2. Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan
By:
Ashfaq Mahmood
3 June 2014

3. Organization of Presentation
Water Resources of Kabul River
Potential Projects by Afghanistan on Kabul River
Pakistan’s Vulnerability
Climate Change
Conflict Potential
Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation

4. Kabul-Chitral River Basin

5. Schematic Diagram of Kabul River

6. Water Sources of Kabul river
Sr No
Sub-basin
Billion m3
MAF
% of total flow at border 1
Logar-Upper Kabul
0.5
0.4
2.5 2
Panjsher
3.3
2.6
16.7 3
Chitral
10.5
8.5
54.5 4
Lower Kabul (including 1-3) at border)
19.3
15.6
100 5
Net generated within Afghanistan
8.8
7.1
45.5 6
Availability at Attock
23.5 19 7
Rabi
Kharif
4.9
18.5 15

7. Storage and Power Potential of Kabul River
Sr No
Sub-basin
B m3
MAF MW
Water Demand 1
Panjsher
2.19
1.8
410
1/3 rd of water availability 2
Logar-Upper Kabul
1.31
1.1
Twice the water availability 3
Lower Kabul
1.3
1.0
761 4
Total
4.8
3.9
1171

8. Power Projects on Kabul River

9. Kabul Stream Flow (Av. Monthly)

10. Pakistan’s Vulnerability on Kabul River
Water Contribution to Indus = 23.5 bm3(19) MAF
Water Received at the Border =19.3 bm3 (15.6 MAF)
Contribution of Chitral River = bm3 (8.5 MAF)
Contribution from Kabul and other Tributaries = 8.8 bm3 (7.1 MAF)
Projected Future Use Potential in Afghanistan = 3.8 bm3 (3.1 MAF)
Net Future Availability across the border = 15.4 bm3(12.5 MAF)
Existing Rabi and Kharif uses will suffer.

11. Effects of Climate Change
Glaciers in the Pamir and Hindu Kush mountains shrunk by 30 % in the last half century
Rising temperatures/global warming will result in at least 10% reduction in precipitation in the next 50 Years.
Increased summer flows in shorter time spans accentuating floods in next few years. It will be followed by shortages in the long run.
Poverty, food and electricity prices, urban migration affecting millions of people on the cards.
At present severe drought at least once in years. This frequency will in increase.

12. Conflict Potential Threat to Existing Uses in Pakistan
13 potential dams in Afghanistan with storage capacity of 4.93 bm3 (4 MAF). Early Kharif and Rabi crops likely to suffer
Rising water demand in Afghanistan for urban, mining, irrigation and environmental flow (3.9 billion m3/year)
Threat of climate change—scarcity. Major brunt to be faced by Pakistan.
Possible diversion of Chitral River by Pakistan
Poor watershed management
Lack of hydro metrological data gathering and sharing
Lack of studies on ground water.
Outside Promptings, vested interests.

13. Hydro-Diplomacy with Afghanistan
Promote Cooperation and Equitable Sharing of Benefits:
Forming Stake Holder’s Fraternity, exchange visits and interactions
Sharing of Knowledge and Experience
Joint Projects , Joint Ventures, Joint Studies
Extend Supporting Hand, establishing water institutions,
Data Collection and Management
Funding for cooperative activities
Media Management
Institutional Arrangements- - The Driver of Cooperation:
Afghan Cell with appropriate funding and staff (re-locate)
Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Commission for Water Cooperation
Formulation of Treaty/Agreement in an atmosphere of mutual cooperation and understanding.

14. Conclusions
Embark upon a Water Cooperation Initiative to precede negotiations of Treaty.
Set up Joint Commission.
Provide funds to support cooperative activities.

15. THANK YOU