1. Agenda Bolivia and Ecuador display a relatively high probability of having a civil war. Why? What can Brazil do to prevent civil conflict and to contain its impact should it break out?

2. In which South American states is the probability of civil war highest? Population size Mountainous (1-5 scale) 5 4 3 2 1 GDP /Capita ($) 5,000 10,000 15,000 ARG VEN URG CHL COL SUR PER ECU BOL PAR GUY

3. How can we prevent and contain an eventual civil war in Ecuador and Bolivia? 1.Increase economic aid to Ecuador and Bolivia (prevention) 2.Set-up Bolivia and Ecuador-specific negotiation teams (prevention and containment) 3.Strengthen security along our frontier with Bolivia (containment)