

12. Kingston, Collerton, Davies et al. 2012 Bathing Walking Dressing Transfer Toileting Feeding Transferring refers to transfer from bed and not simply transfer from chair or toilet. Toileting includes transfer from toilet.

13. Gill & Kurland 2003

14. A Multiple Path Network Model Is Needed

15. Admissions 79.88% White, 96.34% Men, 74.36 years (SD=11.44) Old at 1st Assessment

16. 25 Combinations 84% of All Cases All DataToo Much

17. B=Bathe, W=Walk, G=Groom, D=Dress, T=Toilet

18. B=Bathe, W=Walk, G=Groom, D=Dress, T=Toilet, L=Bowel Continence, S=Transfer, U=Urinary Continence and F=Feeding disabilities

19. Trimmed Mean Days to Partial Recovery of One Disability Insurance

20. Still Too Confusing Statistical Summary

21. Learn New Network Model Relationship of 9 Disabilities

22. Nodes Are Connected Based on Associations

23. Direction is Set Based on Independence Structure

24. Cross Section Analysis Longitudinal Analysis Algorithms for Learning Network Models Algorithms for Dynamic Modeling: Confusing

25. Network Model

26. Cross Section Analysis Longitudinal Analysis Learn Network Model Subject to Longitudinal Constraints Do as Humans Do

27. Probabilistic Contrast Do as Humans Do

29. Numbers show the correlation between two disabilities. Dashed red arrows show the maximum likelihood path.

31. Same Many Pathways from Start to End

32. Analytical Progress Use Longitudinal Constraints

33. Clinical Relevance Experience of Majority

34. Policy Implications Don’t Give Up at 100 Days